Article/Hong Hao, Sina Financial Columnist [Weibo]
This year's two year market launched ahead of schedule, and had successfully completed a round of effective air tight market before the Spring Festival, especially the two main hot sectors: banks and real estate, which had successfully reached the operating target before the Spring Festival, so there was a fall back after the Spring Festival. At present, the short-term correction has been basically in place, so the main force will choose to take the market back when the two sessions are held, which can more arouse the enthusiasm of investors and the enthusiasm of peripheral funds to enter the market.
How will the two sessions of the stock market evolve this year? From the perspective of the two sessions in history, during the "two sessions" each year, China's stock market rose more than fell. From 1992 to 2012, the Shanghai Stock Index rose 14 times and fell 7 times during the "two sessions", with a rising probability of 66.7%. Since the two sessions usually open at the beginning of March, from the performance of the Shanghai Stock Index in March, since 1992, it has risen in 14 years and fallen in 7 years, with a rising probability of 66.7%. The performance of the stock market in the two weeks before the festival was even better. Since the Asian financial crisis in 1998, in the first two weeks of the "two sessions", there were only four declines, with a rise probability of 73.3%. So, what's the difference between the two sessions this year and previous years?
1、 The economic situation is more complex
This year's two sessions of the stock market are facing a more complex economic situation. The background of the slowdown of global economic growth actually reflects the confusion of transformation and upgrading that human society is facing today's global economy. How will the economy develop in the future? It reflects the dilemma of how human society will develop in the future. Human society faces the confusion of spirit, culture and belief. The dilemma of global economic transformation is to solve how to build a win-win platform for human development for all sectors of human society.
The bottleneck of China's economic development is overcapacity, a large number of low-level redundant construction, high monopoly and corruption have seriously restricted the creativity needed for economic development, and the inflation caused by the huge real estate bubble has caused huge pressure on people's lives, thus losing their enthusiasm for innovation and creation. People are just struggling to make a living. When a large number of people have lost their enthusiasm for innovation and creation, the improvement of economic quality can only be on paper. If China wants to break through the bottleneck of economic development, it must reduce people's life pressure and fully mobilize people's innovation ability and creativity. To do this, we need to break the monopoly of all industries and open them to the people.
2、 Real estate tax is looming
Recently, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council convened the last executive meeting of the State Council during his term of office to study and deploy the regulation of the real estate market. The author believes that the "Five National Rules" issued at this meeting is a summary of the regulation policies in the past two years, and also a recognition of the tone of the later real estate market regulation. And determining to expand the scope of the pilot reform of individual housing property tax is also an important part of the "Five National Rules".
In the face of the fact that China's huge real estate bubble has seriously restricted economic development, the only way to do this is to quickly connect the real estate information of the whole country and quickly introduce the real estate tax. Moreover, it is necessary to tax all existing houses and impose heavy taxes on vacant houses.
3、 Accelerating the entry of long-term funds into the market
The management said that this year it would continue to accelerate the promotion of long-term funds into the market and strengthen the power of institutional investors. On the one hand, we should continue to encourage overseas pension funds, charitable funds, sovereign funds and other long-term funds to increase investment in China's capital market and improve the level of market opening to the outside world; On the other hand, it is necessary to promote the development and growth of the local institutional investors and create better conditions for local institutional investors and long-term funds to invest in the capital market.
Among them, in terms of insurance funds, the person in charge said that at present, the proportion of insurance companies investing in stocks, equity funds and other assets is only 10% of the total assets, and there is still a large investment space compared with the current ceiling stipulated by the laws and regulations. Next, the CSRC [Weibo] We will actively cooperate with the relevant departments to continue to improve the relevant policies for the use of insurance funds and increase the proportion of insurance funds invested in equity assets.
With regard to the relevant issues in the development of the wealth management market, the head of the relevant department of the CSRC said that this year, we will continue to accelerate the promotion of long-term funds into the market, strengthen the strength of institutional investors, and support the issuance and listing of qualified wealth management institutions, including fund management companies.
The author believes that whether the wealth management market can develop healthily and rapidly depends on the pace of opening to the inward people, rather than opening to the outside world. If the domestic wealth management market cannot be opened to the inward people to cultivate wealth management institutions and wealth management senior talents, the effect of solving long-term capital market entry will not be good. Wealth management investors want real investment returns, but there are too few investment experts in China who can bring real investment returns to investors. Without high-level investment experts, wealth management becomes empty talk.
4、 Financial real estate has short-term resistance to rebound
After a round of decline, stocks in the financial real estate sector show signs of stabilizing in the short term, and the short-term financial real estate sector will have a resistant rebound. The mainstream of this round of rebound is the financial real estate sector. The financial real estate sector is characterized by its large size. It is impossible to complete the shipment at a high level at one time. For this reason, the short-term financial real estate sector will have rebound requirements after a round of rapid decline. After the rebound, the main force will have the opportunity to reduce its holdings again.
5、 After washing the dishes, the anti pumping will be expanded
The short-term market index has retreated to the historical transaction intensive area around 2300 points. The market index will be effectively supported around 2300 points, and the 2300 points area will become the best sniping location for multi-party effective sniping. For the game oriented Chinese securities market, it is more pragmatic to think and judge the Chinese stock market from the perspective of game. At present, it is the most realistic choice for many parties to launch effective sniping around 2300 points. If they choose to continue to kill down, it is obvious that the market has no short-term short power, unless there is a major negative policy, It is impossible to introduce major negative policies during the two sessions. Therefore, it is the best policy to draw back more.
To sum up, the difference between the two sessions of the NPC and CPPCC this year in previous years is that the two sessions of the NPC and CPPCC launched the market in advance this year, and had successfully completed an effective round of air tight market before the Spring Festival, especially the two major mainstream hot sectors: banks and real estate, which had successfully reached the operating target before the Spring Festival, so there was a fall back after the Spring Festival. At present, the short-term correction has been basically in place, so the main force will choose to take the market back when the two sessions are held, which can more arouse the enthusiasm of investors and the enthusiasm of peripheral funds to enter the market. Therefore, it is certain that the short-term washing of the market index has been completed and the anti pumping market is about to start.
(The author of this article introduces: Researcher of the Securities and Futures Research Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics, Chief Financial Scientist of the China Financial Think Tank, and Secretary General of the China Economic Fund Council.)
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