Experts say that we should not expect the property tax to reduce the house price because Japan and South Korea did not reduce the house price
(By Ma Yuecheng)
Some people say that South Korea and Japan also levy property taxes, but the housing prices in Japan and South Korea are also very high. The first thought that came out of my head was that the other day, I wrote an article saying that the bursting of the Japanese bubble sounded an alarm bell for China's property market, so someone immediately jumped out and said that Japan's situation was different from China's, there was no comparability, and the Japanese bubble would inevitably burst. China's situation was special, and it could never burst. Why is there no comparability between China and Japan in terms of the factors that can make house prices fall? Isn't this selective comparison?
On the issue of property tax, there has been great progress recently. Everyone seems to see the hope of housing price decline, and there are many analysis and forecasts. However, some people say that the property tax will not reduce the house price. Of course, there are many reasons. Indeed, in general, in foreign countries, the property tax is the main source of funds for providing public services to local communities. They say that China's property tax is certainly not intended to serve the community. They are right, and China's property tax is obviously not intended for this purpose, Because China's community transformation and community services have funding channels.
Another argument is that the real estate tax replaces the land finance, because people have always said that the local government's financial expenditure now mainly depends on the income from land sales, as everyone has said, but how can land be sold endlessly? Do you think you can still sell them in waves? So this country will not always be a big construction site, never have peace? But can people eat tiles and reinforced concrete after being torn apart? Can construction waste be used as food? Thirty years ago, when there was no real estate market, the land was allocated, and there was no question of how much money the government should pay for land sales. Didn't the government operate normally at that time? There is neither foreign debt nor domestic debt, the society is stable, and science and technology are developing at a high speed. Therefore, land is not the lifeline of Chinese governments at all levels.
Therefore, the normal explanation, or the accurate explanation, is that the real estate tax is to integrate the chaotic transaction taxes in the real estate field. Because it is too miscellaneous and chaotic, it needs to be integrated. It does not mean to increase taxes, nor does it mean to increase the burden on people's housing. In order to curb speculation and prevent property market investment from driving up prices. It is necessary to curb the financial attributes of real estate and return the house to the "habitability" function.
To achieve this goal, the only way is to increase the difficulty of buying and selling houses and set high thresholds, such as extending the holding time, which means five years' ban on sales. This can also be achieved by increasing the cost of ownership, which is known as the so-called property tax. Therefore, the property tax has the function of curbing housing prices. Although it can't be said that housing prices have dropped after the introduction of the property tax, the role of curbing housing prices is certainly irreplaceable.
The state guarantees people's basic housing needs, or in other words, in order to ensure fairness, let people have the same average housing conditions. However, if you want to live in a big house and want several houses, you have to pay a certain cost. The country can make every household eat affordable food. However, it is certainly unreasonable and unacceptable for you to eat big fish and big meat every day at the same price as people enjoy eating millet porridge. If I pay 10 yuan for a meal and you say you want to spend 1000 yuan, you can have a big meal. If you want to spend 10 yuan for a big meal, it is unacceptable.
Recently, Zhang Yu, the director general manager of the research department of CICC and the director of real estate research in Greater China, released a research report that the property tax is highly positively related to the property value, which is essentially a property tax rather than a regulatory tax. From international experience, most countries set up a real estate tax, which is not the purpose of reducing housing prices. Zhang Yu said, for example, from the experience of the property market in Japan and South Korea, even though these two countries set up property taxes for the purpose of adjusting housing prices, they still failed to achieve the expected effect. South Korea imposed a comprehensive land tax in 1990 and a comprehensive real estate tax in 2005, but the housing price index soared from 40 in 1986 to 105 at the end of 2018.
Japan's property market is a counter example. In 1998, Japan abolished land price tax, which still could not stop the downward trend of the average price of new apartment buildings in the metropolitan area. This shows that the impact of real estate tax on housing prices is very limited. The opinions of experts are very representative, which is also the logic of most people who are bullish on housing prices. However, the situation mentioned by the experts is absolutely not the reason why China cannot levy real estate tax. In 2017, house prices in many parts of China doubled in less than one year, which almost never happened abroad, especially in Japan and South Korea. Isn't this the role of property tax?
For more than 30 years, the housing price in South Korea has risen less than twice. Japan's housing bubble burst in the 1990s, and the national housing market has not recovered in 20 years. Many vacant houses in rural areas have become ownerless houses. The local government even issued a policy of transferring housing for free. Even foreigners can get a house property for free when they are in rural areas in Japan, The real estate is not a local house or a squatter house on the northwest plateau of China, but rather a rather beautiful small building, small wooden house, large villa, some with gardens in front and vegetable gardens behind. Therefore, any statement that denigrates the role of property tax in regulating house prices is not "historical materialism" Thought is not the view of "one divides into two". The real estate tax is coming! Can housing prices be curbed? What's your opinion? [This article was released by the "Ma Yuecheng" account 20190312]
