Sun Hongbin said: If we fall by 30%, we will all die. What do you think?
(By Ma Yuecheng)
Sun Hongbin's influence in the real estate industry is also second to none. The year before last, if there was no offer from Sun Hongbin, Wang Jianlin would not know how to live. Sun Hongbin is a doer. He seldom attends forums in the industry and is unwilling to express his views and opinions. Therefore, compared with other big shots, Sun Hongbin's comments on the property market are rare in the society. There are some people whose companies are not big, but their words carry a lot of weight.
Recently, Country Garden was about to quit the property market. Wanda said it would not buy a suite. Vanke said it would "live". Recently, the news about Evergrande's nationwide price reduction and a 10% price reduction of all the houses was again displayed. And Country Garden has been cutting prices in the early days, and now it is reported that 50% of the staff will be laid off. The exposure of an internal email by Yu Liang also caused a sensation. Yu Liang's view is that it is a long-term decline, but he can't find a clue to do new business. In addition, many luxury residential projects of Taihe in Beijing quietly reduced prices, and a large courtyard reduced prices by ten million yuan.
However, Rongchuang is still expanding in silence, neither withdrawing nor talking about difficulties. Of course, there are a lot of external analysis and comments, but Rongchuang's internal confidence has remained undiminished. Some analysts pointed out that in terms of the debts of Evergrande and Country Garden, as long as the turnover is high and the interest rate of the bank is directly crushed, R&F is the first. Some real estate enterprises have participated in many joint development projects in order to rapidly increase their market share, so it is difficult to fully guarantee the quality of the real estate. Of course, the asset structure of Rongchuang is not better than that of other companies, and its business travel projects from Wanda have not been converted into profitable assets, which is also a concern. People can't help asking, how long can Rongchuang go?
However, Sun Hongbin said at a meeting before the year that house prices would not plummet in the next two or three years. If the overall house price fell by more than 30%, we would all die. It seems that Rongchuang also has a bottom line. That is to say, Sun Hongbin allowed the house price to fall, but not more than 30%. For many places, the house price has not reached the level before 2016. The house price has doubled in a year, but it cannot fall by 30%, that is, it cannot reach the level of 2016. What is the reason? In Sun Hongbin's eyes, in the final analysis, is the house price only rising, not falling?
However, the situation of the Yanjiao property market has proved that it is a fact that the housing prices have been cut by half and none of the real estate enterprises have died. We all know why. [This article was published by the "Ma Yuecheng" account 20190304]
