Banks have been conducting stress tests on the decline of house prices
Wen/Ma Yuecheng
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Before, no one believed that Beijing housing prices would decline! However, Beijing's property market is mainly an investment market and attracts investors from all over the country. This principle is simple, but few people agree with it. A house is worth tens of millions, and monthly payment is worth tens of thousands. If it is not for investment, but for self living, how many people can there be in the country? The main direction of investment is to bet that the house price will rise soon. As long as the house price rises, you can make money by buying. After the 930 regulation and 317 re regulation in Beijing, the investment channel was completely blocked, and the real direction of the property market changed.
According to the recent survey, the proportion of second-hand real estate owners who lowered their prices to low listing has accounted for about 67%, and there are also many people who cut prices by hundreds of thousands or millions at a time. Many investors can't stand it. The monthly supply of tens of thousands of yuan per month has become a drag, and the house price has entered the downward path, that is, the cost increases every day. Some people used to say that house prices would not fall. In fact, this is the smoke screen of investors. It is required that house prices should not rise or fall sharply. However, house prices have been rising all the time. Some people believe that the reason why the house price does not decline is that the government does not want to let the house price decline, or that the decline of house price is to cut off the government's financial path. In fact, this is not the case. This government action is the most in history. Of course, no one wants the house price to fall sharply, which affects too many places. However, if the house price does not rise sharply, it will always rise sharply, and sometimes it will inevitably fall.
From the perspective of the government's policy orientation, the government seems to be acting seriously. In that case, banks may be the worst victims of the housing price slump, and real estate loans account for 20% of the total loans of commercial banks. According to statistics, a 30% drop in house prices will increase the bad debts of banks by 1 trillion yuan. At this time, if the bank goes bankrupt, ordinary people, as depositors, will have a big discount on their deposits in the bank. If you have enough money to invest in buying a house, you will be the direct victim of the collapse of house prices.
In order to protect their own interests, banks are also constantly carrying out stress tests. A few years ago, they said that they can withstand 50% of the decline in house prices. But now the house price has risen a lot, how much can we afford? In fact, banks have always believed that real estate is a good loan, whether it is for real estate enterprises or buyers. However, due to the long development cycle and concentrated projects of small real estate enterprises, if the transformation can not keep up, when the banks take self-protection measures, the capital chain of small enterprises will inevitably break. What do we have to do with the bankruptcy of small real estate enterprises? If we buy his house, the after-sales service will not keep up, and some contract terms will not be fulfilled. More importantly, the domino effect will hurt many people.
In the early 1990s, there was a property market crash in Hainan and Beihai, with prices plummeting and uncompleted buildings everywhere In the depression, no one bought a house or built a house. Although the house price was very low, people worried that the house price would continue to fall, and the house would become less and less valuable. The bank also had no funds to lend to the real estate enterprise, and the real estate loan became the worst loan. Banks and real estate enterprises will enter a hinge state of mutual loss. The buyers are helpless, and the owners have to share the losses and wreckage caused by the uncompleted tail with the developers.
People are most worried about real estate Where can migrant workers find jobs when the fire stops? Where do intermediary managers transform? How can people in relevant upstream and downstream industries continue to work? This is undeniable. In fact, over the years, the government has been trying to adjust the dependence of the economy and employment on real estate, which is also related to the reconstruction of the national social model, the adjustment of industrial structure It may also be time to change the overall transformation of the economy. (By Ma Yuecheng)
