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Project risk

Enterprise noun

Project risk refers to the risk that may lead to project losses Uncertainty , USA project management Master Max Wydman defined it as an event occurring to Project objectives Adversely affected possibility 。

project risk management To best achieve the project objectives, identify, allocate and respond Project life cycle The science and art of internal risk is a comprehensive management activity.

from American Project Management Association （ PMI ）Project management of development Knowledge system PMBOK 2000 pointed out that the contents of project risk management include Project risk management plan 、 Risk identification 、 Qualitative risk analysis 、 Quantitative risk analysis 、 Risk response plan and Risk supervision and control 。 During implementation, project risk management can be simplified into risk identification Risk measurement , formulate countermeasures and Risk monitoring Four step process.

Chinese name: Project risk
Types of words: management activities

Related figures: Max Wiseman
Expert: Three aspects

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project risk management

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Project risk management Is a dynamic working process In this process, various operations of project risks are carried out and carried out in an overlapping way. Project risk identification is an important part of project risk management. If you cannot accurately identify all potential risks faced by the project, you will lose the best opportunity to deal with these risks.

project risk management It refers to the management of a series of uncertain factors affecting the process, efficiency, benefits, objectives, etc. of the project during the whole process of the project, including external environmental factor And internal factors, including subjective and objective factors Rational factor And the management of perceptual factors. The connotation of project risk management is reflected in the following three aspects:

one whole Process management 。 Project risk management is neither a simple listing and prior judgment of the uncertain factors affecting the project before the implementation of the project, nor a rigid and prescriptive project risk management countermeasure based on it; It is not in the process of the project when the actual project risk occurs Crisis management And countermeasures; It is not purely the remedy after the occurrence of project risks conceptual design And afterwards summarize experience It is the management of the whole process of project risk. Full process management of project risk, requirements project risk management Those who are able to assess the situation and take a long-term view can achieve early warning and pre control of project risks through effective risk identification; The project manager is required to be able to face the crisis calmly and calmly through effective risks management tool Or risk processing method , disperse, apportion or divide the risks generated during the project operation; The project risk manager is required to take effective response measures after the project risk occurs, and be able to summarize experience and lessons; Improve project risk management.

two All staff management 。 The overall management of project risk is not only the management of all participants or personnel involved in the project operation, but also requires that all personnel can participate in the management of project risk. Project risk management is absolutely not the business of project risk management functional departments. Project management risk not only includes the risk of Uncertainty The management of factors also includes the management of uncertain factors generated in the process of planning, organization and coordination of the project itself. For the latter, the artificial subjective influence is relatively large. project risk management It is not only the management of all participants (personnel) of the project, but also the management of project risks by all staff.

three All factor integrated management 。 From the realistic goal pursued by project risk management or the fundamental problem to be solved by project risk management, it mainly involves three aspects of project duration, cost and quality. It can be seen that the process of project risk management is to pursue the shortest project duration, the lowest cost and the best quality under possible conditions Multiobjective decision Process, and project risk management cannot be satisfied with the pursuit of a single goal. This is because the duration, cost and quality of the project are three Direct connection And the relevant elements of interaction. The advance or delay of the project duration will directly affect the level of the cost, the quality of the project and the project engineering cost It is directly related. Similarly, the fluctuation of project duration and quality is affected by cost factors. It is not difficult to see that, project risk management It is the whole element of construction period, cost and quality Integrated management 。

In general, successful project risk management is both an art and a science. Its importance is mainly reflected in the following two aspects: on the one hand, project risk management helps to determine Project scope And the best project. Project risk management can carry out risk characteristics of selectable project sets Comprehensive evaluation , such as for project risk characteristics cluster analysis , making the project organizer Can be used in different critical value Select project groups within the scope; For projects risk premium Of Effectiveness Evaluation enables project organizers to consciously select projects Input and output High efficiency projects, etc. Project risk management focuses on the periodicity Regularity , pre control and other aspects, the identification mechanism, dispersion mechanism, allocation mechanism Transfer mechanism And so on, so as to Project Selection Select the best project within the range. on the other hand, project risk management It helps to improve the efficiency and efficiency of the selected projects. Project risk management is a dynamic, repeated, timely correction Continuous improvement Therefore, when risks appear with the advancement of the project, project risk management can constantly track the trajectory of risk affecting the project operation, and correct the deviation through effective procedures or means. For example, risk signs or signals can be effectively identified through risk identification strategies to prevent problems before they occur; develop Risk diversification Mechanism, for multiple risk projects coordination control , make full use of inter project synergistic effect ; application Risk allocation Strategy, among the project partners, through resource sharing , factor complementation and other ways to effectively share risks; Use the risk transfer mechanism to exit the project operation by means of transfer, sale, etc. when necessary Transfer risk 。 In addition, the risks and benefits of the project are positively correlated to a certain extent, but the project risks also correspond to the possible losses or increased costs of the project. project risk management While improving the selected project, it also reduces the cost loss or uncertainty, which is equal to improving the efficiency and efficiency of project operation.

Project risk identification

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Project risk identification It refers to finding out the main factors that affect the smooth realization of project objectives risk factor And identify the basic characteristics of these risks and the aspects that may affect the project.

project Risk identification It runs through the whole process of project implementation project risk management Work. It's not once a sexual behavior , and should run through the whole project regularly. Risk identification includes identification of internal and external risks. Internal risk refers to the risk that the project working group can control and influence, such as personnel appointment, dismissal and Cost estimates Etc. External risks refer to those beyond the control of the project team and effect Other risks, such as market diversion or Government action Etc. Strictly speaking, risk only refers to the possibility of suffering trauma and loss, but for projects, risk identification also involves opportunity selection (positive cost) and adverse factor threat (negative result). Any potential Problem identification Of information source Both can be used for risk identification. There are subjective and objective information sources. Objective information sources include experiences recorded in past projects and documents representing the current project progress, such as engineering documents, plan analysis requirement analysis , Technology performance evaluation Etc; Subjective information sources are based on experienced experts Empirical judgement 。

Identify potential risks and their characteristics in the project

This is the first goal of project risk identification. The nature and consequences of these projects can be further analyzed only after determining what risks may be encountered first. Therefore, in the project risk identification work, the first step is to Comprehensive analysis Various projects influence factor , find out various possible risks, and sort out and summarize them into a list of project risks.

Identify the main sources of risk

Only by identifying the main influencing factors of each project risk can we grasp the law of project risk development and change measure The possibility and consequence of the project risk, so that it is possible to deal with and control the project risk.

Predict the possible consequences of risks

The fundamental purpose of project risk identification is to reduce and cancel the possible adverse consequences of project risks. After identifying the project risks and the main sources of project risks, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze the possible consequences of project risks and the severity of their consequences. Of course, the identification and analysis at this stage are mainly qualitative analysis 。

Risk identification method

The scope, type and severity of risks are often easily exaggerated or narrowed subjectively, which makes the project risk assessment Analysis and disposal of errors, resulting in unnecessary losses. There are many methods for project risk identification, and any method that helps to find risk information can be used as a tool for risk identification. Here are some common methods:

Methods starting from subjective information sources

（1） Brainstorming （ Brainstorming ）, also known as collective thinking, is based on experts creative thinking It is an intuitive prediction and identification method to obtain future information. This method was initiated by American Osborne in 1939 and has been widely used since the 1950s. Brainstorming is usually carried out in a group of experts. With "macro Intelligent structure ”On the basis of, through expert meetings, give play to the creative thinking of experts to obtain future information. This requires the person presiding over the expert meeting to make a statement at the beginning of the meeting Intermediate energy Stimulate the "inspiration" of experts and urge them to feel an urgent need to answer the questions raised at the meeting Information exchange And mutual inspiration, so as to induce experts to have "thinking resonance", so as to complement each other and produce "combination effect", obtain more future information, and make the prediction and identification results more accurate. At the end of 1970s, China began to introduce brainstorming method, which was widely valued and adopted.

（2） Delphi method （ Delphi method ）Also called Expert survey method , it was in the early 1950s U.S.A Rand Corporation Rand Corporation front Soviet Union Nuclear attack The risk is raised from time to time, and it is rapidly prevailing in the world. It is a method to identify risks by relying on the intuitive ability of experts. Now this method has been widely used in economy, society Engineering technology And other fields. The process of project risk identification using the Delphi method is that the project risk team selects experts in relevant fields of the project, and establishes a direct relationship with these experts Correspondence Contact, collect experts' opinions by letter, and then make a comprehensive arrangement, and then anonymously feed back to all experts to ask for opinions again. In this way, after four to five rounds of repetition, the experts' opinions gradually tend to be consistent as the basis for final identification. This law was introduced into China in the 1970s and has been approved many project management It has been applied in the activity and has achieved satisfactory results.

（3） Scenario analysis method （ Scenarios analysis ）It is owned by American Slill Company Scientific researchers Pierre Wark proposed in 1972. It is based on Development trend Through systematic analysis of relevant issues inside and outside the system, design a variety of possible future prospects, and then use film script To describe the development trend of the system from beginning to end. When a project lasts for a long time, various technologies, economies and social factors Impact of, available scenarios analytical method To predict and identify its key risk factors and their impact. The scenario analysis method is particularly useful for the following situations: reminding decision makers of the possible risks or crisis consequences of certain measures or policies; Suggest the risk scope to be monitored; Study the influence of some key factors on the future process; Remind people of the risks that the development of a certain technology will bring to people. Scenario analysis method is applicable to projects with many variable factors Risk prediction And identified System technology It assumes that the key influencing factors are Possible On the basis of the above, multiple scenarios are constructed, and various possible future results are proposed, so that appropriate measures can be taken to prevent problems before they occur. The scenario analysis method has been widely used abroad since the mid-1970s, and Target expansion Method, gap filling method, future analysis method and other specific application methods. Some large transnational corporations Scenario analysis method has been successively used for risk prediction and identification of some large projects. Due to its complex operation process, the specific application of this method in China is still rare.

Methods starting from objective information sources

（1） Checklist method 。 The checklist is generally based on Project environment , product or technical information , team members' skills or defects and other risk factors Risk event And the source. The checklist can include: reasons for the success or failure of previous projects; Project scope , cost, quality, progress, procurement and contract, human resources and communicate Etc; Project product or Service Instruction ； Skills of project management members; Available resources of the project, etc. project manager According to the checklist, it is relatively easy to associate the potential risks of this project. This method may reveal less absolute risk than other methods, but it can identify some risks that cannot be found by other methods.

（2） Flow chart method 。 flow chart The method should first establish a Project The general flow chart and sub flow chart of the project shall show all activities of the project implementation. Flowchart available network diagram It is also profitable WBS To represent. It can uniformly describe the work steps of the project; Show the key links of the project; Be able to compare the actual process with the imagined situation; It is convenient to check the work progress. This is a very useful Structured approach It can help to analyze and understand the specific links of project risks and the risks between each link. The project risk identification results completed by this method can be used to Risk Management Provide basis.

（3） Financial statement method 。 Through analysis Balance Sheet , business statements, and financial records, the project risk manager can identify all current property, liability, and personal loss risks of the enterprise or project. These reports and Financial forecast 、 Budget When linked, risk managers can identify future risks. This is because the project or enterprise operating activities Either the currency or the project itself are involved risk management The most important consideration object.

Project risk assessment

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Project risk assessment refers to Full life cycle To effectively identify and analyze project risks control risk Provide basis. risk evaluation It is usually divided into two steps: first, Risk identification ； Second, risk analysis 。 Risk identification refers to the process of checking the situation and determining potential risk areas, and investigating project implementation Problems and owner And users' concerns should be addressed in all aspects of the project assessment In order to find out the potential risk scope, the methods of identifying risks mainly include system engineering documents and life cycle cost analysis 、 Progress analysis , baseline cost estimation, etc., project Work breakdown structure ( WBS ）As a framework for risk identification, each decomposition from the top to the bottom is analyzed in detail. Risk analysis refers to the analysis required to determine the possibility of problems and the results caused by their occurrence. Its purpose is to find out the causes of risks, measure the results and risk size (level). Many existing methods are helpful to risk analysis, such as Network planning technology ( VERT and PERT Etc.) and life cycle cost ( LCC ）Models, etc.

For pre project evaluation and in-process evaluation, risk evaluation is included. In the pre project evaluation, risk evaluation refers to the evaluation of the project Environmental risk Prediction and evaluation of, including Political risks 、 economic risks 、 Natural risk 、 Technical risk Wait, it's a project feasibility study A component of. Here we mainly discuss the risk evaluation in the evaluation phase of the project, because in the project Implementation process The project manager needs to keep abreast of the risk situation faced by the current project, point out the abnormal risk signals of the project, and take measures in advance if necessary Corrective measures 。

Project risk treatment

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Current project Risk treatment The means mainly include Risk Management 、 Risk Retention 、 Risk transfer Three types. Among them, project risk control refers to taking all possible means to avoid project risks, eliminate project risks, or take emergency measures to avoid the risks that have occurred and the risks that may be caused risk Loss control stay Minimum Or within an acceptable range. Project risk control must be based on certain assumptions and costs, such as Risk avoidance It means that project decision-makers will lose the opportunity to obtain high returns or must pass the high cost Technical proposal The essence of dealing with risks still lies in paying a lot of risk expenses. In addition, project risk control means that in addition to skills, decision makers must Experiential knowledge , early accumulation, financial support, or effective project risk control will be difficult to achieve.

Project risk retention is also one of the treatment means of project risk control, whose premise is to assessment It is concluded that the probability of occurrence is small or large, but Risk loss Small, or the probability and risk losses are both large but within the expected range or acceptable range. In addition, when the risk is not available Effective control However, when it is necessary to carry out the project, the project decision-maker will also adopt the risk retention strategy. Most projects in China do not carry out risk assessment, or set up a small amount of project reserves (such as Contingency ）It is usually incorrect to think that all risks can be included.

At present, risk control and risk retention are the main ways to deal with projects in China. The economic root of the problems and drawbacks is that the state-owned enterprises are large medium-sized enterprise Or all undertaken by government departments project investment The government usually pays for the project risk, and the enterprise or project leader is not responsible for the project risk loss. The inefficiency of project risk management has led to“ Triple super ”Phenomenon, namely budget estimate exceeding estimate, budget exceeding estimate, final account Overbudget 。 With the establishment of China Socialist market economy ， Investor (state-owned enterprise or government) Economic responsibility It is becoming clearer and more specific, and decision-makers of project investment have begun to pay more attention to it Investment estimation Of accuracy The effectiveness of project risk treatment has been greatly improved.

Compared with project risk control and project risk retention, project risk transfer is a more effective means to deal with project risk. For example, transfer the project to a professional insurance company engaged in risk consolidation or other Venture capital institutions , which is a kind of compliance market economy Regular and fair means of transfer. According to the original Ministry of Construction and Administration for Industry and Commerce Jointly formulated and issued (construction Model contract text ）Provisions, Project Owner And project contractor Insurance can be negotiated jointly. Currently, due to participation in the actual insurance The number of items is small, and the three major insurance companies in China charge premium It is also expensive, and insurance contract The terms are obviously unfavorable to the project party. As the number of insured items increases year by year competitiveness It is more and more obvious that the premium and service will be transferred to the direction beneficial to the project party Transfer strategy It will become more and more perfect and mature.

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