For somefinancial transactions Subject matterOver buying is called overbought, while over selling is called oversold.Learning to recognizeOverbought and oversold indexBefore you start, you should have a general understanding of it.The so-called overbought and oversold indicators are caused by the inertia of the price trend.
The main research and judgment method of OBOS is toindexLine andOBOSJudge again after connecting lines.AndMean lineIf the two lines rise at the same time, it is a good phenomenon;If the second line goes down at the same time, it is a bad market;Exponential lineThe rise and decline of OBOS indicate that manySmall-cap It has gone downhill.The reason is simple: the index is composed of many stocks, and the rise of the index indicates that it has a large weightLarge cap stocksIt is still on the rise, but OBOS is not a weighted algorithm, it only counts.The decline of OBOS indicates that many stocks in the whole market are falling, but these falling stocks are small cap stocks with small weight in the index;Nevertheless, the decline of small cap stocks indicates thatequity marketWill become weak, so it is aSell signal。Similarly, if the index is declining, OBOS is rising, indicating that small and medium-sized stocks have improved, so the stock market is about to reverse.
adoptKDJandRSI indexTo analyze, we know its normalFluctuation rangeBetween 20 and 80, then we can think that if the fluctuation range exceeds 80, we areOverbought, below 20 is calledOversold。Passivation occurs when the indicator stops at 3 overbought and oversold areasTrading dayabove.
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Overbought and oversold（OBOS）It is an analysis tool to measure the momentum of the general trend. The calculation is simple and the analysis method is simple, but it is very practical.We calculate the total number of stocks rising in N days, and then calculate the total number of stocks falling in these days. After subtracting, we get the OBOS value. For example, on the first day, 20 stocks rose and 10 stocks fell, but on the second day, 29 stocks rose and 1 stock fell. Then the value of OBOS2 is 20+29 - (10+1)=38.Of course, in actual analysis, the value of this N day should not be too high[1]Small, generally about 10 days is appropriate.
equity marketOn the other hand, it often happens that the spread of some news makes investorsMarketorIndividual sharesMake a strong response, so as to cause the stock market or individual stocks to rise or fall excessively, so there is an overbought and oversold phenomenon.When the investor's mood calms down, the impact of overbought and oversold will gradually be properly adjusted.Therefore, after overboughtprice of stockThere is a fall back;After oversold, there will be considerablerebound。If investors understand this overbought and oversold phenomenon and grasp its movement law in time, they can increase profit opportunities in the stock market.
The key here is how to timely measure the overbought and oversold phenomenon in the stock market. There are many technical analysis methods to measure the overbought and oversold phenomenon, mainly includingRelative strength index(RSI)、Wobble index(OSC)、Random index(KDJ) andpercentageEtc.
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The analysis of history records shows thatDivergence The transaction can achieve a success rate of 80%.We can judge whether the stock price will reverse in a short time from two aspects[2]。
1. Whether the back slip exists.It means that when the stock price is at a new high or low, the index is not at a new high or low, which is called divergence.It even happens thatprice of stockIt is opposite to the new high and new low of the index, which is called“Hook head”, which indicates that it is time for us to reverse the operation.
2. Because there are many analysts referring to common indicatorsdistortionThe situation occurs.Therefore, we suggest that you can refer to othersTechnical indicators, or adjust the time parameters of indicators a little longer, so that their changes are not too sensitive, so that the referential value is improved a lot.
