The moving average is determined by the famous American investment expertsJoseph E.Granville(Grampy, also translated as Granville) was put forward in the middle of the 20th century.Theory of mean squareIt is one of the most widely used technical indicators today. It helps traders to confirm the existing trend, judge the trend that will appear, and find the trend that is about to reverse due to excessive growth.
Moving Average[1]Common lines have indicators of 5 days, 10 days, 30 days, 60 days, 120 days and 240 days.Among them, the short-term moving averages of 5 and 10 days areShort line operationReference index of, called dayMoving average index；30 days and 60 days are medium-term moving average indicators, calledSeasonal averageIndicators;120 days and 240 days are long-term average indicators, which are called annual average indicators.The examination of moving average is generally conducted from several aspects.
When selecting stocks, investors can use the moving average as a reference indicator. The moving average can reflect the trend of the price. The so-called moving average is to average the stock price of a certain period of time, and then use thisaverage valueMake an average image.Shareholders' friends canDaily K Line DiagramThe peace moving average is analyzed in the same chart, which is very intuitive and clear.
Moving Average[2]The most common method is to compare the relationship between the moving average of securities prices and the prices of securities themselves.When the security price rises above its moving averageBuying Signals。When the price of a security falls below its moving average, a sell signal is generated.
MT4 moving average indicator
The reason for this signal is that people believe that the moving average, "line", is a powerful standard to support or block prices.Prices should rebound from the moving average.If it breaks through without rebounding, it should continue to develop in this direction until it finds something new to keeplevel。
1) Track trends.Pay attention to the price trend, follow this trend, and do not give up easily.
2) Stability.Because the change of MA is not a change of one day, but a change of several days. The big change of one day will be apportioned by several days, and the change will become small and not obvious.
When we put different sizes ofMoving averageMark it on the chart and connect it to get a curve of ups and downs, which is the famous moving average.
There are many kinds of moving averages, but in general, they can be divided into three types: short-term, medium-term and long-term.The short-term moving average is mainly on the 5th and 10th.On the 5th day, divide the sum of the 5 days by 5 to get aaverage, mark it on the chart, and then calculate the following by analogy, and then connect the averages day by day to get the 5-day average.Since the SSE usually has 5Trading day, so 5Daily lineAlso calledPerimeter。[3]
Because 5Daily averageThe line undulates greatly,Choppy marketAt that time, the image of the line was very irregular, and there was no track to find, so the 10 day average line was born. The 10 day average line was taken as a sample, which was simple and easy to calculate, and was the most widely used moving average line for the investment public.It can accurately reflect the stock price in the short termaverage costThe change situation and trend of can be used as the basis for short-term access.
The second category isMedium term moving average。FirstMonthly line, the sampling is on the 24th, 25th or 26th day, and this line enables users to understand the monthly average of stock pricesVariable cost, forMedium term investmentfor,EffectivenessHigh, especially before the stock market is very clear, it can show the future direction of the stock price in advance.The second is the 30 day moving average, which is still based on the month. However, since the 30 day moving average is taken as the sample, the calculation is simpler than the former. FinallySeasonal lineThe sampling time was 72, 73 or 75 days.Because of itsFluctuation rangeThe short-term moving average is smooth and traceable, and the long-term moving average is highly sensitive, so it has obvious advantages.
The third is the long-term moving average, which is firstHalf year line, sampling 146 or 150 days, because listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange publish theirfinancial statementsDirectors, supervisors and some well-informed people of the company can often obtainFirst hand information, speculation, investors can take advantage of the sedan chair, but because the Shanghai market is highly speculative, investors pay attention to short-term differential profits, so the effect is also discounted.The 200 day moving average was introduced by Granville after he concentrated on studying and testing the moving average system, but it is not widely used in China.Annual lineThe sampling date is about 255 days, which is the reference for super large households and speculators to operate stocks.[4]
All types of averages are just like the above. The sampling is too small, the line is irregular, the sampling is too large, the line is too smooth, and there is no obvious turning point. Investors should pay attention to this.
According to the length of time, the moving average can be divided into short-term, medium-term and long-term. Generally, the short-term moving average is 5 days and 10 days;In the medium term, there are 30 days and 65 days;Long term: 200 days and 280 days.It can be used alone or simultaneously.By comprehensively observing the long, medium and short term moving averages, we can judge the multiple tendencies of the research market.If the three moving averages rise side by side, the market willMultiple Arrangement ；If the three moving averages fall side by side, the market willshort order 。[5]
In the final analysis, the moving average is a trend tracking tool, which is convenient to identify the opportunity that the trend has ended or reversed, and the leading trend is forming or continuing.It will not be ahead of the market, but faithfully follow the market, so it has the characteristics of lagging behind, but it can not fake.[6]
feature analysis
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Some characteristics of the moving average are very important for market analysis. We will give details on 12 casesAnalysis and judgment：
Stable rise of bulls
Be a bullMarket entryDuring the period of stable rise, 10MA, 20MA, and 60MA are pushed upward to the right, and three lines of multi heads are arranged (from top to bottom, they are 10MA, 20MA, and 60MA respectively), slightly parallel.
Technical return
When 10MA turns downward from the rising trend to the right, while 20MA still pushes upward, it reveals that this band is a technical retracement in the bull market, and the rise is not over.
More by idling
The stock market is composed ofshort positionWhen the market enters the bull market, 10MA first passes through from top to bottomK-line diagram(Note that it is the K line chart). It is at the bottom of the k line chart (that is, the stock price stands above 10MA). After a few days, 20MA and 60MA successively pass through the K line chart from top to bottom (that is, the stock price stands above 20MA and 60MA successively).
Stock price consolidation
During the stock price consolidation, 10MA and 20MA are interlaced. If the time is prolonged, 60MA will also bond together.
Disk height and disk low
When the stock price is in the market, if 10MA breaks through and rises first to the upper right, the future market will certainly rise;If the 10MA drops to the lower right, the future market will inevitably become lower and lower.
The short end
In the short market, if 60MA can follow 10MA to 20MA and run through the K line chart from top to bottom (that is, the stock price stands above 60MA), there will be a strong rebound in the future market, and even the short market is nearing the end.
From multiple to empty
If 20MA turns down with 10MA to the right and 60MA starts to turn down to the right, it means that the long market will end and the short market will come.
Below 10MA
When the market moves from a long market to a short market, 10MA first crosses the K line from bottom to top, reaching the top of the K line (the stock price falls below 10MA), and then 30MA and 60MA successively cross the K line from bottom to top in a few days, reaching the top of the K line.
Sequential arrangement
The short market moving averages are all above the K line chart, and the order from top to bottom is 60MA, 20MA, and 10MA.
Bounce Start
In the short market, if 10MA moves through the K line chart from top to bottom first (the K line chart is at the top, and 10MA is at the bottom), the stock price is above 10MA, which is a precursor of the stock price rebound in the short market.
Increased rebound trend
In the short market, if 20MA also follows 10MA and crosses the K-line from top to bottom, and 10MA is above 20MA (that is, the stock price is above 20MA, and 10MA and 20MA are arranged in a multi position), the rebound trend will become stronger.
Deep retracement
If 20MA goes down with 10MA turning to the lower right and 60MA still goes up to the upper right, it reveals that this band is a deep retracement in the bull market.Should behold out Or venting strategy.
Property of mean square
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Track trends
Track trends.Pay attention to the price trend, follow this trend, and do not give up easily.If we can find the rise or fall of the stock price from the chartTrendlineThen, the curve of MA will keep consistent with the trend line direction, which can eliminate the fluctuation of intermediate stock price in this process.raw dataOur stock price chart does not have this feature of keeping track of trends.
Hysteresis
Moving Average
Hysteresis.When the original trend of the stock price reverses, due to the trend tracking characteristics of MA, MA's action is often too slow, and the turning speed lags behind the general trend.This is a great weakness of MA.By the time MA sent a reversal signal, the depth of the stock price turn had been very large.
stability
Stability.Usually, the longer the moving average is, the more stable it will be. That is, the moving average is not easy to go up and down. The moving average will not extend up until the stock price rise is really clear. Moreover, the moving average is always upward when the stock price starts to fall back. When the stock price falls significantly, the moving average will go down,This is the biggest feature of the moving average.The shorter the moving average,StabilityThe worse, the moreLong term moving averageThe stronger the stability is, but it also makes the moving averageDelayed responseProperties of.
Helping rise and fall
Moving Average
Helping rise and fall.WhenShare price breakthroughWhen MA is launched, whether it is an upward breakthrough or a downward breakthrough, the stock price has the desire to continue to go one step further towards the breakthrough, which is MA's ability to help rise and fall.
The share price breaks through from the below average direction, and the average also starts to move to the upper right, which can be seen as the support line for bulls. The share priceFall backNear the average line, there will be support force naturally, and the short-term average line will riseMovement speedFast, mediumLong term averageThe speed of moving up the line is slow, but it means that within a certain periodaverage costIncrease. If the seller's strength is slightly stronger than the buyer's, and the stock price falls back near the average line, it is the time to buy. This is the rising effect of the average line. Until the stock price rises slowly or falls back, the average line begins to slow down, and the stock price returns to near the average line. The average line will lose its rising effect, and there will be a tendency to return to below the average line. It is better not to buy.
On the contrary, when the stock price breaks down from the average, the average begins to move down to the right, becoming a short sellerResistance lineWhen the stock price returns to the vicinity of the average line, resistance will naturally arise. Therefore, when the average line goes down, when the stock price returns to the vicinity of the average line, it is the time to sell, and the average line will help to decline at this time.Until the stock price falls slowly or recovers, the average begins to move slowly. If the stock price is close to the average again, the average will lose its significance of helping the decline. There will be a tendency to return to above the average, and there is no need to rush to sell.
Support lineandPressure lineProperties of.Because of the above four characteristics of MA.Make it play the role of support line and pressure line in the stock price trend.
2. The intersection formed when the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average is calledDeath crossover。It indicates that the stock price will fall.The yellow 5-day moving average crosses the purple 10 day moving average;The cross formed by the green 30 day moving average below the 10 day moving average is death cross.
However, not all gold crossings and death crossings are the purchase and shipment points.The reason is that the dealer sometimesSpoof。Especially on the way up or down, the dealer mayConcussion dishwashingOr shock shipment.At this time, the golden cross and death cross indicatePoint of saleIt is very unreliable. In this case, investors should be careful.
Moving Average
3. When the rising market enters a stable period, the moving averages of the 5th, 10th and 30th days are from top to bottomSequential arrangement, moving up and right, calledMultiple Arrangement 。It indicates that the stock price will rise sharply.
4. In a falling market, the moving averages of the 5th, 10th and 30th days are arranged in order from bottom to top and moving to the right and bottom, which is calledshort order , indicating that the stock price will fall sharply.
5. In the rising market, the stock price is above the moving average, and the average line of long positions can be regarded as the defense line of many parties;WhenStock price retracementNear the moving average line, each moving average line in turn produces a supporting force, and the entry of buying stocks drives the stock price to rise again, which is the role of the moving average line in helping to increase.
6. In a falling market, if the stock price is below the moving average, the moving average in short position can be regarded asEmpty partyThe line of defense, whenStock price reboundWhen you get near the moving average, you will encounter resistance,SellingThis is the role of the moving average in helping the stock price decline.
7. The turning point of the moving average is the highest point when the moving average turns from rising to falling, and the lowest point when the moving average turns from falling to rising.It indicates that the stock price trend will reverse.
8. Form When the moving average appears at the bottomDouble bottom shapeorTriple bottomForm is the best time to buy.The best time to sell is when the moving average has a double top or triple top at the top.
9. After the turning point moving average runs for a period of timepeakandtroughThis is the turning point.The turning point of the moving average is very important. It usually indicates a change of trend.When a moving average runs upward, it can no longerset a new recordAnd shows the peak shape, which is the sign that the stock price is unable to reach a new high and may change the trend downward. This turning point is often called selling point.In the process of decline, the moving average runs downward, and when the curve flattens and turns around, the trough appears, which is what people call the buying point.Investors should closely follow the moving average and find the turning point (peak and trough) in time to find the buying and selling point.
Moving Average
10. The moving average is simple, practical, easy to master, and very popular with investors.But at the same time, it also has disadvantages.Mainly instock market indexNarrow range consolidation of stock price or by the dealerConcussion dishwashingWhen,Short term moving averageThere will be too many buying and selling signals, which are difficult to identify and easily misleading.In addition, investors'Position costIt is also important to understand the moving average.
11. When the 10 day moving average moves from up to down and down, the 30 day moving average still moves to the right and up, indicating that this decline isBull marketThe technical retracement of was not over.
12. If the 30 day moving average also follows the 10 day moving average and turns downward to the right, while the 60 day moving average still moves upward to the right, it means that this band has a deep downshift, and it is advisable to take the exit wait-and-see approach.
Moving Average
13. If the 60 day moving average also follows the 10 day and 30 day moving average to turn down to the right, it means that the bull market is over,Short marketcoming.
14. During consolidation, the moving averages of the 5th, 10th and 30th days will be entangled, such asBoardAs time goes on, the 60 day moving average will also bond with it.
15. When the trend is in the round, if the moving average of the 5th and 10th day breaks through and rises to the right, thenAftermarketInevitable high;If the moving average of the 5th and 10th day goes down to the right, the future market will inevitably fall.
16. In the short market, if the stock price breaks through the 5-day and 10-day moving average and stands firm, it is a sign that the stock price rebounds in the short market.
17. In the short market, if the stock price breaks through the 5-day and 10-day moving average and thenOn the stationThe 30 day moving average, and the 10 day and 30 day moving average form a golden intersection, then the rebound will become stronger, and there is some room for improvement in the future market.
18. In the short market, if the stock price has successively broken through the 5-day, 10-day and 30-day moving average, and then broke through the 60 day moving average, there will be a strong rebound in the middle market, even the short market will end and the long market will begin.
Granville's law
1. The moving average gradually flattens from the downward direction and rises slightly upward, while the stock price breaks through from the downward direction above the moving average, which is a buying signal.
2. When the stock price runs above the moving average, the time to buy is when the stock price does not fall below the moving average and then rises again.
Moving Average
3. The stock price runs above the moving average, and falls below the moving average when the stock returns, butShort term moving averageContinue to presentUpward trend, this is the time to buy.
4. The stock price runs below the moving average and suddenly plummets, which is too far away from the moving average and is very likely to be close to the moving average (when things get extreme, they fall and rebound). This is the time to buy.
5. The stock price runs above the moving average, rising sharply for several consecutive days, and getting farther and farther away from the moving average, indicating that the internal stock buyers are profitable and will generate at any timeProfit takingOfSelling pressure, shares shall be temporarily sold.
sixmoving average The line gradually flattens from the rise, and when the stock price falls below the moving average from the moving average, it indicates that the selling pressure is getting heavier, and the stocks held should be sold.
7. The stock price runs below the moving average, and does not break the moving average when rebounding, and the moving averageDowntrendSlow down and appear again after reaching the levelDownward trend, this is the selling time.
eightStock price reboundAfter wandering above the moving average, while the moving average continues to fall, it is advisable to sell the stocks held.
classification method
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By algorithm
10 day line
Take the 10th day line as an example. Add all the closing prices on the 10th day and divide by 10 to get the first average value set as A, where A is the value of the first day in the 10th day line;The calculation method of the second day is: (A times 10+the closing price of the second day - the closing price of the first day) ÷ 10=the value of the second day.The calculation method of the third day is A times 10+the closing price of the third day - the closing price of the next day) ÷ 10=the value of the third day
Simple Moving Average
The so-called moving average isArithmetic meanFor example, if there are ten numbers from 1 to 10, the average number is 5.5;Moving means the change of these ten numbers.If the first group is 1 to 10,Group IIIf it changes from 2 to 11 and the third group from 3 to 12, then the average of the three groups is different.These sets of different averages are collectively called moving averages.
Example: The closing prices of a share for ten consecutive trading days are: (Unit: yuan)
When the starting base period of the exponential smooth moving average is different, the calculation results of the later starting base period will be different from those of the earlier starting base period.For example, the figure of November 5 calculated by the person who calculates the smooth moving average of the index on October 30 is generally different from the figure of November 5 calculated by the person who calculates the smooth moving average of the index on October 9 and 10.After a long period of smooth operation, this difference will tend to be consistent, and there will be no big difference.Therefore, investors may use technical indicators such asRSIIf there is any discrepancy between the calculation and others' figures, it is not an error in the calculation.
According to the above phenomenon, investors do not necessarily need to use the arithmetic moving average to calculate the first value of EMA. In fact, the 5-day EMA or the 10-day EMA can be calculated the next day.
Taking the 5-day index smooth moving average as an example, the calculation method is to first calculate the first moving average with the arithmetic moving average, and the second moving average is:
(Closing price of the 6th day × 1/5)+(moving average of the previous day × 4/5)
Formula EMA=C6 * 1/5+EMA5 * 4/5
By time
Short term moving average:
Moving Average
Generally, the calculation period is five days and ten days, representing one weekAverage price, which can be used as the basis for short-term access.
Medium term moving average:
Most of them are based on 30 days, which is called monthly moving average, representing the average price or cost of a month. There are also 26 days of monthly moving average after deducting four Sundays.Another 72 day moving average, commonly known asSeasonal line。Generally speaking, the moving average of the past month is highly effective, especially before the stock market is very clear, it shows the future direction of the stock price in advance.
Long term moving average:
Moving Average
stayEurope and AmericaTechnical analysis of stock marketThe long-term moving average adopted is mostly 200 days.Because after the research and test of the moving average system by the American investment expert Granville, it is believed that the 200 day moving average is the bestRepresentativenessIn China, it is an important indicator for super large investors and retail investors to refer to when operating stocks. Investors willeconomic climate Trends, prospects of various industries,Issue of sharesAfter careful study of the company's production and marketing status and growth rateinvestment environment(e.gbank rateChange, real estate appreciation ratio, and rate of return on investment in factory establishment). If the profit on investment in stocks is high, market operation will be carried out.Due to the large number of imports and exports and the long period of speculation, we must understandaverage costChanges, thereforeSample sizeIt best represents the long-term moving average.
Half year line
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The 120 day moving average is also called the "half year line". Since it is the "half year line", how should the market change after half a year?Obviously, there are many problems to be considered in the application of the 120 day moving average.
The use of the 120 day moving average in actual combat can pay attention to two aspects:
First, the fluctuation range in the actual trend will not be too large, and it will suppress the market trend in a bear market;It will support the market in a bull market.
Second, the change of direction should generally be combined with wave analysis, so its effectiveness is reliable.
Selling opportunity
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1. In the rising market, the stock price falls below the 10 day moving average from top to bottom, which means that the short term has turned short. You should sell the stock, leave the market and wait for opportunities again.
2. After falling below the 10 day moving average, the stock price fell below the 30 day and 60 day moving average in turn. These two signals remind investors that the stock price will be deeper soonDecline, is an excellent time to sell.The 30 day moving average is the lifeline of the stock market, and the 60 day moving average is a medium-term indicator. If the stock price falls below this second line, it indicates the beginning of the medium-term decline. If investors still have profits in their stocks, they should resolutely throw them away;If it is locked, it should also be taken off decisively.
3. In the bull market, the stock price falls below the 10 day moving average, while the 30 day moving average is still belowK-line diagramA sharp rise from the bottom to the top right indicates that it is a technical retracement in the bull market, and the decline is not too deep. You should first hit the high, or sell the stock when the stock price falls below the 10 day moving average, and then buy it after waiting for an opportunity.
4. If the stock price falls below the 10 day moving average and then falls below the 30 day moving average, and the 30 day moving average moves downward to the right, it means that the decline will be deeper, so you should sell the stock and leave the market.
5. If the stock price falls below the 10 day and 30 day moving averages, and then falls below the 60 day moving averages, and the 60 day moving averages also move downward to the right, you should quickly sell all stocks to find a better opportunity.
6. If the stock price falls below the 10 day, 30 day and 60 day moving average in turn, and the three lines are slightly parallel short positions, it means that the short market is coming and the short parties have accounted forabsolute advantageIn the short term, the decline will deepen day by day. All stocks should be sold to reduce losses and preserve strength so as to make up at a lower price.
7. In a long session, if the 10 day moving average breaks down to the right, it meansshort positionThe strength will increase, and the market will continue to decline. It is the time to sell.This is very applicable to the Shanghai stock market, which is characterized by "long-term decline".
8. The stock price runs near the 10 day moving average. If the distance between the stock price and the 10 day moving average suddenly increases, it means that the bull force has exhausted, the short force has strengthened, and there will be a sharp downward trend in the future market. The stock should be sold immediately.
The daily moving average on September 10 is intertwined with the stock price, and it is not easy to rise or fall sharply. At this time, we should wait and see.When the 10 day moving average jumps away from the stock price and moves downward to the right, the decline in the future market will be deeper, which is the time to sell.
10. The time to sell is when the 60 day moving average turns from an upward trend to a gentle trend, or turns downward to the right.Once the turning point of the 60 day moving average occurs, it often indicates that there will be an intermediate rise or fall in the future market. This is why many investors and experts attach great importance to the 60 day moving average.
Operation essentials
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1. In stock market operation, first of all, pay attention to the arrangement of moving averages and distinguish what isMultiple arrangement of moving average。For example, if the short-term moving average is above, the medium-term moving average is in the middle, the long-term moving average is below, and several moving averages are slowly diverging upward at the same time, it is called the multiple head arrangement of the moving average.Moving average systemThe multi head arrangement indicates that many parties control the situation and canLook at the high lineAt this time, investors should focus on long.However, it should be noted that when the stock price rises, it deviates too far from the moving average. According to the Granville moving average rule, there will be a short-term decline. If you are sure, you should moderately short, and thenbargain hunting , which can avoid short-term risks and increase profit opportunities.Conversely, if the long-term moving average is above, the medium-term moving average is in the middle, the short-term moving average is below, and several moving averages diverge slowly downward at the same time, it is calledAverage short position arrangement。There are short positions in the moving average system, indicating that the short side controls the situation and the market is weakening. At this time, investors should mainly short.However, it should be noted that when the stock price falls, it deviates too far from the average. According to the Granville moving average rule, there will be short-term rebound opportunities. If you are sure, grab some chips at a low price and make a rebound, you can also increase capitalUtilization。It is not necessary to do it occasionally.
2. The short-term trend prediction should be based on the research and judgment of the 5-day and 10 day moving averages.stayStrong market, orStrong stockIn general, the stock price (index) will not fall below the 5-day average, nor below the 10 day average. If it falls below the 5-day average, especially the 10 day average, beware of the weakening of the market.stayWeak market, orDisadvantaged sharesIn China, the rebound of stock price (index) will not break the 5-day average, let alone the 10 day average. If it breaks the 5-day average, especially the 10 day average, it may become stronger.Investors need to note that the so-called breakdowns here are subject to a decline of more than 3% for more than 3 consecutive days.
3. The prediction of the medium-term trend should be based on the research and judgment of the 30 day and 60 day moving average.fromShanghai and Shenzhen stock marketsAccording to the operation over the past few years, the 30 day moving average has always been an important indicator of the strength of the market in the medium term.When the stock price (index) falls, the 30 day moving average is effectively broken, and the medium-term trend is weak;When the stock index rises, the 30 day moving average isEffective breakthroughThe medium-term trend is promising.In terms of the reliability of medium-term buying and selling signals,60 day moving averageBetter than the 30 day moving average (because the 60 day moving average is better than the 30 day moving averageSpoofLess), the 60 day moving average has an obvious effect on the short-term and medium-term stock price trend. When the 60 day moving average is stronger or the stock price (index) stands above the 60 day moving average, the upward trend is clear at a glance.It has been investigated that in the history of Shanghai stock market, every two 60 day moving average breakthroughs have triggered a round of intermediate market. On the contrary, the weak rebound almost never exceeded the 60 day moving average.Therefore, when deciding when to buy and sell, midline buyers should not forget the guiding role of the 30 day moving average and the 60 day moving average.
4. The medium and long-term trend forecast should be based on120 day moving averageThe research and judgment of.fromShanghai and Shenzhen stock marketsHistorically, the 120 day moving average, which belongs to the medium and long-term moving average, has a special significance in the changes of stock prices (indexes). The trend of stock prices (indexes) is obviously supported or blocked by the 120 day moving average.120 day moving average atChina Stock MarketChina should belong to the half year line, so in terms of studying the medium and long-term trends of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock marketsaccuracy。When the 120 day moving average is effectively brokenlong-term trend When looking down,Medium long lineThe buyer should clear the position and leave the site.When the 120 day moving average is effectively broken up, the medium and long-term trend is good, and medium and long-term buyers should buy more.
Moving Average
5. The long-term trend prediction shall be based on the 250 day moving average.The 250 day moving average is the moving average of a year.250 day moving averageFailure means that all investors participating in the stock market in a year are trapped (this is fromAverage holding costAs mentioned above, there are also a few winners, not all of them are losers);The 250 day moving average has been effectively broken up, which means the popularity has recovered, and the bulls have finally gained the upper hand on the annual average.Therefore, many people regard the 250 day moving average as a bull bearDividing line。However, from the actual situation, the long-term trend of the stock market is determined by fundamentals rather thanTechnical aspects。If the fundamentals become better and the 250 day moving average falls, it is likely that the main force will deliberately suppressEmpty trap；On the contrary, the fundamentals are weakening, and the 250 day moving average is likely to be the main forceIncrease shipmentOne madebull trap 。Therefore, when investors analyze the long-term trend of the stock market, the 250 day moving average can only be used as a referenceFundamental planeCorrect judgment can be made only after comprehensive analysis and judgment.
center lineBull stockST Xiaxin (600057) can capture it with the medium and long-term moving average setting.In the middle of January 2002, after the 30th line and the 60th line were glued together, the stock price just stood at 7.52 on the 120th lineYuan Shang。Share price breakthroughAfter Line 250 (around 8.5 yuan at this time), Line 120 also went up from flat. With the fluctuation of stock prices, Line 250 also turned up on March 13, 2002, and on May 13, 2002, Line 120 crossed Line 250.After dropping 9.4 yuan, the stock price went up all the way, rising to 17 yuan at the highest, from 7.64 yuan above the 120 lineMetacalculation, the stock price rose by 222%, and the 60 day moving average, 120 day moving average and 250 day moving average all gave a more timely signal of the central line strengthening.
6. Timely revise and design the moving average time parameters according to market needs and individual stock characteristics.For example, in view of the feature that some main players often use the 30 day moving average to cheat chips when they are long, investors can change the 30 day moving average to the 40 day, 45 day, 50 day moving average when operating according to the moving average.Another example is that for someEquityFor particularly active individual stocks, it is believed that the stock market can be divided into 5, 10, 20, or 5, 10, 30Short term moving averageWhen the portfolio is still difficult to grasp its trend, it can also design a more suitable short-term or medium-termLong term moving averageCombination.
7. The moving average has many advantages, but it also has obviousdeficiencies。If you can't respond to the sudden market situation immediately, there areHysteresis effect；There are often someSpoofwait.The only way to overcome these shortcomings is to combine the moving average analysis method with other technical analysis methods, such asK lineanalytical method、TrendlineThe organic combination of analytical methods must be highly valued by investors.
threeDaily mean, looking for super short-term intervention points.
5-day moving average, trading days of a week, short-term.
10 day moving average, short-term stop loss level.
1. The moving average can help investors judge the signals of selling and buying. WhenExchange rateEffective breakWhen moving the averageSell signal；When the exchange rate effectively breaks through the moving average, it is a buy signal.
2. The moving average can simply and quickly show the general trend of exchange rate fluctuations.
inferiority
1. It is not easy for investors to accurately sell or buy simply by relying on the buying and selling signals of the moving average. Generally, the moving average needs toTechnical indicatorsUsed together.
2. WhenMarket situationIn the situation of consolidation, the selling and buying signals reflected by the moving average will appear frequently, and this is also the time when investors are most vulnerable to "being cheated".
3. The change of the moving average is relatively slow, and it is difficult for investors to easily grasp the trough of the exchange rate orIt's the peakAs far as the long-term moving average is concerned, this disadvantage is more obvious.[7]
Common forms
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1. Average line Jiaolong going to sea andhay cutter
Moving Average
2. The mean line is in the shape of clouds and moons, and dark clouds are densely distributed
By memorizing the 13 common forms of moving average, you can master the moving average.
application
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market
Moving average and stock market
RegardlessShort term moving average, medium-term moving average orLong term moving averageIts essential meaning is to reflectmarket priceOf different periodsaverage costSome market participants believe that the main force can arbitrarily disrupt various moving averages.The author believes that this understanding ignores the true meaning of the "average cost" of the moving average, because arbitrary disruption of the moving average cost within the plan will pay an excessive price.The moving average series after 60 days belongs to long-term moving average technology, namely60 day moving averageLater120 day moving averageand250 day moving averageIn fact, the war applications are all difficult and demanding technology types. The main reason is that this kind of moving average is a large cycle cost line, reflecting that the analysis of the market is no longer a local change, but requires the analysis of the changes in the overall trend of the market. The use of the 120 day moving average in actual combat can pay attention to two aspects. One is the 120 day moving average in the actual trendFluctuation rangeNot too big, it will suppress the market trend in a bear market;It will support the market in a bull market.Second, the change of direction of the 120 day moving average should generally be combined with the analysis of the general trendEffectivenessIs reliable.In ten daysmoving average Line as an example.Add 10Closing price, divide the sum of the accumulated data by 10 to get the first 10 daysAverage price, and then replace the 2nd to 11thDaily closing priceAnd divided by 10 is the second 10Daily averagePrice, the line of these average prices is the 10 day moving average. The duration of the moving average is related to its sensitivity. The shorter the period, the higher the sensitivity. The general stock price analysts usually observe short-term trends with the 6 and 10 day moving average, and observe short-term trends with the 10 and 20 day moving average;Observe the medium-term trend with the 30 day and 72 day moving averages;Research and judge by 13 week and 26 week moving averagelong-term trend 。Western investment institutions attach great importance to 200 daysLong term moving averageAs the basis for long-term investment, if the market price is below the long-term moving averageShort market；OtherwiseBull market。
Performance of moving average
The average line turns from downward to horizontal, and there are signs of changing the direction of movement to the upper right, while the stock price is mostly stable or rebounding upward.Continue up the averageRuntime, the share price will rise synchronously.Although it fell back, it still kept moving upward.Average trend fromUpward trendGradually transformed intoBoard, displayStock priceIt is already quite high, and the stock price is often accompanied by a fall back.The moving average is in a downward trend, and the stock price has mostly fallen. After falling, the stock price sometimes rebounds, or rises near the average line on which the decline depends, but soon falls again.
In particular, the medium and long term moving average is consistent with the stock price direction, showing“Multiple Arrangement ”Ofmarket environmentAt this time, the stock price rose like a boat sailing along the current.
In practice, most of the stocks that are sailing against the current are not going well.These stocks have experienced forced skyrocketing in the middle and long term under the condition of "downward pressure" of the average, but this does not mean that the analysis of the average is wrong, which belongs to another phenomenon of the average - "reversal of the average".Such a situation is a small probability event and does not haveuniversality。After all, such stocks can not even achieve a 1% probability. It is normal for more than 1000 stocks to appear every year, which is not a common phenomenon.
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When the moving average is used in practice, the advantages and disadvantages of the moving average should be clarified first. The advantages are that investors can follow the trend, while the disadvantages areConcussive cityIt is difficult to grasp the Tao.Give full play to the advantages of moving averageUnilateral cityGood grasp of the rising marketMarket opportunities, which can be well avoided in the downtrend of unilateral marketmarket risk 。This is like sailing along the current. Under the impact of the current, the engine provides enough power and the power of the current, so the boat can travel easily.In practice, the stock price is equivalent to a ship, and the moving average is equivalent to water. When the direction of the long-term moving average is the same as the direction of the stock price, operate in the corresponding direction and sail along the river. In this way, the power of the moving average (i.e. water) is fully used, which is of great significance in practice, and can help you better grasp market opportunities and avoid market risks.Therefore, "the moving average is consistent with the direction of the stock price, and" the multi leader arrangement ",volumeActiveValue stockIt is a good stock that deserves special attention."Sailing against the current" and "sailing along the current" are very important in the movement trend of stock prices. If you can deeply understand it, grasp it, and skillfully use it, then your wealth will roll forward.
Use the combination of moving averages to seize market opportunities.Use two moving averagesCombination analysisWhen the moving average with fewer days rises above the moving average with more days, it is a buying signal; otherwisefall drasticallyThe moving average with more days isSell signal。The advantage of the moving average is to identify the long-term trend. When the moving average is developing to its own advantage, it can continue to hold shares. It will not close the position until the moving average turns around. It can make huge profits. When the moving average is developing to its own disadvantage, it can be thrown out as soon as possible to minimize the risk.The short-term moving average can be taken as 3-5 days, the medium-term moving average can be taken as 12 days, the long-term moving average can be taken as one month, and the ultra long moving average can be more than two months.
