The technical aspect refers to theTechnical indicators, trend pattern and K-line combination.
Technical analysis includesThree premises: (1) Market behavior includes all information;(2) There are certain trends or laws in price changes;(3) History will repeat itself.
Considering that market behavior includes all informationPolicySuch factors can be ignored, but it is believed that price changes have laws and history will repeat, which makes it easier to judge the future trend with historical transaction data.
The oldest theory in this technical analysis holds that price can fully reflect all existing information and can be used by participants（dealer 、analyst, portfolio managers, market strategists andinvestor）The knowledge acquired has been converted in the pricing behavior.Currency fluctuations caused by unpredictable events, such as God's will, will be included in the overall trend.The purpose of technical analysis is to study the price behavior and make conclusions about the future trend.
Mainly aroundstock marketDeveloped from the average lineDow Theory It is believed that the price can be interpreted as a wave consisting of three amplitude types - dominant, auxiliary and secondary.The relevant time period varies from less than 3 weeks to more than 1 year.This theory can also explain the reverse mode.Reverse mode is the normal stage of trend slowing down. The reverse mode levels are 33%, 50% and 66%.
(2) Fibonacci anti galloping phenomenon
This is a widely used reversal phenomenon group based on the digital ratio generated by natural and man-made phenomena.This phenomenon is used to judge the extent of rebound or backtracking between prices and their potential trends.The most important levels of reverse galloping are 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%.
(3) Elliot wave
Eliot scholars classify price trends in a fixed wavy pattern.These models can represent future indicators and reversals.The wave moving in the same direction as the trend is called the push wave, while the wave moving in the opposite direction is called the correction wave.Elliot's wave theory divides the push wave and the modified wave into 5 and 3 main trends respectively.These eight trends constitute a complete wave period.The time span can range from 15 minutes to decades.
Elliot waveThe challenging part of the theory is that one wave period can be composed of eight sub wave periods, and these waves can be further divided into push waves and correction waves.Therefore, the key of Elliot wave is to be able to identify the environment where a particular wave is located.The Eliots also use Fibonacci anti galloping phenomenon to predict the peak and bottom of the future wave cycle.
Contents of technical analysis
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(1) Discover trends
The first thing you may hear about technical analysis is the following maxim: "Trends are your friends".Finding the dominant trend will help you to take a holistic view of the overall market orientation, and will give you more keen insight - especially when shorter term market fluctuations disrupt the overall market.Weekly and monthly chart analysis is best used to identify longer-term trends.Once you find the overall trend, you can choose the trend in the time span you want to trade.In this way, you canUpward trendBuy in the fall, and sell in the decline.
(2) Support and resistance
braceAnd resistance levels are points in the chart that experience continuous upward or downward pressure.The support level is usually the lowest point in all chart modes (hourly, weekly, or yearly), while the resistance level is the highest point (peak) in the chart.When these points show a recurring trend, they are identified as support and resistance.The best time to buy/sell is near the unbreakable support/resistance level.
Once these levels are broken, they tend to become reverse barriers.Therefore, in the rising market, the broken resistance level may become the support for the upward trend;However, in declining markets, once the support level is broken, it will turn into resistance.
(3) Lines and channels
TrendlineIt is a simple and practical tool to identify the direction of market trends.The upward straight line is formed by connecting at least two consecutive low points.Naturally, the second point must be higher than the first.The extension of the straight line helps to judge the path along which the market will move.An upward trend is a specific method for identifying support lines/levels.In contrast, a downward line is drawn by connecting two or more points.Transaction lineVariabilityTo some extent, it is related to the number of connection points.However, it is worth mentioning that the points need not be too close.
A channel is defined as an upward trend line parallel to the corresponding downward trend line.The two lines can represent corridors with prices up, down or horizontal.The common attributes of channels that support trendline connection points should be located between the two connection points of their reverse lines.
(4) Average
If you believe in the belief of "trend is your friend" in technical analysis, thenMoving AverageYou will benefit greatly.The moving average shows the average price at a specific time in a specific period.They are called "moves" because they are measured at the same time and reflect the latest averages.
One of the disadvantages of moving averages is that they lag behind the market, so they may not be a sign of trend change.To solve this problem, the use of a shorter period moving average of 5 or 10 days will better reflect price movements than a 40 or 200 day moving average.
Alternatively, moving averages can also be used by combining averages of two different time spans.Whether using 5 and 20 day moving averages or 40 and 200 day moving averages, buying signals are usually detected when the shorter term averages cross the longer term averages upwards.On the contrary,Sell signalIt will be prompted when the shorter term average crosses the longer period average downward.
There are three mathematically differentMoving Average: simple arithmetic moving average;LinetypeWeighted moving average；And the weighted average of the square coefficient.Among them, the last one is the preferred method, because it gives more weight to the latest data, andfinancial instrumentsConsider data throughout the cycle of.
The foreign exchange market operates continuously for 24 hours, rising and falling, and never stops.Speculation in foreign exchangeThe trend is like the shift of day and night on the earth.Correspondingly, we can transfer thequotationThe trend is divided intoBottoming, riseBuilding headAnd decline in four stages.In these forms, we can observe the exchange ratetrend chartSuch as the commonly used K line chart to speculate in foreign exchangeSome Huimin thinktechnical analysisThe indicators are obscure and difficult to understand, and people are afraid of them.In fact, exceptTechnical indicatorsIn addition, we can also observe the trend of the exchange rate to grasp the opportunity to enter the market.
K-line diagram
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The foreign exchange market operates continuously for 24 hours, rising and falling, and never stops.Its trend is like the day night shift on the earth.These forms can be judged by observing the exchange rate trend chart, such as the commonly used K line chart.
Bottoming stage
Exchange rateBottomingGenerally, there areTriple bottom、Bottom of head and shoulder、Double bottom(W bottom) and semicircle bottom (pot bottom), etc.The larger the horizontal construction area at the bottom, the more kinetic energy accumulated and the greater the rise amplitude.In this stage, the interval operation of buying low and selling high should be carried out. If it is conservative, you can give up the profit opportunity in this stage and move to the next stage.
Ascending stage
When the exchange rate breaks the previous bottomNeckline, indicating the beginning of a rising trend, and the rising height is generally the vertical height of the previous bottom.This stage is just like a young man with abundant physical strength, who tries his best to stay forward and run far and jump high. Although he has no endurance, he can start again after a short rest when encountering difficulties, just likequotationThe main stage of the rise is large and fast. Although it lasts for a long time, when encountering the pressure of upshifting, a new round of upshifting can be launched immediately once again as long as a little downshifting is done.The initial period of this stage should be the best time for us to pursue bravely.The rising stage is also the main source of our profits.
Head building stage
It is the later stage of the rising stage.At this timequotationThe trend attempts to push up again, but the bulls cannot break through the previous high point with all their strength, and finally break downNecklineComplete the head and enter the falling stage.At this stage, the middle and long term bill should be paid in the early stage,short-termTry fast in and fast out interval operation.
Falling stage
It is the same as the rising stage, but in the opposite direction.At this stage, people's minds are lax and the exchange rate is weakbrace, falling rapidly until the kinetic energy disappearsBottomingPhase.In the falling stage, we should be determined to fallStop lossStop the loss quickly, or the loss will be huge.
Analytical Skills
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1. Each sector has its own leader. When you see the leader move, you will immediately see the stocks after the second one.If you see Shandong, you will think of CICC Gold.
2. Pay close attention to the trading volume.Buy every hour of trading volume;When the trading volume is amplified at a low level, buy all;When the trading volume is amplified at a high level, it is sold completely.
3. Buying when the volume is reduced, selling when the volume is increased.Generally speaking, the increase of backtracking volume is when the main force ships, and it will be higher the next day.The opening price is higher than the closing price of the first day, or the opening price will soon be higher than the closing price of the previous day. Gap gap may also occur, but it is more difficult to ship.
4. The RSI bought when it hovered three times at a low level.Buy when the RSI is less than 10, and sell when the RSI is higher than 85.The RSI sold when it hovered three times at a high level.The share price has reached a new high. If the RSI cannot reach a new high, it must be sold.KDJ can be used as reference.However, the main force often pulls up in the tail market to defraud the technicians.Therefore, we must not only trust KDJ.In the short term, the WR% indicator is very important.Look at TRIX for a long time
5. There is no need to distinguish between high performance stocks and low performance stocks.There are only strong and weak ones.There are only strong stocks and weak stocks.
6. There is usually a technical callback when the moving average crosses.Buy when you cross up and sell when you cross down.Both the 5th and 10th lines are up, and the 5th line is on the 10th line.As long as it does not break the 10 day line, it will not be sold.This is usually a technical repair of indicators.If it is confirmed that it has broken the 10th line, the 5th line will turn around and sell down.Because the 10th line is very important for the people who do business.This is their cost price.They generally do not let the stock price fall below the 10 day line.But there are also strong Zhuang who will fall below the 10th line when washing dishes.But the 20th line will not break.Otherwise, he can't deal with the situation.
7. Chasing up and killing down is sometimes very useful.The strong are always strong, and the weak are always weak.The concept of time is very important.Don't be hard on yourself.
8. It is best to choose stocks when the market is in a slump.Buy all the money into the stocks that rise first or fall least.
9. Run fast with three consecutive long yin at high position.If you lose, you will run away.The low three Changyang buy, which is usually the beginning of recovery.
10. Don't underestimate the unexpected stocks in the rising trend.This is usually a big black horse.Don't despise problem stocks in the rising trend, which may also be a big dark horse.
11. Set a stop loss position.This is what many people are unwilling to do.Generally, it is better to set the stop loss point at the position of falling 10%.If you fall below the stop, you should admit defeat. Don't deceive yourself by pressing it for several months as a deposit.
The key point of short-term is fast in and fast out, but many shareholders do not know about short positions. Although it is also fast in and fast out, there is no time for short positions, and the reason for buying is not clear, so short-term losses are more.When considering buying, I will set some key points for observation. I will buy only when I believe that the probability of rising is more than 70%. Even so, there will be times when I miss.In addition, after buying, policies, the market and some other unknowable factors will affect the specific trend of individual stocks. So once you find that the situation has changed, you must stop loss in time. Don't wait to see.If you are not sure whether it will rise, don't do it.No matter how much or how little your capital is, whether profit or loss is important to you, you need to be responsible for your capital. Don't buy stocks with the mentality of gambling, or you will be hurt by the market in the end.
