A [savvy] trader, by constantly learning, constantly recognizing and correcting the original wrong trading concept, changes his trading habit of fundamental analysis and prediction and technical analysis and prediction to that of trading in accordance with trading rules, so the rest is to study How to establish a reasonable and long-term stable profit trading system as close to the objective market as possible.
As for those who cannot accept trading according to the trading system in concept, let's do what we want.
The education of trading, no matter how hard we make and how close to the objective facts are, It is also impossible to save all the traders involved in trading around the world 。 If every trader can become a profitable trader, the market will no longer exist.
To study how to establish a trading system that is more suitable for the objective market, I personally believe that, only The following three factors need to be considered:
（1） The amount of capital involved in the transaction;
（2） Personal psychological tolerance for loss;
（3） Inflection point confirmation.
Here are some reference tips for my personal thinking on these three factors (please don't follow my point of view blindly):
（1） Amount of funds involved in the transaction
Here, it can be subdivided into two sub factors: one is Participating in the transaction Absolute amount of funds ； Second Amount of funds involved in the transaction Proportion in total assets 。
(1) The reason for considering the absolute amount of funds involved in trading is that this amount of funds will determine the operation level (cycle) of a trader.
The operation level of 100000 yuan and 10 million yuan is different.
Some people say that the trading system I recommend is only suitable for retail investors, meaning that it is only suitable for small amounts of capital. This is because I don't understand my thoughts, that is, learning to live. My trading system, It is not a [single] trading system, It is a [group] trading system ， It is like a set of combined tools. The 30/120 trading system is just one example of this group of trading systems. It's like Buddha told you that you should try your best to help those who beg for food. This is almsgiving. Don't pretend that giving is such a way.
In the transaction, it should be a specific problem (that is, the absolute amount of funds involved in the transaction) to deal with the specific problem (select the operation level). It is by no means [unchangeable]. Institutional traders can use the trading system I recommend, including institutional traders with more funds than Buffett and Soros, and even those with more funds than them.
(2) The reason why we need to consider the proportion of funds in our total assets involves Real and practical The fund management of transactions is also the so-called position weight.
Some people say that I don't pay attention to fund management, which is due to the speaker's failure to read the blog carefully and understand my theory.
About the position, I once According to their own situation It has been mentioned in successive articles. Later, I found that it was meaningless to talk about positions based on one's own case and the total assets of one person (organization). Therefore, I once again wrote about the weight of positions.
For example, if a trader has a total asset of 10 million yuan and takes out 1 million yuan, 5 million yuan, or even 8 million yuan to participate in the transaction, his position in actual operation should be different.
Generally speaking, it is no problem to take out less than 30% of your total assets to trade, and use 70-80% of the funds in your account (the so-called heavy position). Of course, the prerequisite is to have a long-term stable profit trading system.
Without such preconditions, what about light warehouse? Isn't it a matter of time to die early or late?
If you take out more than 50% of your total assets to trade, your position must be different. My personal opinion or principle is that the loss of about 10 consecutive transactions is not enough to lose 30% of a trader's total assets 。 for instance. Take 60% of the total assets to participate in the transaction. For 10 consecutive failed transactions, 50% of the 60% of the funds will not be lost, that is, 30% of the total assets. If it is 80% of the total assets, it is 10 consecutive failed transactions, and the withdrawal of funds is less than 40%, which is about 30% of the total assets.
I personally believe that the loss of 30% of a person's total assets will not fundamentally change a person's living standard.
It is not easy to talk about the position here. Why? In addition to the factor that the amount of funds involved in the transaction accounts for the proportion of their total assets, the success rate of each person's trading system is different.
For example, if the total assets of both people are 10 million yuan, and both of them put out 5 million yuan to participate in the transaction, is the position the same?
Even if both of them have a long-term and stable profitable trading system, due to different operating levels and lines, their probability differences are still obvious, and their positions should be different. The average success rate of a trading system is the factor determining the position.
Different trading varieties and leverage ratios are also factors that determine the position.
In addition, the execution strength of one person is also an element that should be considered for the position.
When I said heavy position before, it was based on my capital amount, my trading variety, my trading system, my execution strength, etc.
When I said this, I wanted to [give examples] tell you that the so-called "must be light warehouse" in society Absolute statement Error for. It means that as long as a trader has a trading system with long-term stable profits, In account 's position does not have to be light.
Therefore, many people cannot fully understand my theory or even some of it just by reading my blog, because they do not have such a trading system, and certainly do not have such practical insights. It is not surprising that my theory is nonsense.
By the way, the social statements of [light position, homeopathy, plus (minus) position, stop loss] are wrong in principle and have no reference value. The reasons are as follows: How many are light warehouses? What is homeopathy? How to add or subtract positions? Are stops necessarily right?
There is no specific definition of light warehouse here. There is no absolute standard for homeopathy. There is no detailed rule for plus or minus positions. Finally, the sentence "stop loss is always right" is very harmful. Why? Stop loss without reasonable rules, sometimes, it will die faster than dead shoulder! Especially in leveraged and even highly leveraged trading products! Those who are predestined must remember!
(II) Personal psychological tolerance for loss
The same capital investment and the same amount of loss will produce different psychological fluctuations in everyone's psychology. Every trader must recognize his/her psychological tolerance for losses, which will affect the execution of every trader.
A trader's psychological tolerance for losses must be considered, but such subjective tolerance cannot be overemphasized, and the regularity of the objective market must also be considered.
Consider your psychological tolerance for losses, Is to determine the length of its own operating line 。 The allowable market fluctuation (amplitude) of the moving average of different values is different. A line 5 and a line 120 contain completely different market volatility, that is, the stop loss range is different.
We need to consider limiting losses to the smallest possible range, but this [smallest possible range] must also be a [reasonable] smallest possible range. The so-called "reasonable" as small as possible range refers to the reasonable range that conforms to the "objective market fluctuation law" as far as possible.
Too small and subjective stop loss range will cut a whole segment of the market that could allow profits to run into pieces, greatly reducing the profitability; It may even make the market operation that could have been profitable become the result of losses. However, too large a stop loss will also greatly reduce the efficiency of trading, and may even make the market that could have been profitable operate into a loss.
This is a point of wisdom and dialectical thinking of "getting and giving", and is the focus of a trading system. It involves the rationality of transaction results and the execution strength of users.
（3） Inflection point confirmation
During the development of the market, inflection points can be seen everywhere. Thousands of inflection points, we only take their own operation inflection points.
With the operation level and operation line, you can see the possible Inflection area Has. The next step is to determine Specific and very specific The rules of intervention. Such rules must be very specific!
Ambiguous intervention rules will cause great confusion in transactions, and confusion is the direct cause of losses.
The inflection point is only clear from the market that has come out. For example, the historical peak of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index in China's stock market is 6124.04, and the other obvious inflection points are 1664.93, 3478.01, 2319.74, 1849.65. These inflection points are unique and clear.
However, in the process of operation, due to the cognitive limitations of people on the objective market, it is impossible for us to make a unique and clear pre determination of these inflection points in advance. Some people think that they can do it. This is the thinking of "man conquers nature" and the intelligence of immortals. We are human beings and cannot do it. Therefore, The so-called "inflection point confirmation" refers to a market turning point probably Area.
This sounds contradictory. On the one hand, it says "inflection point confirmation", and on the other hand, it says "possible area". In fact, it is not contradictory. The word "confirm" refers to the details that must be clearly implemented in terms of technical methods; The word "possible" refers to the limitations of our trading rules on understanding the objective market, which will inevitably lead to the failure of the operation. There is no 100% correct operation. Our operating principle is "correct when wrong", where "wrong" refers to the proof according to the trading rules, rather than subjective judgment.
The above three factors are the elements that must be carefully considered to establish a trading system that is more suitable for the objective market.
Let's talk about the operation mode-- Continuous operation mode (commonly known as the operation method of always riding on horseback) and Discontinuous operation mode 。
For these two operation modes, I don't want to give a better conclusion on which method is better. What kind of transaction mode is more effective is actually an unsolved problem. It depends on the depth of a trader's understanding of trading and quotations. Such depth is an infinite variable.
Here, we need to make some elaboration on [discontinuous operation mode]. This operation mode can be divided into two types: the rule trading method and the analysis and prediction trading method.
The discontinuous operation mode in the analysis and prediction trading method is a intermittent trading operation based on the subjective analysis and prediction of each person. It is not the trading method I am talking about here.
The [discontinuous operation mode] I mentioned here refers to [a trading method in the rule trading method]. For example, when the operation line is up (down), only buy (sell) the K line online. Once the K line falls below the operation line and the direction of the operation line is still up (down), do not do backhand transactions and wait. There is no subjective analysis and prediction component, only the rule of probability. Therefore, although it is a discontinuous operation, it still belongs to the Rule Trading Method. This is just an example. There are many discontinuous operation modes that can be created by the interested parties themselves. Study, never live!
Each trader can select a trading mode that he can better grasp from the two trading operation modes according to his own understanding of trading and market and his own personality.
The rest of the conversation seems to be off topic.
All kinds of ideas, ideas and methods we come into contact with in our life and in our communication with each other are Relative Things. It means that the person who transmits a certain idea, idea and method is based on his own cognition. How high one's cognition is, how close one's thoughts, ideas and methods are to the objective facts 。 But the problem is that most people Think oneself His own cognition is the highest, that is to say, his thoughts, ideas and methods completely reflect the objective facts, in other words, they are absolutely correct, This is the absolutization of relative things 。
From the perspective of the audience (a transmitter becomes an audience on another occasion, for example, I am the transmitter and the audience), the cognitive depth of the transmitter's thoughts, ideas and methods is also related to its own cognitive level. The higher the level of cognition, the higher the ability to distinguish what the transmitter is delivering. On the contrary, there is no discerning power, and we can only [follow the crowd].
The same is true for the exchange of transactions. There are a lot of ideas about trading in the society. People who pass on such ideas (including myself) have a high level of cognition about trading, which is related to the correctness of what they say. As for the audience, how high their cognitive level of transactions also determines how deep their cognitive level of such conveyed ideas is, that is, how high their discrimination is.
Because most people have limited understanding of transactions, social communication about transactions For a long time It can only stay at a lower level.
However, such low level of cognition has been passed on from one person to another for a long time. After a long time, it has become some "trading rules" of "misinformation". Once there are ideas, ideas and methods that run counter to such "trading rules", most people's first reaction is "that is nonsense and wrong".
It really needs to be distinguished here! Not all so-called [new] ideas, ideas and methods are progressive. Some people really just want to be "innovative and innovative", which means something new It does not come from the observation and statistics of objective facts, but from subjective assumptions.
How to use [Discriminance] to learn? That is, how to distinguish between reasonable, correct and unreasonable, wrong things?
The method is very simple, which is to verify (observe, classify, and count) what the sender has against [objective facts]. What does not conform to the objective facts is unreasonable and wrong. On the contrary, it is reasonable and correct.
Previously, I wrote and reprinted more than 400 blog posts, all based on today's blog; Today's blog is a summary of more than 400 blogs in the past. [Because how to learn ideas and concepts is ultimately to establish a reasonable and effective method.]
A thinker, if not a practitioner, can only be said to be a useful person from the perspective of education. For himself, he is just a "dreamer" and a boaster. All of our thoughts are produced to guide the application to practice, and [practice] is the fundamental end result of [thought]!
Please read my blog with respect and objective "questions". That is to say, don't follow my blog blindly. I know very well that no one in the world has perfect cognition. I am also a person, and there must be fallacies. However, please don't come to my blog with subjective doubt and denial of all thoughts, ideas and methods different from your own. Too subjective emotions can make a person turn a blind eye to facts, reasonable things and correct things. Such emotions or attitudes do not hurt me at all, but may hurt you.
The reason why I spent a lot of time and energy writing these things is that I learned a lot of materials about trading education - after being recognized as the world's top textbook in the society, I found too many fallacies in combination with trading practice. I think that my things have a certain value, not because of subjective assumptions and self affirmation, but because of the practice of trading and the results of practice (trading results).
Trading is not a matter of fighting! Doukou is meaningless, because it can't bring you any profit results in trading.
If a trader really wants to make a profit in trading, he must be [objective] and put down [self].
Emptying your heart will [make your heart like a mirror], and the things that objectively shoot into your heart will appear in your brain. This is one of the qualities necessary for a good deal and a good life.
One of the reasons for saying quality is that it is not enough just to empty oneself, but also needs a certain degree of knowledge. To acquire complete and reasonable knowledge about trading, you need to learn a lot of positive and negative knowledge. In the initial stage of learning, you could not distinguish whether the knowledge was correct or not, because you did not have the ability to distinguish right from wrong at that time. You can only swallow it first, and then verify it in practice, eliminate the rough and retain the essence, eliminate the false and retain the true. The ability to distinguish right from wrong requires time and money 。 of course, When a person empties himself to a higher degree, it is relatively easier to acquire the ability to distinguish right from wrong. On the contrary, the cost may be relatively large.
Author: Find me, original address: http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_a3abd4740101dxne.htm