Author | Yang Ze
Production | Zero state LT (ID: LingTai_LT)
If 2023 is the year of "collective collapse" of new consumer brands, then in 2024, in just three months, new consumer brands have quickly entered the "big escape":
Zhong Xue reduced the price of ice-cream to 2.5 pieces from the sky high price;
Seesaw, a boutique coffee brand, was found to be in debt;
The online red cake brand Panda won't leave because of the capital chain problem;
The high-end yoghurt brand jasmine yoghurt was approved by Shanghai Municipal Consumer Protection Commission;
Just in the past 315, there were many negative brands such as Tea 100 Way, Book also Burning Fairy Grass;
...
On the one hand, the negative news continues, and on the other hand, new consumer brands continue to make big moves. Mixue Ice City, Shanghai Aunt, Chabaidao, and Guming have submitted listing applications and started to seek capital support from the secondary market. The problem is that the capital market does not seem to be optimistic about new consumer brands, Baiguoyuan, Naixue Tea, Three Squirrels, and Yixian E-commerce (the parent company of Perfect Diary) The share prices of listed brands have broken through the issue price, and it is difficult to improve in a short time.
In addition to listing, there are also franchises. The snack shops, restaurants and tea shops that originally joined are still expanding their territory. Ruixing, Naixue, Xicha and other halfway out brands have also increased their efforts to join. Haidilao, which has repeatedly said that it does not join in the franchise mode, has begun to plan a franchise business, which can be called joining, or benefit sharing. Once it is poorly managed, It is a proper risk sharing. Last year, Kudi Coffee, which fought with Ruixing for 300 rounds, opened stores crazily in the first half of the year and closed a large number of stores in the second half of the year. It is reported that Kudi Coffee is one of every three chain brand stores that have failed.
What's more interesting is to do second-hand catering recycling business for closed restaurants. Together with knowledge payment, how AI changes the world has become the hottest career in social media in 2023.
The slogan of "All consumer goods are worth doing again" is still ringing. The chill of the whole industry is not only passed on to every practitioner, but also is penetrating, penetrating and penetrating.
What happened to the new consumption? Can't do it after half of it is done again?
"All consumer goods are worth redoing"
All consumer goods are worth redoing!
This loud slogan was put forward in 2019, when it was said that new media, new channels and new products were the blessing of the three waves, plus the rise of the new generation of consumption upgrading in China, new consumption should stand!
After that, in 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic spread all over the world, and all walks of life were full of uncertainties. Eating, drinking, and playing became the most sure field, and hot money poured into the consumption track. From 2020 to the first half of 2021, sugar free water, new tea, ramen, coffee, baking, plant based, even spicy hot, fried string, condiments, underwear As long as the banner of innovation is raised, there will be capital to pay for it.
But Tesla is an innovation, and New Jetta is also an innovation. Can they be the same?
What is a new product?
It is to make the ice-cream again, add additives to the milk to make the ice-cream. The retail price of the milk is 2 yuan a bag, and it becomes 66 yuan a piece. Of course, there is a reason for 66 yuan a piece. After all, a rare cocoa powder called "Ecuadorian pink diamond" has been added. Do you know what 66 yuan means? Thanks to the efforts of the people of Henan, the price of an artificial diamond has almost reached 66 yuan. Even De Beers, who has been preparing to lower the price of diamonds for hundreds of years, has been busy lowering the price. Have you been stuck with the price that he got from others?
The so-called tea and coffee remaking now seems to be adding a lot of milk and sugar into tea and coffee to make a liquid cake with coffee flavor and tea flavor. Baking remaking means changing the original bread and cake into a new shape, a new price, an international label, and a sugar free bubble. I have discussed it with my friends for five years, Up to now, it is still unclear what is the difference between sugar free bubble water and sugar free carbonated drinks, that is, sugar free cola, Sprite and Fanta. Why can sugar free bubble water sell so expensive. Of course, this issue is not important now. Since last year, the leading brands of bubble free water have started to develop sugary drinks and cola flavored drinks.
As for the remaking of Malatang, fried string and noodles, the simpler understanding seems to be to set up chain stores, raise the price, and add WeChat Alipay to scan the code and order food. Is this new consumption? Can the new generation of young consumers be willing to pay the bill? They haven't drunk coke, eaten ice cream, drunk coffee, tasted milk tea, eaten fried string, spicy hot, noodles
This is not to help young people upgrade their consumption. It is purely to consume young people as leeks.
Are young people leeks? Of course not. Curiosity will kill cats and empty young people's wallets.
Have you brushed your hands too fast? Do you know if you have brushed? Have you ever painted a small red book? Have you brushed station B? Then you always brush the tremolo!
What's in the tremolo? In addition to news, knowledge and jokes, beautiful women dance, this woman's name is Xiaomei, that man's name is Xiaoshuai, and what new drinks the anchor drinks today, why the new floor washing machine arrived yesterday works well, which shop is going to punch in tomorrow, the skin can be as good as yourself with this cosmetics, the clothes can be as beautiful as yourself, and which tonic you should take if you want to be healthy, What books do you need to study well
Can you be curious? Are you interested? Can I not click the yellow car? Can you place an order?
Hundreds of millions of young people spend hundreds of millions of time on these platforms every day. At this time, the demographic advantage is reflected. Remember that famous joke? If everyone gives me 100 yuan, my wealth will surpass that of Ma Yun, but the "I" here has become a new consumer product, their investor, or platforms like Tiaoyin, Fasthand, Little Red Book, Ali, and JD.
Then the classic picture appeared. In a high-end club, investors, platforms and brands gathered in a hazy corner. While tasting the 82 year old Lafite, they conspired to discuss how to change the formula, how to make packaging, how to distribute goods, how to invest in traffic, and how to stimulate the curiosity of young people. They even developed a formula:
"5000 small red books, Zhihu posts+200 KOL grass planting+a big anchor broadcast room+a big promotion list=the birth of a new consumer brand."
I can see that this formula has nothing to do with new products at all. Only new media such as Tiao Yin, Little Red Book and Zhihu can "redo all consumer goods".
Is it possible to say that what new products, what new people, and what consumption upgrades are all gimmicks? What is really useful is new media. As long as you can play with new media, you can become a new brand?
So, to do consumer goods in new media is new consumption? Just like the Taobao brand in Taobao Mall?
But the disappearance of the Taobao brand tells us that "new" will really disappear in a flash.
Transient dividends
"Handu Yishe is not a clothing enterprise, but always an Internet enterprise. It should be an ecological operator of Internet brands." Zhao Yingguang, the founder of Handu Yishe, said that Handu Yishe is one of many Taobao brands.
In 2009, in order to remove the label of "fake goods", Taobao established the "Taobao Mall", which specializes in selling branded goods, but traditional offline brands did not pay for them at that time. Since traditional brands are not good, we can simply push a batch of brands by ourselves in a simple way. Later, priceless traffic was supplied to a number of online online brands at a very low price. Handu Yishe, Three Squirrels, Maibaobao, Lebo, Inman, Afu, Yunifang, and Mufa Family responded to the situation.
Then the capital saw the opportunity. Maibaobao continued to receive three rounds of investment of 80 million dollars, and Handu Yishe received tens of millions of dollars of investment. The Taobao brand suddenly became a hot spot, and Taobao support, capital assistance, and sales also broke new highs.
Taobao brands have also begun to tell stories about the post-90s youth, e-commerce dividends, and Internet changes. Is there a sense of deja vu?
The end of the story is listing. According to data, nearly 100 Taobao brands or Taobao brand related enterprises applied for listing in 2014 and 2015, with a total market valuation of more than 100 billion yuan.
However, at this time, the traditional brands that had recovered from their minds embraced Taobao. Competition and script increased the traffic cost. In addition to the capital advantage of traditional brands, and the high conversion rate brought by the brand heritage over the years, the Taobao brand was immediately driven off the altar.
At this time, everyone realized that Yanbi said that the Internet's Taobrand was just a kind of online stall business. Everyone who had set up a stall knew that the key to making money from a stall was the stall fee. No matter how bad things were, they could still make money without the stall fee. No matter how good things were, the stall fee was extremely high, and they had to lose money.
However, Taobao brand has always been taking advantage of the booth fees, eating the dividends of Taobao, and other traditional brands entering the market, so the traffic cost has soared. That is, after the booth fees returned to normal, a large number of Taobao brands immediately began to comprehensively collapse, giving up the sales leader to Nike, Uniqlo, Zara, L'Oreal, Estee Lauder and other traditional brands with deep foundation.
Online is no longer good, and Taobao brands have begun to promote their strengths and avoid their weaknesses, and to compete with traditional brands offline. The results are naturally predictable.
Of course, China's business sector is never short of dividends, especially on the ever-changing Internet. Just when Handu Yishe, Three Squirrels, Maibaobao, Lebo, Inman, Afu, and Yunifang were retreating online, the perfect diary was born. In the second year of its establishment, new dividends were found: the rise of Xiaohongshu, Tiao Yin, Fast Hand, Zhihu.
So on the Double 11 list in 2018 and 2019, Winona, Perfect Diary, HFP and other brands ranked in the top ten. Next, ice-cream, clothing and bubble water began to follow the path of "5000 small red books, Zhihu posts+200 KOL grass planting+one big anchor broadcast room+one big promotion list", and began to sell, select capital, and support platforms, which were collectively referred to as new consumption.
The previous Taobao store opening, e-commerce dividend, Internet reform, and post-90s demand have become fleeting stories in the end. What will be the difference between the new media, new channels, new products, and new people now?
The portal websites, blogs and online advertisements of that year have been replaced by the sound shaking, quick hand, little red book, and the difference between the cloud and the mud? The post-90s buy Nike, Uniqlo and L'Oreal. When they grow up to be middle class, they will like the more expensive Zhong Xuegao? Or what's the magic of online shopping that even the 70 year old can do, and dithering fast hand that the 80 year old can do?
In the final analysis, new consumption is also online stalls. Previously, things were novel enough, and you could also set up signs, hire models, and attract customers. Suddenly, it has become a bright color on the dark streets. Now, not only traditional brands have come back, but even the big brothers in Japan know about the online celebrity economy, understand and learn to shake the voice, fast hand, small red books, and understand that you need to set up signs and hire models, The originally dark street is now the same as the scene of the auto show. Who will choose new consumption?
Plus, "new" is as short as youth. The first time you buy it is new, and the second time you start to get old. Once you lose the sense of freshness, what is left for new consumption? What to do with new consumption?
Life and death moment of new consumption 2024
In 2023, 657 public financing cases were completed in the new consumer field, with a total financing amount of 35.39 billion yuan, less than half of that in 2022. Compared with 2021, it is a double whammy. New consumer brands have tight pockets, high promotion costs, and customers' wallets are tightly closed. What can we do? Price reduction has become a magic weapon for survival.
The product price needs to be reduced. In the first half of 2020, the average price of each order of Naixue will reach 43 yuan, and will be reduced to 34.3 yuan in 2022. Most of the new products promoted in 2023 will cost 15-25 yuan on average. In 2024, the company directly launched 9.9 yuan coffee milk tea, and started to compete with Ruixing and Mixue Ice City.
The valuation will also be reduced, the amount of financing/financing of new brands will be reduced, and the large investment will be reduced. In 2023, the proportion of large amount financing exceeding 100 million yuan will be less than 10%, and only 31% between 10 million yuan and 100 million yuan. Once there were ten million level financing events, now as long as the price is appropriate, it can be easily settled on the negotiation table.
The threshold of cooperation is also on sale. In 2023, the franchise price will be 980000 yuan for the first time. By last month, the franchise fee will have dropped to 400000 yuan. In 2024, when the contract is signed, a marketing subsidy of 60000 yuan will be available for a single store. It is estimated that before long, zero franchise fee will become the mainstream.
Why do you spell it like this? New consumers are too eager to help.
If you ask the AI big model, how can consumer brands continue to grow? In addition to product innovation, brand building and multi-channel marketing, he also suggests that you can "find help". If you ask what are the specific ways to "find help", in his answer, joining in distribution, strategic cooperation, mergers and acquisitions, and using external funds rank in the top four.
Looking at the trend of new consumption in recent years, we have to doubt that the script of new consumption in the past two years was written by AI model:
Mixue Ice City, Chabaidao, Guming and Shanghai aunts have submitted their Hong Kong listing prospectus to prepare for listing in Hong Kong;
The selection strategies of the two major brands of mass selling snacks, "Snack Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snack", were merged, and the number of stores suddenly became the first in the industry;
The current yogurt brand "jasmine yogurt" sold 30% of its shares to Junlebao Group;
Lele tea was sold to Naixue, and the yoga brand MAIA ACTIVE was sold to Anta;
Yuanqi Forest held a dealer conference with great fanfare and built a distribution network;
And almost all catering consumer brands are trying to join in and grow with the help of external forces;
…
Without help from the primary market, new consumers can only beg for alms everywhere. But can solutions known to AI big models really save lives?
Although the key to consumer brand competition is product, channel, marketing and price, which is recognized by the market and paid by consumers, if you want to see the sun of tomorrow, you should at least stay through the night, find good help, obtain new growth, and have the opportunity to see the future if you survive.
Among the Taobao brands in those years, the three squirrels that were successfully listed were sold to the "seven grid" of La Chapelle. Although they were also struggling, they were much better than the suffering of Handu Clothing House, Maibao, Liebo, Inman, and the closure of MG elephant.
However, thousands of troops cross the single wooden bridge. There are many new consumers. There are not so many new consumers who have the ability to get help. There are fewer new consumers who have the ability to help. There are not many opportunities for new consumers.
Three months after 2024, how many new consumers will survive the winter of 2024?
(Statement: This article only represents the author's view, not Sina.com's position.)
