On September 27, it was reported that the three major indexes collectively opened high, and then the trend was divided. The GEM index was consolidated at a high level, and the increase once expanded to 2%. The Shanghai Index maintained a volatile trend, and fell more than 1% near the noon closing. In terms of sectors, Huawei's concept stocks were boosted by the good news, and large consumption sectors such as aquaculture, food processing, and liquor concept rose across the board; Cyclic sectors such as nonferrous metals and iron and steel fell sharply, while lithium batteries, industrial machines, photovoltaic and other sectors continued to decline. On the whole, the market sentiment is getting colder, individual stocks fall more than rise, and the earning effect is poor. As of the midday closing, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30% to 3565.94 points; The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.55% to 14279.39; The index rose 0.43% to 3221.63.
From the panel view, the beverage manufacturing, liquor and chicken raising sectors led the increase, while the titanium dioxide, fluorine chemical industry and rare earth sectors led the decline.
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Hot spots:
1. Liquor
Guizhou Moutai 、 Luzhou Laojiao 、 Wuliangye 、 Shede Liquor Industry 、 Gujing Gong wine 、 Shanxi Fenjiu And other stocks rose sharply.
China Merchants Securities It was pointed out that the valuation risk of the liquor sector has been released after a sharp correction. Since September, the margin of emotional repression has narrowed, and the bottoming period has gradually passed. Near the end of the year, 1) the event catalysis represented by the release of positive communication signals by the new leader of Moutai is gradually coming; 2) Enterprise valuation has entered the switching range, high-end liquor has a good business model, and the cost performance ratio of configuration has become prominent; 3) Low expectations are the weight of exceeding expectations. In the general environment of consumer goods in the Mid Autumn Festival, although the drinks are not very popular, the completion of leading enterprises is generally high, and the performance of the third quarter is steady or even beyond expectations. At present, more high-end liquors (Mao, Lu, V) are recommended, and secondary high-end Shanxi Fenjiu Yanghe Shares Gujing Tribute Wine Jiugui Liquor 。
2. Steel
Jiuli Special Material 、 Jinling Mining 、 Baotou Steel 、 Shandong Steel 、 Chongqing Iron&Steel And other stocks fell.
On the news side, recently, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Anhui, Yunnan, Shandong, Liaoning and other places introduced power rationing measures, which affected the production of steel, nonferrous metal, chemical, textile and other industries in many places, and reduced or stopped production in succession. According to the relevant industry, there are many factors that lead to power rationing in many places. Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi and Jiangsu have recently been named by relevant departments, and the energy intensity has increased rather than decreased year on year. It is necessary to further improve and strengthen the dual control system of energy consumption. Many places immediately issued plans to strengthen the control of high energy consuming industries and take measures to limit power and production for some industries and varieties. In addition, according to the notice of several local power supply companies, the intensification of the contradiction between power coal supply and demand is also an important reason for the tightening of the supply and demand situation of local power grids.
Message side:
1. The State Council issued the Program for the Development of Chinese Women and the Program for the Development of Chinese Children, requiring the improvement of laws, regulations and policies related to population fertility, and promoting the integration of fertility policies with economic and social policies. Research and promote the inclusion of care service fees for infants and young children under the age of 3 into the special additional deduction of individual income tax, housing and other support policies, so as to reduce the burden of family childbearing, rearing and education.
2. The central bank launched a 14 day reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan in the open market, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.35%. Data shows that there is no reverse repo due today.
3. Liu Wensheng, Deputy Director of Guangdong Provincial Energy Administration, pointed out that this round of off peak power consumption was mainly due to the double growth of high temperature "sustaining" power load, the limited generating capacity of units in the province and other factors, not because of the dual control of energy consumption. Guangdong Province insists on promoting energy consumption dual control in accordance with laws and regulations, avoids the "one size fits all" approach, and takes measures such as shutdown, production suspension and rectification for "two high" projects such as construction without approval in accordance with laws and regulations; When the power supply is tight, priority should be given to ensuring the power consumption of residents' lives, service industries, etc., focusing on limiting the power consumption of "two high" enterprises.
4. The Program for the Development of Children in China (2021-2030): implement the national unified electronic identity authentication for minors online games, improve the game duration limit and other measures.
Future prospects ：
citic securities It is pointed out that style switching speeds up, weakens short-term games, strengthens value allocation, and distributes the market in the fourth quarter. First, the power and production restriction under the dual control of energy consumption is spread all over the country to suppress supply side expectations; Real estate credit restructuring affects real estate construction and installation investment, suppresses demand side expectations, and the market's expectations of economic growth are revised downward. Second, it is expected that the policy will respond quickly, speed up the correction of power and production restrictions, and gradually show the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and price stability, easing the fundamental expectation that the domestic economy will operate better in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. Third, macro liquidity is still at a stage of ample window. With the release of local real estate credit risk, macro liquidity will be more relaxed. It is expected that the comprehensive RRR reduction in the fourth quarter will be implemented in October.
CICC He believes that the market is still in a "tangle period", and the overall performance may be flat. Structurally, it may still be difficult for the market to show a clear direction in the short term: the growth sector may need to control the pace after a sustained rise since April; The consumption related sector is in a stable period after an early decline, but the consumption data is weak or suppresses the overall performance; The raw material plate, supported by the production restriction factor, rose sharply in the early stage and was also expected to overdraw more. Recently, it also experienced a large-scale decline due to the impact of regulatory expectations and other factors. Until the policy direction is clear, the market style may still be more tangled, and controlling the pace and stabilizing the income may be the current focus.
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