To talk about the new quality productivity, we must first clarify the background of the concept. Over the past 14 years, China's manufacturing value-added has always ranked first. Whether it is the stock size, incremental benefits or the position in the industrial chain, China has great advantages in data. However, this also brings two problems: the first is to benefit from trade, which causes "discomfort" of other subjects; Second, with weak global demand, the domestic market has not yet taken shape. What should we do about capacity?
The contest between China and the United States is not a purely ideological issue. From Washington Consensus to Biden Economics, the United States has changed from a "small government and large market" to a "large government and small market". The contest between China and the United States will also show the contest between "countries".
This competition is reflected in the specific level. I summarize it as financial war, cultural war and industrial war. There are also links between these competitions. China and the United States have their own comparative advantages and offensive and defensive positions. Today, from the perspective of industry, I think this is the dimension most suitable for new quality productivity.
First First, why should we develop new quality productive forces? The answer is certain. From the research reports of all parties in the first quarter, Fitch, IMF, Goldman Sachs and other institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth this year, but at the same time, they have also expressed concern about the development of real estate and the stimulation of domestic consumption. According to the data of the third quarter, the trend of foreign trade exports is not optimistic, so it is necessary to layout emerging industries as soon as possible.
The second question, which belong to the new quality productivity? Some people may mention such popular words as biomedicine, artificial intelligence or low altitude economy. This is true, but the new quality productivity is not a single industry attribute, but a complete set of systematic projects of industry, university and research, which needs the two-way force of market and policy. It can be the upgrading and transformation of traditional industries, and the remodeling of chains, such as digitalization, AI+, etc; It can also be a new supply industry born with the liberalization of the system, such as low altitude economy robot And other frontier fields.
Third, what tools do we need to develop new quality productivity? This is not a simple question, but I just want to start from one point today, that is, the industry guidance fund under the new national system, especially the industry guidance fund with national will under the background of central and local finance.
The domestic guidance fund began to develop more than 20 years ago, but it has only gradually taken shape in the last decade. Before and after 2014, according to the financial requirements, local governments have made great changes in enterprise subsidies and financial expenditure requirements in the current year, making the local government's means of attracting enterprises to retain and the timeliness of capital investment shrink. It coincided with the opening of IPO in 2014, and used the guiding fund of equity investment as a functional means to provide timely help to the government, It has solved the three major problems of attracting local enterprises (investment), insufficient timeliness and financial returns.
In the following years, especially after the outbreak, with the adjustment of real estate and the transfer of land finance to equity, the number of guidance funds also surged like mushrooms. According to Zero2IPO's data, the current guiding fund size is 12.19 trillion yuan, including some funds of infrastructure in the past, which should also be 6 trillion - 7 trillion yuan. Because this is the information of the primary market, it is inevitable that there are gaps and errors in this data, which is just a vague estimate. Recently, however, the growth rate of the guiding fund development has declined. According to Zero2IPO's statistics, there are about 2000 guiding funds, with a growth rate of - 25%. At present, the guiding funds in various regions also present the characteristics of return investment requirements and convergence of industry themes. For example, the "low economy" that was hardly mentioned before 2022 has been put forward by more than a dozen provinces recently to focus on development and be included in the investment direction of guiding funds.
Let me briefly talk about several modes of guiding funds. You must have heard Hefei model and Shenzhen mode In fact, the two models are not strictly defined. Shenzhen's pilot funds are characterized by a high degree of marketization, flexible policies and rich fund product matrix; The funds in Hefei have a strong industrial background, and the whole data industry chain "moves in" investment. Many people may misunderstand that these two models not only refer to the guidance fund, but also have the software and hardware environment and historical reasons behind them. Most of Shenzhen's finance enjoys policy dividends, without pressure to turn in; In the past few years, Hefei has successfully bet on the strategic emerging industries with the longest industrial chain and the highest added value, such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor and automobile.
After talking about the important input tools of the new quality productivity, let's talk about the new quality productivity itself.
The new quality productivity itself is not just a problem of science and technology. What the new quality productivity needs to solve is a market problem. Watt is not the first person to invent the steam engine, nor the last person to perfect the steam engine, but the first person to debug the steam engine to a maximum market. In my opinion, this is the new quality productivity. The opportunities brought by the new quality productivity are also worthy of attention.
For example, the recently popular large-scale model may be a "tragedy" for a craftsman with a certain skill. The law of "10000 hours" that used to be said may not exist, and foreign language communication can be realized in a few minutes through artificial intelligence tools. However, it is a good news for the "grindstone" industry. What is the grindstone industry? When I was in primary school, I read a story. Someone asked Edison: "You invented the light bulb, and you failed to choose the materials for a thousand times. Are you a failure?"? Edison said: I didn't fail, I just found a thousand kinds of materials that are not suitable for making light bulbs. In fact, he spent 20 years doing 50000 experiments. This is a "sharpening stone" industry, which needs constant polishing to create value. With the development of artificial intelligence, the milestone of the "grindstone" industry can be shortened rapidly. For example, Edison could upload all the material data to the computer and solve the material problem through data simulation.
Finally, let's talk about my views on the development of new quality productivity.
First, we should be alert to the lack of strategic perspective for quick success and instant benefit. At present, many of our industries are facing technological revolution, and many of the logic that can be copied in the past no longer exists. We must be patient both at the institutional design level and at the technical path level.
Second, beware of authoritarianism or technologism. Our country is currently promoting new energy, of which hydrogen energy is also a very important part. Our expert judgment is very accurate on the path of hydrogen energy marketization. For example, hydrogen is currently mainly used in commercial vehicles and energy storage. It is not China, but South Korea, that hydrogen can be used as a passenger car. Hyundai Motor of South Korea has ranked first in the world for three consecutive years, but even so, the annual sales volume is about 5000. This is because there are only more than 100 hydrogen refueling stations in South Korea, and the commercialization path is very far.
For many technologies, it is difficult to turn back once you bet on the wrong path. It is also difficult to reach consensus when the technical paths are complex. For example, lithium batteries were first made in Japan, so was hydrogen energy; Our current televisions are all LCD screens, and the earliest Japanese bet on plasma technology. However, Japan failed in the promotion process of the above technologies, not because of poor technology, but because of lack of consensus, ineffective internal friction, and lack of effective conversion from technology to business. At present, we should fully encourage the integration of industry, university and research. In my opinion, this is also the value of our institute, which has a platform for full communication among all walks of life.
My sharing today is over, thank you!
(The author, Xu Junming, is the general manager and director of Xicheng Zhiyuan Private Equity Fund Management Company. This article is the edited version of the speech delivered by the author at the NSE50 quarterly forum and the first quarter of 2024 macroeconomic situation analysis meeting on April 21, which was reviewed and revised by the author.)
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