Every reporter Ren Fei Every editor Xiao Ruidong
Last week, the bond market corrected, and some fund products also experienced a continuous decline in net worth.
While paying attention to the long-term trend of the bond market, the market also began to pay attention to the redemption pressure of such funds. After all, from the perspective of the current cost performance ratio of stock bond investment, more and more funds are beginning to favor equity assets, especially the investment attraction of A-share market is increasing.
Recently, the yield of long-term government bonds has continued to decline, with the yield of 30-year government bonds falling below 2.5%. Last week, the bond market was adjusted again. After the long-term bond interest rate hit a recent low last Tuesday, the bond market interest rate continued to retreat in the second half of the week, and the 10-year treasury bond interest rate rose from the low point by 8BP to 2.3%.
The head of the relevant department of the Central Bank said that the long-term treasury bond yield will always run within a reasonable range matching the long-term economic growth expectations.
Some institutional investors also believe that future inflation is expected to recover from a low level. As a nominal interest rate, the yield of long-term government bonds will increase as inflation rises.
From the perspective of specific fund performance, the best performance of pure debt funds last week should be medium and long-term pure debt funds. Some head performance products recorded a weekly yield of 0.7850%, but some products also performed poorly, and even there may be continuous redemption.
Wind (Wande) data shows that on April 25, the daily net value of Hongyi Yuanyuan medium and short term debt A fell 0.68%. It is worth noting that from April 23 to April 26, the net value of Hongyi Yuanyuan Medium and Short term Debt A fell for four consecutive days, down 0.03%, 0.09%, 0.68% and 0.03% respectively, and the growth rate of the net value of the interval recovery unit was -0.82%.
Although the fund manager later apologized publicly, the fund manager only said that he had made corresponding preparations for the liquidity management of the product to meet the redemption demand in various situations as to whether there was a continuous redemption problem concerned by the outside world.
In fact, for a long time, announcements about the adjustment of the accuracy of the net value of the bond base due to the large redemption occurred frequently. The risk and cost performance of the bond market investment are important factors for the industry to choose to leave.
For the current round of bond market adjustment, there is not much negative fundamentals, so it will not change the logic of long-term bond market bullish.
Some analysts pointed out that the current rate of return on investment in the domestic real economy is still low, while the exchange rate pressure has restricted the space for monetary policy to cut interest rates, and the domestic real interest rate is still on the high side, so the bond market is expected to remain in the bull market in the long run.
The core reason for this round of callback may be that the downward slope of interest rate in the early stage is too steep, especially the long end bond market is too hot, which constantly creates new highs, and the market needs some adjustment. With the guidance of the central bank on the bond market position and the liberalization of real estate policies in some cities, the market has witnessed the fermentation of information about real estate policies, which has led to a large and fast adjustment in this round.
In this regard, Wei Jian, the fund manager of the Bond Investment Department of Great Wall Fund, does not believe that it constitutes a substantial negative for the long-term bull market of the bond market. He said that from the perspective of trading sentiment, the current round of callback basically ended in the short term. Since April 24, the active bonds of 10-year treasury bonds have been adjusted back to 2.38% from the lowest point of 2.2160% to the highest point of 16BP, breaking the high point of 2.37% in March; The 30-year active bonds also retreated from a low of 2.4070% to 2.61% at most by 20BP.
When the active bonds of 30-year treasury bonds reach a range of more than 2.6%, the allocation value is relatively high, and the allocation force may buy large amounts of 30-year treasury bonds. The active bonds of 30-year treasury bonds quickly decline 4.5BP to 2.5650%. Whether it is treasury bond futures or cash bonds, it shows that the sentiment of the bond market is getting warmer. In the short term, the bond interest rate is basically stable.
Others expressed caution. On the basis of analysis, the Shanghai Dongzheng Futures Research News pointed out that due to the impact of regulatory policies such as the prohibition of manual interest compensation, and the bank's financial management must not use insurance asset management to allocate deposits, a large number of early stage financial management products bought medium and short-term bonds, while the investors' risk preference of financial management products was low and the liability side was relatively unstable. If the bond market continued to adjust, investors might redeem the products.
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