On September 17, US time, the US White House issued a statement saying that it would further increase tariffs on goods imported from China. The measures are divided into three steps: the first step is to instruct the Office of the United States Trade Representative to impose a 10% tariff on 200 billion products imported from China on September 24; The second step is to raise the tariff rate to 25% on January 1, 2019; Third, if China takes countermeasures against American agriculture and other industries, the United States will continue to levy taxes on the other 267 billion dollars of products imported from China.

The United States exerts tough pressure on China, aiming to gain more political leverage to leverage China's open market. However, there is no winner in the trade war, and this measure is undoubtedly a "double-edged sword", which will have many negative effects on the US economy.

First, the imposition of tariffs will undoubtedly increase the burden on American consumers. As early as August 27, at the hearing of the US Trade Representative Office on the US $200 billion commodity tax levied on China, the overwhelming majority of American business representatives attending the meeting believed that the lives of American businesses and Americans would be seriously impacted by the tariff measures. During the six day hearing, up to 95% of the enterprise representatives opposed the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods. Previously, the United States levied taxes on US $50 billion worth of goods imported from China, mainly focusing on industries such as Chinese made machinery and electronic parts that have limited impact on American consumers. However, the tax list of US $2000 goods includes many retail products, including appliances, tires, bicycles, and cribs, which will directly affect American consumers.

Secondly, unilateral measures are tantamount to throwing cold water on the US economy. The imposition of tariff increases the uncertainty and risk related to trade policy, which will eventually have a negative impact on enterprise confidence and investment spending. The decline in enterprise investment and consumer spending has reduced demand, which may prompt other countries to introduce more trade barriers, thus forming a vicious circle of rising protectionism and slowing economic growth. Edwin Foyna, founder and former chairman of the Heritage Foundation, an American think tank, believes that Trump's tax reduction and deregulation are creating a much-needed impetus for the American economy, but trade protectionism is "one foot on the brake". Du Dawei, a senior researcher of Brookings Institution, believes that trade protectionism will not improve the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and the imposition of tariffs will cause uncertainty in the world.

Third, tariff measures will hit the global supply chain that American enterprises rely on. Many American enterprises rely on low trade barriers to establish international supply chains, thereby reducing costs. It usually takes two to three years for an enterprise to adjust its supply chain. Therefore, the enterprises of the United States and its Asian allies are bound to be greatly affected. According to the data of Peterson Institute of International Economics, only 14% of Chinese manufacturers will be affected in the tariff list of computer and electronic products, but 86% of other countries in the supply chain will be affected; Other manufacturing industries, such as mechanical equipment, electrical equipment and spare parts, have been hit more severely by other countries in the supply chain.

Finally, American enterprises caught in the Sino US trade conflict may not return to the United States. Another purpose of the large-scale imposition of tariffs by the United States is to promote the return of American manufacturing, so that American enterprises afraid of being involved in the escalating trade conflict between China and the United States can bring their factories back to the United States. However, the supply chain scale and logistics capacity provided by China cannot be quickly replaced, nor can this trade measure be blocked. On the one hand, there are complete supporting industrial clusters in China, and the cost of transferring production capacity to other countries is too high. On the other hand, with the improvement of China's consumption capacity, the Chinese market is more flexible and attractive. American enterprises investing in China no longer only prefer low production costs in China, but also care more about being close to the consumer market. According to the survey data of the American Chamber of Commerce, 74.3% of American enterprises will be affected by the US tax on US $200 billion of goods imported from China, while 67.6% of American enterprises will be affected by China's counter-measures against US $60 billion of goods imported from the United States, including loss of profits, increased production costs, reduced market demand for products, etc. Nevertheless, 68.7% of American enterprises will continue to invest in China. Due to the Sino US trade conflict, 30.9% of the enterprises considering the adjustment of supply chain are prepared to leave the United States, and 30.2% of the American enterprises are prepared to move out of China. However, the American enterprises moving out of China are not returning to the United States, and the next best choice will be to move to Southeast Asia and India. (Ma Xue, American Institute of China Modern International Relations)

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