Original title: "Ice and Fire" of Beijing's 400 billion yuan restricted housing: coexistence of lottery buying and "soliciting customers from enemy camps"
Photo of coexistence of lottery to buy a house and "visiting enemy camp"/Wang Lixin
At the opening, thousands of buyers waited for the result of the lottery. After Beijing entered the "era of limited competitive housing", few developers have the courage to sell out more than 600 houses at one time.
Recently, a limited competition housing project in Beijing opened for the first time, with a total of about 1000 groups of customers participating in the lottery to buy houses. It is reported that its opening rate is much higher than the general limited competition housing.
It is quite impressive that at the opening scene of the project, where people are coming and going, there are many real estate consultants from surrounding competitive projects, including the sales staff from China Resources and China Overseas Limited Competitive Housing Project, whose goal is nothing more than to attract customers, focusing on the buyers who can not select a house or buy a Chinese Italian house model or abandon the number. These people walked in and out of the hotel, and the reporters of Securities Daily who were only on the scene were "chatted" for four or five times. Everyone who communicated with WeChat received a lot of room availability information the next day.
In fact, in Beijing's limited competition housing market, there are not many hot sales, but more unsalable sales that do not need lottery, or even discount. As Guo Yi, chief analyst of Asus, said, Beijing is burdened with the inventory of restricted houses with a market value of more than 7.48 million square meters, and the static deconstruction cycle has lasted for 82 months.
First year rush collection of restricted competitive housing
"The order of the numbers we have shaken is too backward. We don't know whether there are still rooms to choose from. It is estimated that all the houses should be selected." A woman with a girl who looks less than 5 years old is waiting in the room selection candidate area to call the number, she told reporters, "This is our first suite for self occupancy, and it took a long time to get the down payment, because the cost performance advantage of 'location+price' favored this project, and in this position, even if there are still houses with poor orientation, I will choose as long as there are two bedroom houses to choose from."
Just like the above women, the strong demand is the main customer group for the opening house of the project. According to the reporter, this project includes 4 buildings, 633 sets of houses, all of which are high-rise products. In terms of price, the average sales price does not exceed 54378 yuan/square meter, and the maximum sales price does not exceed 57097 yuan/square meter. This means that the total price of the main house types below 90 square meters is between 4.6 million yuan and more than 5 million yuan.
In terms of new houses, the limited competition house next to the project is the small tile kiln plot of China Resources Power Construction, with an average price of 54378 yuan/square meter, which is almost the same as the price of the above hot selling projects. Its main house type is also positioned as just in need. The whole community is a high-rise product, which has not been opened yet; The southwest Shijingshan Ancient City South Street plot has an average price of 58802 yuan/square meter. In terms of second-hand housing, the price level of Dacheng County around it is 76708 yuan/square meter; The average price of ocean landscape adjacent to the project is 65876 yuan/square meter; The price of Yard 60, Qingta West Road is 56433 yuan/square meter. In view of this, some house buyers adhere to the mentality of "making money when you get it" to participate in the lottery.
It is worth mentioning that, from the perspective of the overall limited competition housing market in Beijing, some limited competition housing projects can indeed rank among the top ten monthly sales rankings of new residential buildings in Beijing, but hot limited competition housing is still in the minority. Many of the restricted houses that have entered the market for more than half a year still have less than 60% of the degenerating rate, even if they are discounted and promoted to exchange price for volume.
"In the past two years, while increasing the supply of land, Beijing has also limited prices and products. Residential products are highly similar in terms of location, house type and total price, resulting in a large area of unsalable houses with limited competition. Real estate enterprises have to further reduce prices when the price has been limited, so as to survive." Guo Yi said that real estate enterprises with 7.48 million square meters of inventory are like a thorn in the back, The total amount of land transfer fees for only 50 unlisted plots reached 175.3 billion yuan, and the market value of 7.48 million square meters of restricted housing inventory exceeded 400 billion yuan. Real estate enterprises are facing the heavy pressure of performance and capital, but under the heavy control of location, product and price, they almost lost the tools to independently adjust the market rhythm.
Sales of most of the houses limited to competition are cold
In fact, over the past period, the reporter of Securities Daily also visited several restricted real estate projects. Although each project has its own unique location and supporting facilities, there is a serious homogenization of house types, and the phenomenon of regional supply piling up is obvious, including the phenomenon that several projects on the same land are listed and sold together in the same region, and even more than 3000 houses are available in some regions, This makes the oversupply in the market more obvious, leading to increasingly fierce competition.
At the same time, the fate of each project is also different. For example, even on the rest day, some limited competition housing project sales centers have a continuous stream of visitors, while others are difficult to see several groups of visitors one day. In addition, the limited competition housing project with a large overall size has absorbed some customer groups in the early stage. With more and more subsequent listing projects, the customer group gradually began to drain. The low opening and high going projects are no longer available, but they are increasingly difficult to sell.
Since the entry of restricted auction houses into the market, according to the data provided by relevant institutions, the online signing rate of restricted auction houses in Beijing in 2018 was less than 30%, and the average number of contracts actually sold was less than 40%. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that even though some projects are hot, the overall market is still depressed. The price of restricted real estate projects has been generally reduced by about 10%, but if the opening price can be reduced by 30% - 40%, it is qualified. If half of them can be sold, it is excellent. It is foreseeable that most of these projects will face losses.
In addition to second-hand housing, the house with common property rights will also be a strong competitor for the customer group competing for housing in 2019.
Some insiders said that 2019 is expected to usher in a year of centralized listing of jointly owned houses, including the upcoming listing, online purchase and jointly owned property projects under development, which will have an impact on the existing property market pattern. For example, in the case of similar supporting resources such as transportation and living in the same region, the common property houses are generally at least 10000 yuan/square meter lower than the restricted houses. Although not 100% of the property rights are held, the huge price advantage makes the purchase threshold lower, which is bound to attract many new customers.
Guo Yi said that up to now, only 43 plots (41 projects) have obtained pre-sale permission for part or all of the residential area of the 93 plots of restricted competitive housing that have been transferred and have been put on the market for sale, and 50 plots are still in the early stage of development. From the perspective of inventory deconstruction cycle, the total contracted area of the houses limited to competition in the eight month sales cycle is 730000 square meters, and the area that has been supplied but not closed has reached 2.49 million square meters. Based on this calculation, the current static deconstruction cycle of the houses limited to competition in inventory is up to 82 months. In addition, 11 plots were transferred in 2017, and the earliest one has been acquired for two years, but has not yet been listed for sale.
Guo Yi further said that the same quality causes unsalable, and unsalable stocks form, which crowd out funds and affect reinvestment. In the long run, I'm afraid that the market will get stuck. (Reporter Wang Lixin)
(Editor in charge: Yan Feng, Wu Xiaoqin)
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