According to the data of Rong360, in October, the average interest rate of national second house loans rose slightly by one BP compared with the previous month, reaching 6.07%, which also set a new high of interest rate in the year. More than 90% of banks have raised the interest rate of the second set of housing by more than 10%.

On November 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in October. The statistical data showed that the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first tier cities were flat on a month on month basis, while second-hand residential buildings fell on a month on month basis; The month on month growth of second tier cities fell back; The month on month increase in the price of new commercial residential buildings in third tier cities slightly expanded, while the increase in second-hand residential buildings fell back. House prices have dropped significantly.

At the same time as the housing price has been adjusted, the housing loan interest rate has hit the new year record. Rong360 data shows that in October 2018, the average interest rate of the first home loan in China was 5.71%, equivalent to 1.165 times the benchmark interest rate, a new high in the year; Compared with the average interest rate of 5.30% of the first house loan in October last year, it rose by 0.41 percentage points. It is worth noting that this is the first housing loan interest rate to rise for 22 consecutive months.

Wuhan's housing loan interest rate leads the country

According to Rong360 data, among 19 major banks, the lowest interest rate of the first home loan is 1.1 times of the benchmark; The maximum is 1.241 times of the benchmark; The average interest rate of the first house loans of four major banks in industry, agriculture, China and the People's Republic of China has risen by 16.4% over the benchmark interest rate. (In September, the value was 16.0%).

The top ten cities with the lowest average interest rate of first homes in China are Shanghai 5.19%, Xiamen 5.39%, Kunming 5.39%, Dalian 5.44%, Urumqi 5.44%, Beijing 5.47%, Fuzhou 5.49%, Taiyuan 5.49%, Haikou 5.58% and Chongqing 5.62%. Among the first tier cities, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the other two top cities, ranked 11th (5.62%) and 19th (5.72%) respectively. Shenzhen has maintained this level for three consecutive months.

In October, the average interest rate of national second home loans rose slightly by one BP compared with the previous month, reaching 6.07%, which also set a new high for the interest rate in the year. More than 90% of banks have raised the interest rate of the second set of housing by more than 10%.

Although the housing loan interest rate has risen as a whole, some hot cities have adjusted. For example, the average loan interest rate of the first house in Hangzhou in October was 5.68%, down 12 BP from 5.80% in the previous period; The average interest rate of the second house loan was 6.16%, and the average interest rate was 10 BP higher than that of the previous period. From the data, the average value of the first set of interest rates in Hangzhou has fallen for the first time since the housing loan interest rate broke the "6" in May, but the mainstream still generally implemented the benchmark to rise by 15%, and the interest rate is still at a high level.

The interest rate of Nanjing's housing loan fell for the first time in the year. In October, the average interest rate of its first housing loan was 5.89%, which was 5BP lower than the previous period.

Although Wuhan's housing loan interest rate fell in October, the overall level is still far ahead, with the average interest rate of the first housing loan being 6.26%; The average interest rate of loans for second set of housing was 6.67%, both of which declined. According to the data of Rong360, the first set of universal implementation benchmarks in Wuhan increased by 30%, and the second set of universal implementation benchmarks increased by 40%. The average interest rate is far higher than the national average.

"The interest rate of the first house loan this year has been 'gradually high', rising from 85% to 5.71% annually. The most important reason is that the regulation policy has been strict all the way. This regulation is not only the introduction of the loan restriction policy, but also the focus on the regulation of the amount of loans. Therefore, this year, the major banks not only have high interest rates, but also have a slow pace of lending. Queuing for loans is normal." Zheng Dayuan, general manager of Guangzhou Dayuan Mortgage Agency Service Co., Ltd., told reporters of the 21st Century Economic Report.

Although the housing loan interest rate continues to rise, the growth rate has slowed down significantly, and the inflection point of interest rate is looming. Yan Yuejin, the research director of the think-tank center of E-House Research Institute, said in an interview with the 21st Century Economic News reporter, "At a glance, we know that all leopards, the loan interest rate of Hangzhou's first house has broken 6 for the first time in this year, which can be seen that some banks' housing loan policies have already shown signs of loosening.".

The non-performing rate of housing loans is only 0.3%

However, the industry generally believes that the adjustment will not exceed expectations. "The inflection point may occur in 2019, but it is unlikely to be significantly reduced. After all, the regulation on real estate has not been relaxed." Zheng Dayuan said.

Yan Yuejin also believes that up to now, the most stringent housing loan control policy has basically been passed. In the first half of this year, some banks' housing loan strategies were relatively conservative, so by the end of the year, if commercial banks had not completed their loan business, they would also optimize such housing loan business. However, similar policies are more beneficial to those who just need to buy houses, and they are still carried out under the general framework of "housing is not speculation".

"The data of October is mainly just in time for the end of the year, and some banks will accelerate the shipment of the amount that they did not lend before. At present, the liquidity of banks has become loose, and it is expected that the situation of housing loans next year will be better than this year, but there is little possibility of major change." Yan Yuejin said.

"From the perspective of business, banks are also very willing to do mortgage business. First, in the context of rising house prices, the probability of non-performing mortgage assets is very low. Second, mortgage loans are large, long and profitable. A set of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen mortgage loans are generally more than one million, and the loan duration is generally more than 20 years, forming a very stable bank asset. However, in the context of the current regulation of real estate, the total amount of housing loan is controlled, and there is no sign of loosening for the time being. It is unlikely that the housing loan interest rate will be lowered for some time in the future. " Said the head of Guangdong Branch of a state-owned bank.

At the beginning of this month, the People's Bank of China released the China Financial Stability Report (2018), which pointed out that for a long time, China has implemented prudent housing credit policies and has more stringent down payment requirements than most other countries. In 2017, the average mortgage to loan ratio of individual housing loans in China (that is, the amount of mortgage loans approved in the current year divided by the value of collateral approved in the current year) was 59.3%, and the ability to resist risks was strong. In addition, the non-performing loan rate of household sector in China has been at a low level. At the end of 2017, the balance of personal non-performing loans was 614.93 billion yuan, with a non-performing ratio of 1.5%, 0.35 percentage points lower than the overall non-performing ratio of bank loans; The non-performing ratios of personal housing loans, personal credit card loans and personal auto loans were 0.3%, 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively, 0.1, 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous year.

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