◎ Reporter Jones Zhang

The total amount of RMB deposits in China is moving towards 300 trillion yuan, but the pace of growth is slowing down. In the first quarter of this year, new RMB deposits were 4.15 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Household deposits and non-financial enterprise deposits decreased by about 1.3 trillion yuan and nearly 3 trillion yuan respectively year on year.

What are the main factors driving the decline of deposit growth? Where are the idle funds of enterprises and residents?

Less loans affect deposit growth

In the first quarter, household deposits and non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 856 trillion yuan and 222.5 billion yuan respectively. The deposit of newly added enterprises increased significantly on a year-on-year basis, which was the biggest drag factor on the decline of deposit growth; The newly increased household deposits and financial deposits increased less and decreased from increase to decrease on a year-on-year basis respectively; However, the deposits of non banking financial institutions increased by more than 700 billion yuan year-on-year.

"In March, the growth rate of deposits in the corporate sector further declined, the growth rate of deposits in the residential sector fell back to the low level since 2019, and the growth rate of financial deposits also showed a downward trend." Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said.

The reporter found that multiple factors drove the year-on-year growth of deposits in the first quarter - the record "15.39 trillion yuan" of new deposits in the first quarter of last year raised the base; The loan derived deposits in the first quarter saw a year-on-year decrease of 1.14 trillion yuan in new loans, which was an important driver of the year-on-year decrease in deposits in the same period; After several rounds of deposit interest rate cuts, the willingness or margin of enterprises and residents to save has weakened; Under the background of combating capital idling, enterprises have reduced the phenomenon of "upside down" arbitrage of deposit and loan interest rates.

"From the financial point of view, deposits are mainly derived from loans. After obtaining loans, enterprises will gradually convert to various employee salaries and increase household savings deposits if they are used for production and operation. If they are used for investment, they will quickly convert to corporate deposits of counterparties. If they are not used for production, operation and investment, they will directly convert to deposits of their own enterprises." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that the decrease in RMB loans in the first quarter was the main reason for the decrease in deposits in the same period.

Some analysts believe that under the background of cracking down on fund idling, the arbitrage of enterprise credit funds has decreased, and the capital turnover cycle tends to be activated, which is another reason for the year-on-year decrease of enterprise deposits in the first quarter.

"The rapid growth of deposits in the first quarter of last year has a certain relationship with the rapid growth of bill financing in the same period." Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, believes that the demand for credit in the first quarter of last year is insufficient, and banks have a certain amount of bill impulse. Due to the low interest rate of bills, some enterprises will directly deposit funds in the bank after bill financing to earn interest margin, which has boosted the increase of deposits. This year, the regulatory authorities strengthened the supervision on the idle movement of funds. At the same time, the economy is operating well, and the demand for loans has been boosted. Although the new loans in the first quarter increased less than the same period last year, the financial data after removing the bill factor still performed well.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly believes that the problem of "credit deposit" fund idling has been curbed to a certain extent. He also said that with the reduction of deposit interest rate, the savers' willingness to save may be marginal weakened, which is also a reason for the year-on-year decrease of new deposits.

Some financial products absorb deposit funds

In the first quarter, when the deposits increased less, which areas did the funds in the hands of enterprises and residents mainly flow to?

Analysts believe that some deposits may flow to asset management products, and may also be closely related to investment acceleration, but the boosting effect on consumption may be limited temporarily.

Mingming believes that some financial products will absorb the original deposit funds, especially low-risk products such as wealth management and debt base. In the context of relatively controllable withdrawal, it can provide more attractive investment returns than deposits.

"In the same period last year, a considerable part of new deposits flowed back to the banking system from the capital market and various fields." Lian Ping said that the increase in new deposits in the first quarter of this year was less than the same period last year, probably because the market performance improved and funds flowed out to related fields. The deposit of non banking financial institutions increased year on year in the first quarter, which reflects that after the deposit flows to the stock market and fund market, it is finally reflected in the deposit of financial institutions in banks.

However, Wang Qing believes that at present, residents' housing purchase expenditure is reduced and consumption is weak, and residents may tend to "save" rather than "spend". Considering that the current market interest rate is significantly low, the diversion effect of financial investment on the deposits of residents and enterprises may be limited.

Deposit growth rate or maintain a low level

Looking forward to the changes of subsequent deposits, Mingming said that, considering the decline of deposit interest rates and the slowdown of credit derived deposits, the growth rate of subsequent deposits may remain at a low level. However, it is expected that the overall willingness of residents to save is still high, and the downward pressure on deposit growth may ease in the later period as the base falls.

Wang Qing predicted that in view of the downturn in the property market, consumption needs to be boosted and other phenomena may continue, resident deposits will maintain a rapid growth in the short term; In terms of corporate deposits, as there is still room for acceleration of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment will also maintain a rapid growth, and the sales receipts of real estate enterprises with greater impact will continue to be low. It is expected that the growth rate of corporate deposit balance will remain at a low single digit growth level.

"In the context of the real economy where finance gives way to profits, the operational pressure forces banks to enhance their awareness of actively managing deposit costs, and the behavior of collecting deposits with high interest rates has decreased. It is also normal for deposit growth to slow down." Mingming believes that, considering the slowdown in credit growth, from the perspective of matching the source of funds with the use of funds, there is no need to worry too much about the "deposit shortage" phenomenon, But some banks also need to solve the problem of collecting deposits. In the future, commercial banks must strive to expand low-cost and stable sources of funds, improve the efficiency of fund use, and expand asset side income to cope with downward pressure on interest margin.