Topic: Can the hype of "dragon flying and phoenix dancing" be continued due to the intensification of short-term differences?
Global financial media last night and this morning Headlines of common concern mainly include:
1、 Powell urged Fed economists to remain flexible in making predictions
2、 The 30-year mortgage interest rate in the United States fell the most in more than a year
3、 US 30-year bond yield fell to the lowest point in more than one month
4、 Brent crude oil fell below 80 US dollars, weak demand caused investors to worry
5、 German central bank governor Nagel resists interest rate cut discussion, saying the "last mile" of fighting inflation is the hardest
6、 Former European Central Bank President Draghi: The Eurozone is "almost certain" to fall into economic recession
Powell urged Fed economists to remain flexible in making predictions
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the central bank must be willing to jump out of the complex mathematical simulation traditionally used to predict the economy.
Powell made an opening speech at the meeting to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Federal Reserve Research and Statistics Department. At this time, forecasters must think outside the model. "
In his speech, he did not comment on monetary policy or economic prospects.
The 30-year mortgage interest rate in the United States fell the most in more than a year
The average interest rate of 30-year mortgage loans in the United States hit the biggest drop in more than a year last week, pushing the application for house purchase to the largest increase since the beginning of June.
The data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on Wednesday showed that the contracted interest rate of 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell 25 basis points to 7.61%, the lowest level since the end of September. In the week ended November 3, the housing application index increased by 3%.
Mortgage interest rates fell for the second consecutive week for the first time since mid June, moderately easing the troubled real estate market. However, the mortgage interest rate is still at an uncomfortably high level, which makes many homeowners who lock the interest rate at a much lower level flinch. This has led to pressure on supply and kept house prices high.
US 30-year bond yield fell to the lowest point in more than one month
The yield of the US 30-year bond fell to its lowest level in more than a month on Wednesday. As traders waited for this week's US bond bidding, market concerns about supply dissipated.
The yield of this long-term US bond fell by 7 basis points to 4.66%, the lowest since September 29, and fell below the key technical level of the 50 day moving average, indicating that the decline may continue. Short term US bond yields also fell, but remained within the range of the past week.
The decline of crude oil price to $75 per barrel provided support for this trend, but traders said that the price change seemed to be mainly due to the position adjustment caused by the decline of US bond yield last week.
Brent crude oil fell below 80 US dollars, weak demand caused investors to worry
Crude oil futures fell below $80 per barrel for the first time in more than three months, and the weak fuel demand outlook overshadowed concerns that the Middle East crisis might lead to supply disruptions.
Brent crude oil futures fell to the lowest intraday price since July. After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, the oil price once soared to more than 90 dollars.
As supply in the Persian Gulf has so far not been affected by the conflict, attention has turned to macroeconomic deterioration and weak oil fundamentals. Demand in the United States and Europe has been sluggish and consumption has been unstable.
German central bank governor Nagel resists interest rate cut discussion, saying the "last mile" of fighting inflation is the hardest
Joachim Nagel, governor of the German central bank, refuted the discussion on when the European Central Bank could start to reduce borrowing costs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also warned against premature policy easing.
Nagel said in London on Wednesday that it was "no help" to talk about interest rate cuts when the basic inflation in the 20 countries of the euro area was still higher than 4%. He warned that the "last mile" to bring inflation back to 2% was the hardest, despite the increasingly obvious effect of the ECB's monetary tightening action.
"I don't like this discussion about when to lower interest rates," Nagel said. "This discussion is useless. It's too early."
Former European Central Bank President Draghi: The Eurozone is "almost certain" to fall into economic recession
Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank, said that the euro zone would almost certainly fall into recession by the end of 2023.
He said at a meeting organized by the newspaper in Brussels on Wednesday that the economic recession may not be "deep" or "destabilizing".
Before his comments, data showed that the economy of the euro zone contracted in the third quarter, dragged down by Germany and continuous interest rate hikes to control inflation.
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