Shell Finance Reporter of Beijing News Jiang Fan Editor Chen Li Intern Guo Xujun
On May 17, the People's Bank of China issued a number of housing loan related policies.
For example, in terms of the down payment ratio, the new policy requires that the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first housing should be adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the second housing should be adjusted to not less than 25% for resident families who purchase commercial housing loans.
In terms of individual housing loan interest rate policy, the new policy abolished the lower limit of the national level commercial individual housing loan interest rate policy for the first and second housing.
The insiders pointed out that, on the whole, the basic thinking of the People's Bank of China on optimizing the housing finance policy has not changed. Promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market and meeting the rigid and improving needs of the market are the key points of the policy. The policy design and implementation at different stages not only reflected continuity, but also strengthened targeted adjustment in combination with the form requirements, and the policy strength gradually increased.
"The new round of support policy is the continuation and expansion of the previous policy, which further improves the financial support." Another industry insiders predict that the new policy will drive most cities to cancel the floor of mortgage interest rates.
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01
Orderly connection of policies
67 cities have cancelled the first house loan Interest rate floor
According to the announcement of the People's Bank of China, the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial individual housing loans for the first and second homes at the national level will be cancelled. Each provincial branch of the People's Bank of China shall, in accordance with the principle of implementing policies based on the city, guide the self-discipline mechanism of interest rate pricing in each provincial market, and independently determine whether to set the lower limit and lower limit level of commercial personal housing loan interest rate in each city under its jurisdiction according to the real estate market situation in each city under its jurisdiction and the regulatory requirements of the local government.
It is worth noting that this is also the first time that the People's Bank of China has cancelled the lower limit of interest rate for the first house loan and the second house loan on the basis of the previous dynamic adjustment mechanism of interest rate for the first house loan.
In September 2022, the central bank will pilot to loosen the lower limit of mortgage interest rate in a few cities, and in December of the same year, it will be extended to the whole country, and the first dynamic mechanism of mortgage interest rate will be implemented.
Some insiders believe that the People's Bank of China has established the first dynamic adjustment mechanism of housing loan interest rate, and local governments can independently choose whether to cancel the lower limit of local housing loan interest rate according to this mechanism, which has already begun the conditional cancellation practice.
Data shows that by the end of April this year, 67 of the 343 cities in China had cancelled the lower limit of the first house loan interest rate. Some people in the banking industry pointed out that after the lower limit of the interest rate for housing loans in these cities is lifted, the interest rate will decline to a certain extent, but the market will form a new and more stable equilibrium level after full competition, which will drive the new issuance of housing loans locally.
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02
Follow the trend and optimize the policy
Down payment ratio and interest rate policy lower limit adjustment
Significant effect on incremental housing
"The People's Bank of China has comprehensively considered multiple factors in its policy adjustment at this time." According to the analysis of market participants, the People's Bank of China's policy adjustment of housing loans is the implementation and timely response to the requirements of the Political Bureau meeting at the end of April on "overall research and digestion of existing housing and optimization of incremental housing policies and measures". The adjustment of the down payment ratio and the lower limit of the interest rate policy will have an obvious effect on incremental housing.
Some insiders pointed out that from the perspective of promoting the marketization of housing loan interest rates, the current situation is also a good time window, the economic recovery trend is constantly strengthening, all parties have a deeper understanding of the major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, and further optimize the policy is also going along with the trend.
The reporter from Shell Finance also learned that the People's Bank of China chose to optimize the housing finance policy at this point, and also considered supporting the steady growth of credit.
For example, Vanke, a leading enterprise in the industry, admitted at the recent investor exchange meeting that the company is currently facing phased operating difficulties and short-term liquidity pressure. The local government is also actively taking various measures to support local real estate enterprises to cope with difficulties.
It is also understood that many local governments are willing to cancel the lower limit of local mortgage interest rates. Industry insiders judge that if most cities across the country cancel the lower limit of the policy on housing loan interest rate, the future housing loan interest rate will decline significantly, which will help to continue to release rigid and improved housing demand and ease the pressure on housing enterprises to collect payments.
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03
Good policy response
It is expected that the new policy will drive most cities
Cancel the lower limit of housing loan interest rate
"It is expected that the new policy will drive most cities to cancel the lower limit of interest rate for housing loans." Market experts predict that after this policy adjustment, more cities will cancel the lower limit of interest rate, and the space for independent pricing in some hot cities that retain the local lower limit will also be significantly expanded.
According to incomplete statistics of Shell Finance reporter, except for a few cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the lower limit of housing loan interest rate in most cities has been reduced to the national unified level.
Data shows that the interest rate of housing loans and the burden of house buyers will decline significantly. After the implementation of the policy, the housing loan interest rate in most cities may decline by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points; The total interest expense can be reduced by more than 70000 yuan according to the calculation of 1 million loan, 30 year term and equal principal and interest repayment. Market participants further estimated that the interest expenditure on housing with improved sexual demand would decrease more.
Some insiders pointed out that the policies of the People's Bank of China are conducive to reversing market expectations and promoting the release of housing demand.
The reporter of Shell Finance learned from the intermediary agencies that after many local governments successively relaxed or cancelled the purchase restriction measures, the housing market has picked up. The turnover of new houses in Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing and other cities has increased, and the number of houses taken by intermediaries has increased significantly. Some potential buyers are also waiting for the introduction of more powerful real estate support policies, with a "wait and see" mentality. After the People's Bank of China issued a package of policies, it will meet the policy expectations of property buyers to some extent, and is expected to form a "policy bottom" in the real estate market.
According to the analysis of other market participants, the degree of interest rate marketization and the efficiency of financial resource allocation will be further improved. This policy adjustment still reflects the clear idea of the People's Bank of China to promote the marketization of interest rates, and also shows the determination of the People's Bank of China to continue to promote the marketization pricing ability of financial institutions. In the future, banks will negotiate with customers to determine the interest rate level of housing loans in accordance with the principle of marketization, further improve the level of interest rate marketization, and constantly optimize the allocation of financial resources.
In addition, banks can also maintain steady operation through "volume premium". Industry experts said that in the future, the housing loan will still be the best asset of the bank. It is expected that the implementation of the policy will drive the increase in the new issuance of housing loans of the bank, to some extent, it can make up for the decrease in interest income due to the decline in interest rates. Recently, many departments have also strengthened the regulation of "idle arbitrage" and "manual interest compensation" of bank funds, and the cost of bank funds will also decrease accordingly, which is conducive to stabilizing the net interest margin of banks.
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