The slow ox is coming? The new "National Ninth Rule" is hotly discussed by institutions: such stocks will benefit| Capital Market _ Sina Finance

Author Yi Yanjun

Edited by Wu Yanling

On April 15, A-share rebounded in shock, and all three indexes rose more than 1%. It is worth noting that the trend of large and small indexes has sharply differentiated, with the micro stock index falling by more than 9% and more than 500 shares falling by more than 9%.

Recently, the State Council issued Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Risk Prevention to Promote the High Quality Development of the Capital Market (hereinafter referred to as the new "National Ninth Article" or "Opinions"), which guides the construction of the capital market system from nine aspects. On April 12, the CSRC and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges simultaneously issued supporting policy documents and self-discipline rules.

Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in an interview with the media a few days ago that the new "National Nine Rules" adhere to a systematic thinking, a combination of far and near, and a comprehensive policy. The implementation arrangements organized and implemented with the CSRC and relevant parties will jointly form a "1+N" policy system. "1" is the Opinion itself, and "N" is a number of supporting system rules.

"Next, we will study and formulate reform measures to promote the long-term development of the capital market on the basis of in-depth research." Wu Qing pointed out.

In retrospect, the "National Nine Rules" issued in 2004 and 2014 have boosted the market.

The strategy team of Ping An Securities believes that, The "1+N" policy system focusing on the new "National Nine Rules" has been gradually implemented to promote the high-quality development of the capital market and more transformation to the investor market. The return on market investment is expected to improve for a long time. The follow-up incremental policies in terms of medium - and long-term funds and enhancing the internal stability of the market are still expected.

　　 Many institutions said that the new "National Ninth Rule" has made stricter requirements on dividend distribution, repurchase and market value management of listed companies, and the leading companies with high performance and high dividends are expected to benefit.

　　 Clarify development rules

　　 Guohai Securities According to the analysis of the strategy team, the main body of the new "National Ninth Article" includes three aspects: first, requirements for listed companies, second, requirements for financial institutions, and third, deepening reform. Among them, the idea of strengthening supervision on enterprise listing, on market and delisting systems, as well as compensation management of financial institutions is clear.

Compared with the opinions in 2004 and 2014, Guolian Securities The strategy team pointed out that, in general, the first two opinions mainly focused on development, expanding and increasing the market (such as accelerating the listing of multi-level markets, expanding the opening up and introducing foreign capital). This opinion focuses on both development and supervision, that is, to strengthen and improve the quality of the market (For example, supervision on the listing, share reduction, dividend distribution and delisting of companies, encouragement of mergers and acquisitions, return of market participants to their original source, head merger and acquisition, entry of long-term funds into the market, and opening up to the outside world).

　　 From the word frequency analysis, the frequency of "strict", "high-quality", "development" and "supervision" is high.

　　 Tianfeng Securities According to the analysis of Wu Kaida's team, the focus of the "National Nine Rules" in 2004 is to expand direct financing and improve the modern market system. In 2014, the "National Nine Rules" focused on giving play to the role of capital market in optimizing resource allocation, promoting innovation, entrepreneurship and structural adjustment. The new "National Ninth Article" focuses on clarifying the rules for the development of the capital market and strengthening supervision over risks that endanger the sound development of the capital market.

In addition, China Merchants Securities The strategy team believes that different from focusing more on the "financing end" in the past, this "National Ninth Article" emphasizes more on investors as the center, fully affirming the investment and wealth management attributes of the capital market.

　　 Boost the slow bull market?

After in-depth review of the macro background, policies and regulations issued by the "National Ninth Rule" in 2004 and 2014, as well as the subsequent interpretation of the stock market, the strategy team of China Merchants Securities found that the previous "National Ninth Rule" has greatly boosted the subsequent market performance. Specifically, two months after the promulgation of the "National Ninth Article" in 2004, the market welcomed general growth. After the promulgation of the "National Nine Rules" in 2014, from January 2014 to June 2015, the A-share market experienced a transition from structural bull to overall bull, ushering in another round of bull market after 1999-2001 and 2005-2007.

From the perspective of market style deduction, after the first two "National Nine Rules" were issued, the overall market style is relatively dominant in the short term. From the perspective of industry performance, after the first two "National Nine Rules", the traditional industries, such as steel, non-ferrous metal, coal, non-ferrous metal, etc., are relatively dominant.

The strategy team of Guohai Securities pointed out that, looking back at the stock market after the introduction of the "National Ninth Rule" twice in history, the market performance was different after the implementation of the opinions, which was mainly due to the implementation rhythm of the follow-up supporting policies and the actual implementation of the main reform measures in the opinions. Considering the fast pace of implementation of this opinion and supporting measures, the current liquidity environment remains broad and loose, and favorable measures are expected to drive the market out of the shock zone.

At the same time, some institutions believe that the release of the new "National Nine Rules" will help further improve the overall risk appetite of investors.

　　 CICC The Research Department believes that the release of the high standard system of the new "National Nine Rules" will help to activate the capital market and improve investor sentiment. At the same time, it will enhance the internal stability of the capital market and enhance the ability of China's capital market to serve the real economy.

　　 CSC The strategy team analyzed that after the first two "National Ninth Rules" were released, the A-share market saw a sharp rise, and this "National Ninth Rules" may help the market get out of the slow market.

From a deeper perspective, "The opinions and supporting policies are good for A shares in the medium and long term, or another round of reform dividend period for the construction of capital market system. Phases are conducive to the steady value return of high-quality blue chip assets, as well as the repricing of market liquidity on assets of different quality." The strategy team of Guolian Securities pointed out that.

The Wu Kaida team of Tianfeng Securities analyzed that the implementation of the new "National Ninth Rule" and the subsequent supporting rules will help the capital market eliminate chaos, reshape value, and enhance the internal stability of the capital market. The quality of listed companies is expected to further improve, the capital structure is more reasonable, the basic system is more perfect, the market regulation mechanism is more effective, and professional services are better, With stricter regulation and law enforcement, A-shares can better support the real economy and return investors.

　　 Leading companies with high performance and high dividend will benefit

Which industry sectors are expected to benefit from the introduction of the blockbuster document?

The strategy team of China Merchants Securities pointed out that the "National Ninth Rule" has made more stringent requirements on the management of dividends, buybacks and market values of listed companies. If the follow-up policies are further implemented, and with the disclosure of the annual report and the quarterly report performance forecast, the performance of the excellent sectors and the industry leaders has been verified to be stable, The improvement of free cash flow brought about by the decline of capital expenditure will be further confirmed. The listed companies will increase the dividend ratio as a whole, which will increase the expectation of A-share leading companies with outstanding performance to bring real returns to investors. They are still optimistic about the leading index of outstanding performance represented by CSI A50/CSI 300/market growth.

　　 "Considering the early performance, valuation, transaction activity, boom change, policy and event catalysis, it is recommended to focus on the leading industry segments in the consumption cycle field, and focus on household appliances, food and beverage, retail social services, nonferrous metals in the industry; in the field of science and technology, it is still recommended to focus on the electronic sector (consumer electronics, semiconductor), communications (communication equipment) and other sectors." The team analyzes.

Combining the policy orientation and economic situation, Wu Kaida's team of Tianfeng Securities believes that "industrial upgrading" and "development support" are the two main investment lines in 2024. Among them, in terms of industrial upgrading, the team believes that digital China and manufacturing power should be paid attention to, and in terms of development support, energy security and financial power should be paid attention to.

Among them, in the digital China sector, its proposal focuses on semiconductors, computers and media; In the manufacturing power sector, it is suggested to focus on automobiles, industrial machines and industries robot And consumer electronics. In addition, for energy security, it is suggested to focus on coal, nuclear power, photovoltaic and wind power; For the financial power sector, it is suggested to focus on securities companies and banks.

The Research Department of CICC also proposed the key focus direction, First, high dividend related fields. This opinion and supporting system are expected to guide listed companies to strengthen dividend distribution and improve dividend level and frequency. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the high dividend strategy, especially the relevant individual stocks with increased dividend paying ability or willingness margin (see the original report for suggestions). Second, securities companies and asset management leading companies. Relevant fields are expected to achieve high-quality development in the introduction of the new "National Nine Rules" and the construction of a financial power.

　　 Guotai Jun'an The non bank financial team also pointed out that the new "National Nine Rules" will strengthen supervision, promote the return of the securities fund industry to its roots, and support the head institutions to enhance their core competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, organizational innovation and other ways. It is expected that the industry integration is expected to accelerate, which will benefit the leading securities companies with professional ability and compliant operation.