Article | Global Finance Theory Wang Li
The deposit and loan business is the foundation of the establishment of the Chinese funded bank. Only when the intermediate business capability has not been really improved can the strong players in the deposit and loan business take the lead in the industry. This issue of Global Finance is analyzed from the perspective of A-share listed bank deposits.
In 2023, the total deposits of all listed banks will continue to grow. There are 20 banks whose growth rate can still be maintained at more than 10%, nearly half. The two city commercial banks with the highest growth rate are Bank of Ningbo and Bank of Chengdu, respectively. The lowest growth rate is Ping An Bank and Bank of Xiamen, respectively, with 2.86% and 1.32%. The growth rate of Bank of Xiamen is the lowest.
There are 7 banks whose deposit loan ratio exceeds 100%. Huaxia Bank has the highest deposit loan ratio of 108.43%, while Postal Savings Bank has the lowest deposit loan ratio of 58.39%. If the deposit loan ratio is too high, the risk may increase, and if it is too low, the efficiency will be too low.
In 2023, there will be no banks with a net interest margin of 3% among A-share listed banks, and the number of banks with a net interest margin of less than 2% will increase. In 2023, there will be only 10 banks with a net interest margin of more than 2%, including only one Chinese bank, three joint-stock banks, four urban commercial banks, and two agricultural commercial banks.
In 2023, the total deposits of the six major state-owned banks will be 133.61 trillion, up 12.02% year on year. In terms of ranking, the size of deposit volume and the size of total assets volume are the same. Both are led by ICBC, followed by ABC, and the bottom is Bank of Communications. However, there is a large gap between head and tail volume.
In general, the first four major banks are still in the forefront, with a large gap with the two state-owned banks that joined later. At the end of 2023, the total deposits of ICBC will be 32.99 trillion, and the total deposits of ABC and CCB will be similar, 28.44 trillion and 27.22 trillion respectively. BOC will go down to a new level, 22.6 trillion. Postal Savings Bank and Bank of Communications will be dumped a little far, and their total deposits at the end of 2023 will be 13.96 trillion and 8400 billion respectively.
From the perspective of deposit growth rate, Agricultural Bank of China has the highest growth rate, followed by Bank of China, with the growth rates of 14.96% and 13.35% respectively. The growth rates of Postal Savings Bank and Bank of Communications are still at the bottom, 9.76% and 7.23% respectively.
The size of the total deposit may be related to the distribution and sinking degree of the outlets of the six major banks. During the last round of share reform of state-owned banks, CCB Bank of China abolished many county branches. Of course, because of its past positioning, BOC mainly engaged in foreign exchange and other foreign businesses, and its domestic business was slightly weaker than the three major banks in industry and agriculture. However, the county branch of Agricultural Bank of China has not been abolished, and in recent years, it has provided a lot of assistance under the environment of intensified competition.
Bank of Communications used to belong to the queue of joint-stock banks and was later included in the ranks of state-owned banks, but it is still far from the title of "state-owned big bank" in essence, and belongs to the "little brother" of state-owned banks.
Postal Savings Bank is the sixth bank to be classified as a state-owned bank. Its historical development is relatively special, and it has a close relationship with China Post. To a large extent, it relies on the savings agency outlets of China Post to obtain deposits. The number of savings outlets of China Post is far ahead of the rest of the banks, obtaining a large number of low-cost deposits for postal savings banks, At the same time, the postal savings bank should also pay agency fees to these outlets.
These characteristics are reflected in the proportion of individual deposits and corporate deposits. According to WIND data, the personal deposits of Postal Savings Bank rank first among the six largest banks in the total deposits, up to 89.53%, and the corresponding corporate deposits account for only about 10%, which is a strange existence among the 42 listed banks. Obviously, this is closely related to its unique mode of collecting deposits. In addition, the bank entered the commercial bank track much later than the other five state-owned banks, and its corporate business has lagged behind.
The second largest bank in terms of personal deposits is Agricultural Bank of China, accounting for 60.2%, which is significantly higher than that of the old four major banks. Global Finance believes that this is related to the huge county network advantage that has not been abolished. In recent years, the competition for financial business in second tier cities has become increasingly fierce, third tier and fourth tier cities have become new commanding heights, and some joint-stock banks have begun to gradually have the characteristics of network sinking, Agricultural Bank of China has the first mover advantage.
Bank of Communications' personal deposits account for the lowest proportion of state-owned banks' deposits, less than 40%, but it is not difficult to understand.
Under the background of declining interest rates, the yield on interest bearing assets generally declined. In 2023, except for the year-on-year increase in the yield on interest bearing assets of BOC, the other five state-owned banks all declined; From the data of interest bearing asset return rate, Bank of Communications has the highest interest bearing asset return rate.
However, the cost ratio of interest bearing liabilities did not decline, but showed an overall upward trend. In 2023, except for the decline of the cost ratio of interest bearing liabilities of Postal Savings Bank, the rest of the state-owned banks will rise, and Bank of Communications has the highest cost ratio of interest bearing liabilities, reaching 2.45%.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that the net interest margin of the six state-owned banks has declined. The decline in yield and the rise in cost rate must be reflected in a decline as a whole. Because the cost rate of interest bearing liabilities has also declined, the net interest margin of Postal Savings Bank has not declined much, and the level remains above 2%, which is the only bank among the six major banks that still remains above 2%. Although the return on interest bearing assets of Bank of Communications is the highest among the six major banks, because the cost ratio of interest bearing liabilities is also the highest, the final transmission will affect the level of net interest margin and become the bottom of the six major banks.
Among joint-stock banks, China Merchants Bank has the strongest ability to collect deposits.
In terms of total deposits, by the end of 2023, China Merchants Bank had the highest total deposits, more than 8 trillion yuan. CITIC Bank, ranked second, had a gap of more than 200 billion yuan from China Merchants Bank. Since the fourth SPDB, the total deposits have all been below 5 trillion yuan.
However, from the perspective of total deposits, we can not conclude that CMB has the strongest ability to collect deposits. We also need to combine the yield on interest bearing assets, cost ratio of interest bearing liabilities, net interest margin and other indicators. From the perspective of yield on interest bearing assets, Ping An Bank is the highest and China Merchants Bank is the lowest, which indicates that China Merchants Bank gives more profits; From the perspective of interest bearing debt cost rate, Minsheng and Everbright are the highest, and CITIC Bank and China Merchants Bank are the lowest. Although China Merchants Bank has the lowest interest bearing debt cost rate, its deposit growth rate is not low, ranking third among joint-stock banks. Zhejiang Merchants Bank has the highest total deposit growth rate, followed by Industrial Bank. It is worth noting that the total deposit growth of Ping An Bank is the lowest among joint-stock banks, Only 2.86% increase. It can also be seen from this that the reason why CMB can achieve the lowest rate of return on interest bearing assets is because of the support of low-cost liabilities. Looking at the net interest margin data, the net interest margin level of China Merchants Bank ranks second among joint-stock banks.
In 2023, there will be only three joint-stock banks whose net interest margin remains above 2%, namely Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank and Zhejiang Merchants Bank. The net interest margin of Minsheng Bank was 1.46%, ranking the bottom of joint-stock banks. Ping An Bank has seen the largest decline in net interest margin.
Nowadays, urban commercial banks are a relatively large group of listed banks. There are 17 urban commercial banks listed, and they are also a group with the most uneven levels.
By the end of 2023, there will be only one Bank of Beijing with a total deposit of more than 2 trillion yuan, five banks with a total deposit of more than 1 trillion yuan, and other urban commercial banks with a total deposit of more than 200 billion yuan to more than 700 billion yuan.
From the analysis of the ability to collect deposits, Bank of Xiamen has the weakest ability to collect deposits among urban commercial banks.
From the perspective of total deposits, the total deposits of Bank of Xiamen will exceed 200 billion in 2023, ranking the last among urban commercial banks. The growth rate of total deposits is also the lowest, only 1.32% year-on-year. In the ranking of interest bearing asset return rate of urban commercial banks, Bank of Xiamen ranked the third from the bottom, but ranked the fifth in the ranking of interest bearing debt cost rate. Therefore, it is no accident that the net interest margin of Bank of Xiamen will be the lowest among urban commercial banks in 2023, only 1.28%. Among all listed banks, it is also the last one, ranking first in the last with Bank of Communications.
In terms of relative dependence on deposits, Lanzhou Bank has the highest dependence on personal deposits, accounting for nearly 70%, followed by Bank of Xi'an, accounting for 55.2%. Both of them belong to banks in the western region. Bank of Hangzhou has the highest dependence on corporate deposits, accounting for 74.95% in 2023, followed by Bank of Ningbo, which is close to 70%. On the whole, urban commercial banks in economically developed areas account for a higher proportion of corporate deposits, while urban commercial banks in economically weak areas account for a higher proportion of individual deposits.
The size of agricultural commercial banks is relatively small. In 2023, only Shanghai Agricultural Commercial Bank will have a total deposit of 1 trillion yuan, and there are 6 agricultural commercial banks between 100 billion yuan and 200 billion yuan.
However, the average growth rate of deposits of Rural Commercial Bank is the highest among all types of listed banks, and the average growth rate of total deposits of listed Rural Commercial Bank will reach 13.58% in 2023. There are 6 banks whose total deposits have increased by more than 10%, the highest growth rate is Ruifeng Bank, which is 16.6%, and the lowest growth rate is Qingnong Commercial Bank, which is 6.63%.
According to WIND data, among the Rural Commercial Banks, Ruifeng Bank, Wuxi Bank and Sunong Bank did not disclose the return on interest bearing assets and the cost ratio of interest bearing liabilities. Among the Rural Commercial Banks disclosed, Changshu Bank has the highest return on interest bearing assets, which is 5%, and it is also the only bank among all listed banks to reach the 5% level. The highest net interest margin is Changshu Bank, 2.86%, and the lowest is Zijin Bank, 1.59%.
Rural commercial banks generally rely on personal deposits. In 2023, the proportion of personal deposits will be more than 50%, the highest is Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, accounting for 83.37%, and the lowest is Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, accounting for 52.4%.
