On May 22, the recently launched 30-year super long term special treasury bonds were listed for trading. It is reported that the ultra long term special treasury bonds listed on May 22 are bookkeeping treasury bonds, which can be listed and circulated on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange or the bank's over-the-counter bond market within the duration.
In the morning of the same day, the "24 Special Countries 01" listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 25%, triggering a second temporary suspension, and resumed trading at 15:27. Before the second suspension, the quotation of "24 Special Countries 01" was 124.999 yuan, and the bond yield fell from 2.57% to 1.5276%. According to the previous report of the Financial Times, the competent media of the central bank, from the perspective of the normal operation of the market in recent years, 2.5% to 3% may be a reasonable range for the yield of long-term treasury bonds. In the last five minutes before the closing of the bond market of the Exchange, the price of "24 Teguo01" dropped sharply again, closing at 101.316 yuan, with a daily increase of only 1.32%, and the yield rebounded to 2.5070%.
At noon on the same day, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that "Teguo2401" had risen by more than 13%, and it was suspended in the session and resumed trading at 13:14. Before the suspension, the quotation of "Teguo2401" was 113.000 yuan, and the yield fell from 2.57% to 1.9919%. By the end of the afternoon, "Teguo2401" had continued to rise 19.70% to 119.700 yuan, and its yield had further dropped to 1.7256%.
It is worth noting that the inter-bank market, which is dominated by institutional investors, is relatively calm throughout the day. Wind data shows that as of press release, the latest transaction yield of "24 Special National Debt 01" broker quotation is 2.5700%, which is equal to the coupon rate.
Li Yong, chief analyst of Soochow Gushou, reminded that on May 22, the price of the exchange's ultra long term special treasury bonds once rose sharply, indicating that the risk appetite of investors in the exchange's bond market declined, but the large price fluctuations have deviated from the characteristics of stable bond yields, and investment risks need to be viewed rationally. Under this scenario, if the interest rate rises, investors may lose capital gains when they want to sell, and the coupon income cannot cover the losses.
In addition, the fixed income personage of the securities firm told the reporter that the participants in the exchange bond market are mainly individual investors and non bank institutions, and the scale is relatively small compared with the inter-bank market. This abnormal fluctuation is more like a small transaction volume affecting the price, which is the embodiment of the short-term supply and demand relationship.
Tian Lihui, president of the Financial Development Research Institute of Nankai University, said frankly that the price fluctuation on the first day is often a reflection of market participants' different perceptions of the issue pricing. The price of such investment products as ultra long term special treasury bonds will return to value relatively quickly, and generally there will be no sustained long-term sharp rise or fall.
Some insiders also suggested that market investors should pay attention to the interest rate risk of long-term bond investment, adhere to the prudent and rational investment concept, and prevent possible losses caused by too short-term investment behavior.
Bank counter sales once appeared "daylight"
Public information shows that the first 30-year super long term special treasury bonds were issued on May 17. They are fixed rate interest bearing bonds with a total amount of 40 billion yuan, and the coupon rate was determined to be 2.57% after competitive bidding by 56 financial institutions' underwriting groups.
Three days later, China Merchants Bank and Zhejiang Merchants Bank took the lead in opening up special treasury bond purchase channels for individual investors, and the purchase time is limited to the same day. On May 20, the sales lines of the two banks totaling 530 million yuan were exhausted as soon as they were sold. At the same time, on social media, many netizens showed their own subscription screenshots. Some netizens started with 160000 yuan and said that they intended to hold it until it was due, "charging 2000 yuan of interest every six months to reward themselves".
The reporter also noticed that the banks that have opened the purchase channels have also made restrictions on the risk tolerance level of special treasury bond investors. According to the news released by "Zheshang Bank WeChat" on May 17, the ultra long term special treasury bonds (Phase I) in 2024 will be purchased from 100 yuan at a risk level of R2, and will be issued from 10:00 to 15:30 on May 20. Customers can purchase them through the mobile banking app of Zheshang Bank. The customer service personnel of China Merchants Bank said that the risk level of the bond product was R3, the interest rate was 2.57%, the term was 30 years, and the interest was paid every six months. After purchase, it cannot be cashed in advance, but it can be transacted.
So is the 30-year super long term special bond worth buying? A financial manager of a joint-stock bank in Beijing Sanyuanqiao region told reporters that it depends on the willingness of investors to hold for a long time, their ability to judge the market, and whether there are alternative investment targets with higher returns.
She pointed out to the reporter that the holding period of the current treasury bond is as long as 30 years. If customers are anxious to cash in and can only trade in the secondary market, they will face the risk of price fluctuation. When selling, they may make profits or losses. If the investor intends to hold to maturity, the customer can get coupon interest every half a year. After the holding to maturity, the principal will be cashed. During this period, no matter how the bond price fluctuates, the principal will be cashed according to the coupon value after maturity. "If investors can accept coupon rates and are willing to hold them for a long time, they can consider investing in ultra long term special treasury bonds. Compared with three-year or five-year fixed deposits, this product can lock interest rates for a longer period."
During the interview, several experts pointed out the price fluctuation risk of ultra long term special treasury bonds. For example, Zhou Yiqin, a senior financial policy expert, told reporters that because of the long duration of this ultra long term special national debt, the fluctuation of bond price is directly linked to the duration, and the fluctuation of market interest rate will have a greater impact on the bond price, so for individual investors who are not ready to hold to maturity but to obtain capital gains, Must have considerable investment experience and certain risk bearing capacity.
The Ministry of Finance recently released a question and answer about individual investors' purchase of government bonds, which also shows that the transaction price of book entry government bonds fluctuates with the market situation. After buying, investors may gain trading gains due to rising prices, or face the risk of loss due to falling prices. Therefore, individual investors of book entry treasury bonds who do not aim at holding maturity but at trading profit should have certain investment experience and risk bearing capacity.
In addition, Li Yong reminded that investors should also consider liquidity and transaction costs when choosing investment channels for ultra long term special treasury bonds. The application and redemption of wealth management products or monetary funds are convenient, the rate is very low, and the liquidity problem is not serious. In contrast, the over-the-counter bond market also has a certain degree of liquidity and supports trading at any time, but individual investors may need to bear more transaction costs.
Bookkeeping national debt is different from savings national debt
The reporter learned that the types of treasury bonds that investors contact mainly include savings bonds and bookkeeping bonds. Bookkeeping treasury bonds can be traded in the inter-bank bond market, the exchange bond market and the commercial bank counter bond market. The latter two markets are open to individual investors. At the same time, individual investors can also indirectly participate in treasury bond investment by subscribing for treasury bond ETF and other asset management products. Since this year, the average annual yield of Shanghai bond ETF has reached 7.48%, of which the annual yield of 30-year treasury bond ETF has reached 17.84%.
The Ministry of Finance said in the question and answer on individual investors' purchase of government bonds released on May 17 that the ultra long term special government bonds issued this year are bookkeeping government bonds, which have three maturities of 20 years, 30 years and 50 years. The specific purchase operation is handled according to the bookkeeping government bond purchase process. The book entry treasury bonds are mainly issued to institutional investors in the primary market through the book entry treasury bond underwriting syndicate, and the creditor's rights are recorded in the central clearing company by electronic bookkeeping. After listing, individual investors can also buy from institutional investors in the secondary market.
Specifically, individual investors can open personal bond accounts and capital accounts and open book entry treasury bond trading business through any outlet counter, online banking or mobile banking of the counter business establishment of the national inter-bank bond market in advance when they purchase book entry treasury bonds; You can also open an ordinary A-share securities account and a capital account in a securities company in advance.
The counter service provider of the national inter-bank bond market independently selects certain types of bonds for investors to purchase according to market demand, and individual investors can purchase them through their outlet counters, online banking or mobile banking. Individual investors can purchase the book entry treasury bonds listed and traded in the stock exchange through the outlets of securities companies or APP of securities companies.
In terms of investment risk, Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Securities and Futures Research Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics, reminded that ordinary individual investors face two major risks when buying ultra long term special treasury bonds. First, the possible inflation in the future will reduce the actual return on investment in ultra long term special treasury bonds; Second, ordinary investors who buy ultra long term special treasury bonds generally do not hold them to maturity, which may face market risks, that is, they may not be able to obtain an ideal price when transferring.
Yang Haiping said frankly that the management of the above two risks requires certain professional knowledge and risk tolerance. Super long term special treasury bonds may not be suitable for all ordinary individual investors, so investor appropriateness management is required. This is also the reason why banks conduct risk assessment on investors and have certain requirements for risk rating.
On the whole, the issuance rhythm of ultra long term special treasury bonds is relatively slow. According to the issuance arrangement previously announced by the Ministry of Finance, this year's proposed issuance of ultra long term special treasury bonds is 20 years, 30 years, and 50 years, divided into 22 issues, the first issue was on May 17, and the issuance was completed in the middle of November. The interest payment method is half a year. The latest issue is the 2024 ultra long term special national debt (Phase II) (20-year), which will be subject to competitive bidding from 10:35 a.m. to 11:35 a.m. on May 24, with a total face value of 40 billion yuan.
(Author: Tang Jing, Editor: Zhang Huaxi)
