Although it is rare for aircraft to encounter severe turbulence, such accidents can also be fatal.
On the 21st, a Singapore Airlines passenger plane flying from London, England to Singapore landed in Bangkok, Thailand, because of turbulence (severe turbulence). So far, two people have died. It is reported that one 73 year old British male passenger died of heart disease.
▲ SIA passenger aircraft information map In recent years, the number of people injured by turbulence during flight is increasing. Climate change may make turbulence a bigger problem in the future. Some studies show that the number of turbulence phenomena in some parts of the world has begun to rise. A British team predicted that severe turbulence might double or triple in the coming decades.
Aircraft due to turbulence
How rare is it to cause casualties?
According to the data of the National Transportation Safety Commission, more than one-third of all aviation accidents in the United States between 2009 and 2018 were related to turbulence. Most of these accidents caused serious injuries to one or more people, although the aircraft itself was not damaged. From 2009 to 2022, a total of 163 people were seriously injured in turbulence events, most of whom were flight attendants. They left their seats to perform tasks in flight, so they faced higher risks.
Larry Koeman, a project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research of the National Science Foundation of the United States, has studied turbulence for a long time. He said: "It is not uncommon for turbulence to cause minor injuries or even fractures, but death events are still very rare, especially for large passenger aircraft."
Stuart Fox, Director of Flight and Technical Operations of the International Air Transport Association, said that the last death related to clear air turbulence reported by a large airline occurred in 1997 on a United Airlines flight from Tokyo to Honolulu.
Although several small aircraft deaths have occurred since then, Fox stressed that the implementation of standardized safety procedures over the years has greatly prevented serious injuries. These procedures include reviewing the weather forecast, requiring pilots to report when encountering turbulence, and suspending cabin services when the aircraft encounters severe weather.
climate change
Will it make things worse?
Paul Williams, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading, said in a statement recently that "there is strong evidence that turbulence is increasing due to climate change."
The research team found that the clear air turbulence in the North Atlantic increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020 due to the change of wind speed in high altitude areas. The latest forecast shows that if global warming continues as expected, severe turbulence may double or triple in the coming decades.
Other research in the journal Nature Climate Change shows that climate change is distorting the jet stream, making strong winds in the upper atmosphere faster. Tiffany Shaw, a professor of geophysics at the University of Chicago, said, "Based on these research results and our current understanding, record breaking gale weather is expected in the future. They are likely to lead to reduced flight time, increased clear sky turbulence, and the possibility of bad weather."
However, not everyone believes that climate change will make flights more turbulent. Koeman said that although there is "some truth" in the connection between turbulence and global warming, he is still skeptical of those studies that claim that the impact does exist. "The most common source of turbulence reports is from pilots, but these data are not so good and very subjective."
Turbulence is essentially an unstable air flow, and its motion mode is difficult to predict. Among them, the most dangerous is clear sky turbulence, because it usually occurs without any weather warning, which will surprise pilots.
Although turbulence is difficult to predict, experts emphasized that the first line of defense to maintain safety in the air is to always wear a seat belt when possible. "Although no preventive measures are foolproof, wearing a seat belt can greatly improve the probability of avoiding serious injuries."
Red Star Journalist Wang Yalin Intern Gold
Edited by He Xianfeng and Edited by Feng Lingling
