After the launch of Tesla FSD V12, several car owners reported that the ability of FSD V12 was "like people driving". The dawn of automatic driving scale is beginning to appear.
At the same time, Tesla turned to AI in an all-round way, the Robotaxi project was raised to the highest priority, and many other key projects were abolished, and a large number of executives left, which also caused a great stir in the industry.
Musk said that he would release driverless taxis on August 8 this year, and planned to invest 10 billion dollars in purchasing GPUs, developing car chips, and further improving its automatic driving system.
Tesla's strong bet once again ignited the enthusiasm of the industry.
On the other hand, in the domestic market, policies are also promoting automatic driving to be on the right track.
At the end of last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, and the Ministry of Transport officially issued the Notice on Carrying out Pilot Work for the Access and Road Access of Intelligent Connected Vehicles, promoting the access of high-level autonomous vehicles, and many car enterprises obtained licenses and started testing.
The deployment of high-level autonomous vehicles, starting from refitted test vehicles to front loaded mass production models, is undoubtedly a qualitative breakthrough for the entire autonomous driving industry.
In sharp contrast, at the end of 2023, Cruise's license was finally suspended due to frequent accidents after its Robotaxi was opened to operation. As a result, the industry has fallen into a low ebb, and public opinion has constantly questioned automatic driving.
So, from today's development, is the automatic driving technology mature? Is the large-scale implementation of Robotaxi possible? Will Cruise's experience be repeated?
Is autonomous driving trustworthy?
After the Cruise incident, Waymo released a safety report in December.
The report shows that as of October, Waymo has provided 700000 passenger carrying services in 2023, and has driven 7.14 million miles in the United States, with only three accidents causing minor injuries. Based on these data, the number of accidents per million miles of Waymo driverless taxis is 0.42, while the number of accidents per million miles of human drivers is 2.78.
From the data, the accident rate of Waymo autonomous vehicles is lower than that of people driving.
An operator familiar with automatic driving companies in China and the United States is working with Lei Feng.com (Official account: Lei Fengwang) New Smart Drive said in an interview, "From the two representatives of the United States, Waymo's performance is indeed better than Cruise's."
In fact, technically speaking, the Cruise event does not represent the entire industry.
The R&D personnel of an autonomous driving company said to New Smart Drive that many Corner Cases that were considered difficult to solve in the past can be solved through optimization at the perception level today.
Another person in the industry also said to Leifeng New Smart Drive that within the scope of ODD, the current automatic driving technology has been able to achieve more safety than human driving.
From a normative point of view, there are also corresponding certification procedures in the world.
In June 2023, Wenyuan Zhixing officially passed the ASIL-D process certification of ISO 26262:2018 road vehicle functional safety, which shows that Wenyuan Zhixing has won international authoritative recognition in the construction of vehicle network safety and vehicle functional safety system, and is a milestone in promoting the large-scale and mass production implementation of automatic driving technology.
Many practitioners believe that at the current stage, the most difficult part of autonomous driving is actually the interaction between autonomous vehicles and other road users.
In Waymo's three accidents, two were hit passively by the rear car when braking, and one was hit when accelerating to avoid other vehicles.
Wu Zhengming, Deputy Director of the Operation Center of Guangzhou Intelligent Connected Vehicle Demonstration Zone, said that when autonomous vehicles and social vehicles operate together, it is not only a technical problem, but also a problem of how unmanned vehicles and existing traffic participants can complete the distribution of road rights in a friendly, safe and green way, as well as cooperation. This can not be solved by the autonomous driving technology alone, nor can it be solved by an autonomous driving company.
In this part, government supervision is needed.
With regard to the Cruise accident, Zhu Xishan, a professor at the School of Automotive Technology of Tongji University and the director of the Institute of Automotive Safety Technology, believes that the California government of the United States has approved the unrestricted operation of Robotaxi by voting, which is an innovation in government management, and the support of the U.S. government for technological innovation is worthy of admiration. However, from the perspective of accident rate, the unconditional operation is too hasty, and China should not follow suit.
Wu Zhengming also believes that the management style of the California government is rough. Compared with that, the domestic policy management will be more refined, which can achieve more stability and order, and can also avoid some social problems.
The automatic driving technology has reached a certain maturity, but the deregulation of operation still requires policy supervision.
The latest message shows that Cruise will restart the automated vehicle test.
China has a strict test process for automatic driving
The domestic automatic driving industry has had strict and sophisticated management measures since the testing stage.
According to New Smart Drive, different cities in China have different requirements on the issuance of test license plates, but on the whole, it can be summarized as follows. First, the vehicle should pass the test in the closed test field and get the test report. Second, the automatic driving vehicle should reach a certain number of automatic driving test mileage. Third, safety insurance should be provided for vehicles.
This is an endorsement of the self driving vehicle's own technical ability and the operator's ability to assume responsibility.
In terms of specific management, each city also has different requirements.
Taking Guangzhou as an example, Guangzhou has classified the open roads into one, two and three levels. According to the traffic risk, the first level is the lowest, the second level is the second, and the third level is the highest.
According to the road classification, Guangzhou has six levels of permission for the driving area of ICVs, and vehicles need to meet the corresponding requirements to gradually enter an area with a higher risk level. For example, Class I vehicles can only drive on Class I roads, and can only drive on Class II and III roads after obtaining Class II and III license plates.
This is a gradual process. Enterprises need to gradually accumulate technical capabilities and experience to further develop more complete test areas.
Since the end of 2018, Guangzhou has issued test licenses for 415 autonomous vehicles to 15 test subjects. Up to now, more than 300 of them have been upgraded to Class III roads, 285 to passenger carrying tests, 60 to remote tests (i.e. unmanned tests in other cities), and 22 to unmanned passenger carrying test permits.
Licensing in other cities is also a process of gradual liberalization.
Beijing was the first to publish regulations on open road test and rating of autonomous driving test vehicles, and began to issue test licenses in 2018. By 2023, Beijing will have opened pilot licenses for the commercialization of in car automated driving services for autonomous driving enterprises including Wenyuan Zhixing, Baidu Apollo, Xiaoma Zhixing, etc.
For different enterprises, the automatic driving test in different cities also needs to be started gradually according to local regulations.
Taking Wen Yuanzhi as an example, in 2019, Wen Yuan won the first batch of test licenses in Guangzhou. Get remote test license in 2020. In October 2022, Wenyuan was granted the unmanned road test permit in the policy pilot area of Beijing Intelligent Connected Vehicles. In June 2023, it obtained the demonstration application license for the remote stage of unmanned vehicle, and in November, it was approved to carry out the charging service for unmanned automatic driving in vehicles in Yizhuang, Beijing.
In February 2024, Wen Yuanzhixing was approved to carry out Robotaxi high-speed manned demonstration application in Beijing, which is the first high-speed road automated manned demonstration activity to the public under the open road scenario in Beijing.
At the same time, Wenyuan's minibus is also gradually opening the automatic driving minibus charging operation business.
From the test and operation progress of Wenyuan, the domestic automatic driving has developed to a higher degree. At the same time, under such refined and progressive management, it is difficult for the domestic automatic driving industry to have accidents like Cruise.
On the other hand, in 2024, policy support for automated driving test operations is also further expanding.
In February, the 3.0 expansion project of Beijing High level Automatic Driving Demonstration Zone was launched in Tongzhou District, and the entire automatic driving demonstration zone will be expanded to 600 square kilometers. In addition, 5 railway stations and 2 airports in Beijing will also open automatic driving connections.
However, many problems encountered by Cruise after opening up its operations are being gradually solved through pilot projects in China.
Guangzhou is the first city in China to carry out mixed traffic pilot.
Wu Zhengming believes that with the popularization of automatic driving technology, the number of automatic driving vehicles is gradually increasing. In this process, when automatic driving vehicles and social traffic flow are mixed, they will inevitably form different mixed traffic ratios. Under different mixed traffic ratios, will autonomous vehicles have a negative impact on social traffic? If there are negative impacts, how should the industry and the government respond?
Guangzhou's plan is based on the advantages of test vehicles and test enterprises to reproduce the mixed traffic ratio from 0 to 50% on the road, to see whether there is a mixed traffic ratio point that will lead to traffic congestion. If so, how should the government propose effective measures from the management side to balance or reduce its negative impact.
This is a process of scenario reappearance, problem refinement, gradual problem solving, and deregulation, which is also the advantage of the development of the domestic automatic driving industry.
Automatic driving in China is on the eve of large-scale application
For domestic autonomous driving enterprises, the greater benefit comes from the promotion of policies on the industry.
On November 17, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, and the Ministry of Transport officially issued the Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work for the Access and Road Access of Intelligent Connected Vehicles, opening the access pilot for L3 level autonomous vehicles.
On December 5, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport printed and distributed the Guidelines for Safety Service of Self driving Vehicle Transportation (Trial), which put forward specific requirements on how to ensure the safety of self driving vehicle transportation.
A person in the industry said to New Smart Drive that the previous autonomous driving vehicles were all used in the test area, and the release of the Notice was a clear signal for the commercialization of autonomous driving from the national level, including the access of vehicles.
Previously, the vehicles used for automatic driving test were mainly refitted vehicles, while the main body of the Notice was the main engine plant, which included automatic driving vehicles into the category of mass production vehicles.
At present, vehicles with L3 level automatic driving capability are the main ones to open the pilot access. However, according to industry insiders who have a deep understanding of the policy, the first pilot of L3 level vehicles can also explore a clear path for the road access of L4 level autonomous vehicles.
When designing L4 class vehicles, enterprises may not have steering wheel, foot pedal, brake and other components, and cannot apply for the directory of Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprises and Product Access issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China under today's regulatory conditions. The issuance of the Notice is to explore a feasible way for such vehicles to have official license plates and to be registered and managed in accordance with official motor vehicle registration methods.
"This industry is a long-term investment, which requires vehicles to be able to get on the road legally. At present, vehicles in many regions have temporary license plates for testing. The issuance of the Notice can help us to have a complete legal procedure in the future in terms of exploring vehicles and license plates."
People in the industry believe that the Notice can be regarded as the beginning of the country bringing autonomous vehicles into formal management.
At present, many domestic engine manufacturers and intelligent driving solution companies have started the mass production of high-level automatic driving, and L3's automatic driving solution is also in the process of research and development.
For example, the first high-level intelligent driving project cooperated by Wen Yuanzhixing and Bosch has successfully mass produced and delivered high-speed navigation assistance, and the Chery Star Star Century ES, L3 level project is also in progress in the form of OTA.
This is the intersection of policy and technological development. Policy is not only the promotion of technology, but also the guarantee of its development.
From the perspective of regulations, the Notice puts forward specific requirements on how to start the pilot of high-level autonomous vehicles and how to ensure the safety of the pilot.
For example, the cities where the vehicles are to be operated and the enterprises entering the pilot area need to meet the corresponding requirements. At the same time, the pilot subjects also need to purchase motor vehicle related insurance for vehicles on the road.
In addition, a clear attribution of rights and responsibilities is also a necessary condition for autonomous vehicles to truly realize large-scale road use. The Notice stipulates that when a traffic accident occurs under the automatic driving state, vehicle enterprises and system manufacturers can be required to bear corresponding responsibilities according to the accident judgment.
The Safe Transportation Guide is to implement the safe operation criteria and put forward clear requirements for application scenarios, automatic driving transport operators, transport vehicles, staffing, safety assurance, supervision and management, etc.
Industry insiders believe that in order to truly realize the commercialization of automatic driving, three conditions need to be met, namely, global, mass production, and unmanned.
The Safe Transport Guide clearly stipulates that fully autonomous vehicles engaged in taxi passenger transport can use remote security officers when operating in the designated area with the consent of the people's government of the city divided into districts on the premise of ensuring safety, and the ratio of remote security officers to vehicles shall not be less than 1:3. This has created conditions for autonomous vehicles to start fully unmanned operation from the legislative level.
The Notice is prepared for the mass production and scale of vehicles.
In addition, the above industry insiders believe that the Notice is also providing exploration for the next revision of higher level road traffic laws. The improvement of the regulatory and policy system will pave the way for the large-scale promotion and use of automatic driving.
Wu Zhengming believes that the current policy rhythm is similar to that when the country promoted the development of new energy vehicles. First, pilot projects were launched to promote the landing of autonomous vehicles in the field of buses and taxis. According to the problems found in the pilot operation process, the OEMs continue to improve their product strength, improve their products, and finally realize the landing of mass consumers.
Since the country launched the pilot project of new energy vehicles in 2009, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 40% in more than ten years. Wu Zhengming believes that although the development of intelligence may be more complex than that of new energy, the overall pace of the industry is clear.
The development of enterprises depends on the industry, and the prospect of the industry is obviously affected by the policy. Especially in the domestic market, if the policy is good, the development prospect of the industry is usually clear. China's automatic driving industry and the players who insist on investment in this industry are standing on the eve of large-scale application.
