The Iranian government may not have prepared more options to deal with sudden changes in the future transition arrangements of state power. Leahy's accidental death will put the Iranian government in a passive situation
□ Author Han Jianwei (Associate Professor, Middle East Research Institute, Shanghai International Studies University)
On May 19, the helicopter of President Lehi of Iran crashed in the northwest East Azerbaijan Province, killing Lehi. Many senior officials and crew members including Iran's Foreign Minister Abdullahian and the Governor of East Azerbaijan Province Lakhmati, who accompanied Lehi's team, were also killed in the accident. Leahy was universal As the successor of the current supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his sudden death may have complex impacts on Iran at domestic, regional and international levels.
↑ Leahy In 2021, Leahy was elected President of Iran. Different from previous presidents, Lehi is a loyal follower of Khamenei, strongly supported by conservative religious elites and supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Therefore, after Leahy came to power, there was a rare situation of religious forces with the highest leader at the core, the military and democratically elected institutions living in harmony in Iran's political arena, which also made Iran's internal affairs and diplomacy more conservative.
According to the experience of previous presidential elections in Iran, ordinary presidents can be re elected for the second term after the end of the first term. In fact, Leahy is also believed to continue to serve as the second president. Therefore, the Iranian government may not have prepared more options to deal with sudden changes in the future transition arrangements of state power. Leahy's accidental death will put the Iranian government in a passive situation.
At present, the Iranian government has authorized the First Vice President Mukhber to temporarily take over the government in accordance with the Constitution; According to the Constitution, Iran must also hold a presidential election within 50 days. This means that the presidential election plan for next year is advanced to this year, and it is necessary to find a person with enough prestige and ability to serve as the new president within the framework of the existing government. This may be the biggest challenge to the Iranian government at present.
From the perspective of factional game, so far the reformers and moderate conservatives have declined, and it is difficult to form independent forces and express their views in government departments. The hardline conservatives have basically formed comprehensive control over administration, justice and the military. In the case of unclear future situation in Iran, the Supreme Leader Khamenei is bound to continue to rely on hard line conservatives to maintain order out of the need for national control and stability. Therefore, the candidate for Iran's new president will probably be elected from the hard line conservatives in the future.
However, whether the hard line conservatives can continue to maintain political stability depends not only on the power arrangement of the upper elites, but also on the acceptance of the people. In the past few years, the Iranian people have lost confidence in the government due to economic and people's livelihood issues. Therefore, it is necessary to further observe how a new hard line conservative figure will lead to the reaction of the people when he comes to power.
Leahy's unexpected death will also have a major impact on the regional situation. For some time in the past, the confrontation between Iran and Israel was seen as a manifestation of the spillover of the Palestinian Israeli conflict. After Leahy's death, the Iranian government was forced to shift its focus and attention to the new presidential election, which may reduce its attack on Israel. This change will have a greater impact on the situation in the Middle East.
and At the international level, the Iranian government hopes to continue to maintain its diplomatic stability, and presumably will not change significantly due to the accidental death of Leahy. At the level of US Iran relations, the United States and Iran are currently engaged in active negotiations on the nuclear issue, which is regarded by the Iranian government as a core interest and major concern. Iran has appointed Ali Bageri, the Deputy Foreign Minister who participated in the nuclear negotiations, as the Acting Foreign Minister, whose main purpose should be to ensure that the nuclear negotiations will not be affected. In addition, Iran will continue to improve its relations with Saudi Arabia and other neighboring countries. The reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is regarded as an important diplomatic legacy during the Reich administration. In the post Reich era, the Iranian government will also further expand the space for improving relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. In addition, in terms of relations with Russia, China, India and other major countries, the Iranian government should continue the policy of Leahy's administration and use multilateral balanced diplomacy to resolve Iran's isolation.
(This article is the author's personal view and does not represent the media's position)
Editor Zhao Yu
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