[Observations on Sci Tech] After 2022, the household appliance market will gradually recover in 2023. Ding Keji noticed that some listed household appliance companies have released quarterly performance forecasts recently. From the forecasts, we can see that both the large household appliance sector and the small household appliance sector are showing a trend of callback.
According to the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2023 released by Hisense Home Appliances, the company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 530 million yuan to 630 million yuan in the first quarter of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 100.0% to 135.0%, and a net profit excluding non attributable to the parent company of 430 million yuan to 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.0% to 185.0%.
If the performance forecast of Hisense Appliances is excellent enough, the performance forecast of Changhong Meiling is even more "exaggerated". The first quarter performance forecast disclosed by Changhong Meiling shows that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be 105 million to 135 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1939.79% – 2522.58%.
In the small household appliances sector, the first quarter performance forecast of Xiaoxiong Electric shows that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be 151 million yuan - 171 million yuan, up 45% - 65% year on year.
It can be seen that the above listed household appliances companies all delivered high growth performance in the first quarter of this year, and their net profits maintained a growth trend of more than 50%. According to the analysis, the growth of Hisense Appliances and Xiaoxiong Appliances is relatively "reasonable", while Changhong Meiling's net profit increased by more than 19 times in advance, most of which is due to the low base in the first quarter of 2022. In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to the parent company was only 5.14 million, while the net profit deducted from non profits was even negative 22.55 million.
In any case, the performance of household appliance listed companies in the first quarter changed the impression of "not making money" in the household appliance industry to a large extent. So, why did the household appliance industry start to recover this year?
According to the observation of Ding Keji. com, there is a common reason why the profits of household appliance enterprises have been significantly reduced, that is, the price of bulk raw materials and logistics costs have declined, which has eased the operating pressure of household appliance enterprises.
Data shows that by the end of March, copper/aluminum prices had dropped by - 15.3% and - 58.5% respectively from the peak in 2022, and sea freight prices were also close to the pre epidemic level. In addition, since 2022, the average price of large and small household appliances has remained firm, which means that the main enterprises have more profit space after the cost downward exploration.
Of course, the partial recovery of demand is also an important reason for the better operation of household appliance enterprises. According to Ovi Cloud, in the first quarter of 2023, the sales volume of the washing machine market was 14.32 billion yuan, down 2.1% year on year, and the sales volume of the refrigerator market was 19.8 billion yuan, up 3.3% year on year; The sales volume of air conditioning market was 40 billion yuan, up 9.8% year on year. As the largest category in the clean electrical appliance sector, the omni channel sales volume of the floor washer in the first quarter of 2023 was 2.26 billion yuan, up 43.4% year on year; The sales volume was 829000, up 62.3% year on year.
In addition, some categories are still declining. In the first quarter, the sales volume of the kitchen heat market was 27 billion yuan, down 2.3% year on year; The retail sales of small kitchen appliances were 14.46 billion yuan, down 8.0% year on year. It can be seen that although these two plates are still declining, the overall decline is not large and they are in the process of repair.
In the post epidemic period, economic activities tended to be normal, which stimulated the callback of consumption to a certain extent; At the same time, the household appliance industry gained positive operating results in the first quarter, adding to the positive effects of the downward trend in raw material prices. However, it should be noted that many household appliances are still in the development stage of the stock market. Some categories have large capacity expansion, more brands have entered, and the price of raw materials has declined. There is a possibility of price war in the industry. In addition, the export market is facing fluctuating pressure, and overseas demand is likely to fall in shock. All these factors will affect the trend of the household appliances industry after the first quarter. (Originated by Ding Kejie.com and reproduced by Ding Kejie.com, please indicate the source: Ding Kejie.com)
