Recently, I tried to answer a question, thinking back to the original, what should be the goal and historical mission of 6G?
There are many descriptions about the 6G vision, ITU IMT-2030 framework proposal, and white papers of various organizations and companies. Here, we will change our perspective and think from the perspective of consumers.
So far, the main and largest customer group of mobile communication is still 2C users, and the cognition and experience of ordinary consumers on mobile communication come from mobile terminals. So in order to answer this question better, we need to start with mobile communication terminals.
1、 Terminal is the decisive factor for the success of mobile communication in past generations
Reviewing the development process of mobile communication again, a good terminal type is the key to the success of all generations of mobile communication systems. Facing the consumer market, judging the quality of a terminal form from the results, there are two indicators: Penetration rate (referred to as penetration rate), usage scenario and duration (referred to as usage rate). Around 2000, large-scale integrated circuits developed and popularized rapidly. Chips and digitization made the second-generation functional mobile phones thin, solid and cheap. The popularity of mobile phones increased rapidly. In addition to voice messages, the use scenarios and duration also continued to expand. Functional mobile phones have led to the success of 2G network, and 3G network can also take advantage of the old cost. In the later stage, the functions of display and control of functional mobile phones have gradually improved, and new functions such as color screen and stylus have emerged, fostering the initial demand for mobile phone Internet access.
In 2007, the smart phone with cross era significance of touch screen interaction+high-performance computing appeared. Although the cost of the smart phone has increased compared with the functional phone, it is acceptable. When the battery is used, it can also be used normally for about 10 hours. Finally, compared with the functional phone, the popularity of the smart phone has further improved. At the same time, due to the qualitative leap in smart phone user experience and functions, terminals and other networks have emerged in the early stage of 4G. After 4G's commercial use, smart phones+mobile broadband connections have driven the rapid development of mobile Internet applications. The use scenarios have been greatly expanded, and the utilization rate, especially the daily use time, has been significantly improved, The latest statistics show that the average daily use time of smartphone users exceeds 8 hours. The high penetration rate and usage rate of smart phones have driven the success of 4G network, and 5G network is also a good source of income, which has gradually led to the demand for better audio-visual experience.
II In the 6G phase, if the personal mobile terminal with high penetration rate and high utilization rate still only has smart phones, do you need to do 6G?
From the birth of smart phones in 2007 to the present, there is no fundamental change in the essence of smart phone touch screen interaction+computing power, so it is still called smart phones. However, smart phones have been making continuous progress and development, so before answering this question, it is advisable to make a bold guess about the future development space of 6G smart phones:
Basically, more methods are added on the basis of touch screen interaction of 6G smart phones; High performance computing develops according to the law of industrial progress, plus AI and large models;
The appearance can be folded, even rolled, and rolled into a ball;
Interaction mode can add voice, gesture action, expression, and even simple brain machine, but the input display (output) is still dominant;
High performance computing, AI and large models are gradually infiltrated through mobile phones to solve more scenarios in work and life;
Mobile phones will become one of the most important ways to carry virtual digital people/digital avatars;
Mobile phones have become personal digital centers, linking with more peripheral devices, including watches, glasses, large screens, homes, smart cars, robots, etc., so as to penetrate more application scenarios. But if these enhancements are not just needed, they are icing on the cake, so they are a process of slow development and popularization. For manufacturers, these functions are not ineffective, and they do not bring significant epoch-making experience changes to users.
Is 6G necessary for the above functions and capabilities of future mobile phones? Can 5G-A be satisfied? From the perspective of communication, the user experience rate of 5G-A is more than 100Mbps, which is enough to support the evolution of the above functions. From the perspective of communication capability enhancement, the driving force is not enough.
All kinds of AI and large models are also supported by mobile phone local and cloud intelligence. At present, the large model of 7B can be run locally, while the larger model reasoning scenarios often deal with complex problems, and generally have no high real-time requirements. The rendering and driving of virtual digital human can also be completed locally, while the more powerful features and intelligence can be driven mainly in the cloud. Therefore, the demand of smart phones for beyond communication capabilities such as computing power and synaesthesia provided by the network is not very clear.
Therefore, from my personal point of view, objectively speaking, if after 2030, the mobile terminal with high penetration rate is still only a smart phone, from the perspective of 2C, the power to develop 6G is not enough.
3、 After 2030, what new forms of terminals have the potential to be similar to mobile phones and achieve similar penetration and utilization rates ？
Three types of products with room for development and imagination are listed first. The reason is that if these products reach the ideal state and use experience, they will have high user penetration and usage rates of similar magnitude to mobile phones, and the total market size can exceed mobile phones.
AR/VR/MR and other XR terminals
Similar to smart phones, XR glasses are portable and mobile. At the same time, XR terminals have more advantages than mobile phones:
Release both hands. When interacting with numbers or the physical world, both hands can be released, so that there are more use scenarios and durations. Private large screen, XR close eye closed display, only I can see the content. Immersive experience adopts advanced near eye optical display to achieve three-dimensional and immersive experience effect with lower power consumption. In terms of rich spatial interaction functions, display and output, MR can mix and stack digital content on the basis of real space, and can construct a closed virtual space. In terms of input control, it can integrate expression, action, gesture, voice and other ways, flexible and close to natural interaction. The ideal XR product should be "You can't feel it, but it's always there when you need it" , that is, the product is light enough to be almost insensitive. However, it is strong enough in interactive experience, immersive audio-visual effects and intelligence. It can always understand people's intentions and needs based on scenes and simple manipulation, and provide people with the content and help they need.
Therefore, the ideal XR product has leapfrog innovation in use experience and application scenarios compared with mobile phones. If the price is equal to that of mobile phones, then the penetration rate will be close to that of mobile phones, and the use scenarios and duration will even exceed that of smart phones. The ideal XR product is expected to become the next mobile intelligent terminal of similar size after the mobile phone, and its popularization will also bring about the upgrading of content and services, which is very promising to drive the 6G network capacity and traffic. People are willing to wear such glasses around the clock, so an ideal XR needs a cellular broadband direct connection in mobile scenes; In order to be thin enough and powerful enough, a large number of calculations and AI need to be unloaded to the 6G network to meet the demand for low latency; In order to understand the scenarios and intentions, it is also necessary for 6G to provide a wider range of environment awareness and construction. What is the gap between the current XR product and the ideal XR product? What technologies need to be overcome to achieve the above project status. The Vision Pro recently released by Apple has reached an excellent state in terms of control and audio-visual experience, while the weight of similar popular AR glasses on the market has been less than 100g (for example, the Xreal Air 2 is 79g), but these products can not work independently on a single machine at present, and need to be driven by an additional host (mobile phone or computer), It is not directly connected to the cellular network and is used in outdoor scenarios. In addition, there is still room for further improvement in the intelligent scene and intention judgment of the above devices. If the XR product is within 100g and the Vision Pro controls the audio-visual experience, plus the cellular direct connection, it can work alone without connecting the mobile phone and the computer, then the ideal state is basically achieved. Behind it, we need to overcome the improvement of low power consumption and efficient memory computing of more than 100, the improvement of battery density, the improvement of display technology, the improvement of sensing technology, the overall design, the continuous humanization of space manipulation, the improvement of AI capability, low power consumption, medium and high speed communication, and the empowerment of 6G network synaesthesia computing.
Multi functional humanoid robot
If the household oriented humanoid robot can help complete more than 90% of the daily chores (washing, shopping, cooking, cleaning, serving tea and water, etc.), can take care of the elderly and children with temperature, can talk with people naturally, and can control the price at 100000 yuan, which is equivalent to ordinary family passenger cars, It can be predicted that the household penetration rate will also reach the level of family cars. In addition, robots with such a level of capability exceed automobiles in the application fields of vertical industries, such as robot factories, robot field operations, robot security, etc., so the total number of humanoid robots in the future will far exceed the total number of automobiles. Since the price of a single machine far exceeds that of mobile phones, the total market size is expected to exceed that of mobile phones.
In the long run, the working scene of multi-functional humanoid robot is not limited to indoor, and it needs cellular direct connection to provide the communication, perception, computing and AI functions necessary for its operation. Examples are as follows:
The intelligent robot has some super human mobility, which has certain potential safety hazards, and its actions must have strict background control; A single robot has the ability to perceive all kinds of video, audio, location, temperature and humidity, and can complete necessary action decisions through end-to-end computing power and algorithms. However, these data often need to be transferred to the cloud platform. On the one hand, it is necessary to monitor, and on the other hand, it uses these field data and action effect big data to continuously optimize its behavior ability in the cloud, AI model of various functions of the robot site; As mentioned above, the multi-functional robot has many tasks and needs many AI reasoning types, which is difficult to be completely stored locally, and it is difficult to ensure that the local model is the latest version, so when completing various on-site actions and functions, it needs to download and update the necessary model; Using robots to complete some complex tasks on the spot, such as scientific investigation and analysis, requires the help of cloud super model, or multi machine federated computing, and requires the network to have the ability to communicate and unload computing power. In terms of perception, the perception ability of a single machine environment is limited, and it can help it better complete various complex actions and meet people's intent needs through the on-site environment construction of the communication system. In addition to the necessary communication, perception, computing and AI functions provided by 6G, the multi-functional humanoid robot in an ideal state still needs technological progress in many other aspects:
Further performance improvement and optimization of AI large model, which is similar to human brain level; The completion of refined movements requires progress in bionics, machinery, etc., and has the ability of limbs similar to human beings but beyond human limits; The ability to fine coordinate movement is similar to that of human cerebellum. The ability to see, hear, touch and other similar human senses. To sum up, humanoid robots have the ability of action, brain, cerebellum and sense organs similar to human beings, but different from flesh and blood people, they do not need to have human pain, emotion, desire, self-consciousness and other advanced abilities.
Driverless car
New energy vehicles seem to have rolled up. In addition to the traditional directions of rolling power, appearance, interior, comfort, etc., intelligent driving is the most rolling direction. So there's nothing to say, let's not say anything. According to the current trend, by 2030, more than 95% of the road scenarios, including complex intersections, roundabouts, mixed pedestrian and vehicle scenarios, can achieve assured unmanned intelligent driving. The car penetration rate is usually based on families, so the overall population penetration rate reaches 20~30% of mobile phones, but the price of a single car is far higher than that of mobile phones, so the total market volume is larger than that of mobile phones.
To realize unmanned driving above L4, on the one hand, the ability to perceive various local environments and make decisions on local actions is very high; on the other hand, the need for network communication, perception, computing power and intelligence is also very necessary.
Similar to robots, it is necessary to control and monitor vehicles; Need to return data such as on-board camera and various sensors; Necessary model download and update; In addition, in complex road sections, such as intersections and downtown areas, the communication network provides on-site environment construction data through perception, multi vehicle data from the "God's perspective", and multi vehicle action collaboration, which are very important for completing L4. The network needs to provide on-site perception, AI and other capabilities to complete intelligent collaboration of multi vehicles. Stronger smart phones, thin and light XR glasses, multi-functional service robots, and driverless cars, as the most typical four types of terminals in the 6G network, will surely drive the success of the 6G system if the price and experience reach an ideal state and achieve high penetration and utilization.
4、 Objectives and historical mission of 6G
For equipment manufacturers, the simplest expectation for 6G is that it will have more market space than 5G and make more money efficiently, provided that operators are willing to pay for the deployment of 6G.
For operators, the simplest expectation for 6G is to make money. The premise of making money is that users are willing to pay for 6G, and then the network construction and maintenance costs and other factors. For ordinary users, people's pursuit of a better life is limitless. They don't care whether it is 4G/5G or 6G, but hope to create value for users by using the network through a certain type of terminal. These values include material and spiritual, and more specifically, more efficient, convenient and happy digital production, life, learning and other experiences. For terminal companies, they don't really care about 5G or 6G, but they are more interested in creating terminals that meet the needs of the above users through understanding consumer scenarios, which will be favored by consumers. If the 5G capability becomes the key point that restricts the above terminals to reach the "ideal state", they hope that 6G can be put into commercial use by 2030.
The historical mission of 6G is actually to meet people's pursuit and yearning for a better digital life 。 The specific scenes that its digital life can experience depend on the terminal; Whether the terminal is mature and easy to use is favored by the public, that is, the above "ideal state" to achieve high penetration and utilization. On the one hand, 6G may be required to provide services and support from the dimensions of communication, perception, computing and AI, and more importantly, terminal interaction technology, display technology, computing and storage technology, batteries and materials, semiconductors and processes, machinery and control Breakthroughs in software and hardware such as AI big model, as well as corresponding applications, ecological and business model construction.
For 6G, smart phones will further develop and become an important carrier of AI functions and virtual digital people; The XR, multi-functional humanoid robot and driverless car with direct cellular connection and light, thin and high experience are expected to become the most potential 6G new terminal. It is hoped that at the beginning of the development of the 6G technical standard, the industry will clearly put forward the 6G target terminal and its application scenarios, which can, on the one hand, more clearly define the technical direction of 6G, on the other hand, guide relevant industries to accelerate the research and solve the non communication technical problems related to the new form of terminal to achieve "ideal state" two thousand and thirty When the arrival of 6G in 2006, the new terminal and 6G will be synchronized and mature, even similar to the situation of "waiting for" 4G of smart machines.
