Compiled by/Qiaofeng Youya
The year 2021 has ended. After a whole year's accumulation, various quantitative changes have produced qualitative changes. At the beginning of 2022, let's briefly review 2021.
In the past year, wealth still flowed rapidly to the wallets of giants.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk's personal net assets increased by $87 billion - more than the market value of Ford Motor Company. Google The net worth of Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the two founders of. In addition, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon The net worth of founder Jeff Bezos also increased by $21 billion and $4 billion, respectively.
meanwhile, Apple The market value of the company is close to $3 trillion, an increase of about $700 billion over a year ago - equivalent to the annual GDP of Saudi Arabia. The market value of cryptocurrency increased from $770 billion to more than $200 billion, and the total market value at its peak also approached $3 trillion.
Internet users increased by 222 million -- nearly 90 million more than the average number of births per year. At present, the number of global Internet users is only "100 million away" from the 5 billion mark.
All kinds of grand figures accumulated in one year highlight the magnificent waves of the Internet world.
Although the epidemic that swept the world caused massive unemployment, further pushed global inequality to the extreme and resulted in more than 5.3 million deaths. But also because of the epidemic, everyone can only spend time at home, staring at the mobile phone screen, brushing various videos and text content, and many new concepts have emerged.
New concepts such as the meta universe, non homogenous token (NFT), decentralized organization (DAO) and decentralized finance (DeFi) also exploded. Many new terms were unheard of by the public a year ago, but now people are familiar with them.
The 21st century has entered the unimaginable world only 21 years later. Self driving cars, smart phones, social media... Human society has changed. Looking forward to the future, an unimaginable century with more rapid changes is likely to be close at hand.
Officially entering 2022, the world of the meta universe is beckoning to people, cars will be more automated, mobile phone imaging technology will be more powerful, and perhaps there will be unmanned aerial vehicles to deliver packages. Deep forge technology will be popular, and Web3 based on decentralized blockchain technology will become the core of the Internet.
In the new year, the technology industry will undoubtedly take on a new look. We don't know whether it will become better or worse? Only one thing can be sure: no matter which track stands out, we will see a lot of money and new stories repeated constantly.
According to the reports in 2021, the foreign media made many predictions about the major events of overseas science and technology in 2022. Sina Science and Technology selected them and sorted out 15 major event predictions and 10 major emerging technology predictions.
Forecast of 15 major events:
1. Apple and Google are forced to provide third-party payment
The U.S. Congress may pass targeted antitrust legislation to force Apple and Google to allow competing payment providers to make in app purchases and increase the budget of regulators.
In addition, a broader series of bills will force Google, Apple Facebook It is difficult to merge with Amazon and other technology giants.
2. Apple may acquire an automobile manufacturer
Its purpose is to acquire automobile manufacturing skills and scale to develop and manufacture future electric and semi-automatic vehicles.
At present, Apple is promoting the technology of autonomous vehicles, aiming to launch an electric vehicle as early as 2024. It is reported that Apple is visiting the supply chain and automobile manufacturers in Asia to prepare for the mass production of Apple Car electric vehicles in 2024.
3. Waymo will be listed
In the new year, Waymo, an autonomous start-up under Alphabet, Google's parent company, will apply for listing, giving employees the opportunity to obtain liquidity and improving the company's valuation. In the latest round of financing in 2021, Waymo's valuation stagnated at about $30 billion.
After IPO, Waymo will become the largest self driving listed company in this field. Other listed companies include Aurora with a market value of US $11.5 billion and the auto truck developer with a market value of about US $8 billion Tucson Future 。
4. Tesla may sign an investment agreement with a Chinese pool manufacturer
Tesla may sign a large investment agreement with a Chinese battery manufacturer, which is also part of Tesla's efforts to cater to the Chinese market and lock in the supply when battery demand is growing.
It is expected that Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, will go to China in person and announce the establishment of joint ventures, research and development laboratories or major investments to follow suit Intel 、 high pass And other technology companies like Apple.
5. Microsoft Anti monopoly review is unavoidable
The current round of antitrust storm hit the technology giants, but Microsoft was relatively not involved. But in the coming year, the software giant will face more stringent scrutiny.
6. Amazon may split AWS cloud business
Amazon will finally decide to split AWS cloud business. For many years, Wall Street analysts have called on Amazon to divest its AWS cloud computing business, but Andy Jassy, the former CEO of AWS business and the current CEO of Amazon, has always ignored this idea.
The situation may change today, partly because the government is increasingly strict in its regulatory review of Amazon. Another key factor is that Adam Selipsky, CEO of AWS business, has previously promoted the listing of big data company Tableau Software, and he is also a trusted deputy of Jia Xi.
7. Bitcoin price may exceed $100000
In 2022, the price of Bitcoin may break through the $100000 mark, breaking the current record high of $69000. Although the digital cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, people are increasingly interested in special currency. The widespread adoption of digital cryptocurrency should boost the price of "the most widely held digital currency" (Bitcoin).
In addition, the price of Avax token will more than double from the previous historical high of $146 to $300.
8. Meta or acquisition of a game studio
Meta Platforms, Facebook's parent company, will acquire a major video game franchise and the studio responsible for this franchise. In addition to providing a large game to promote the sale of Quest 2 VR helmet, Meta will also use this acquisition to position Quest as Microsoft Nintendo and Sony An alternative to game consoles.
9. YouTube may launch NFT market
YouTube will launch a market for creators to sell NFT (Non Homogeneous Tokens). YouTube has always been a pioneer in providing its video creators with ways to make money. Moreover, as the company is facing more competition from other social networks, taking the lead in launching the NFT market may bring YouTube advantages.
10. Kinescope blizzard Or new CEO will be appointed
Bobby Kotick, CEO of Activision Blizzard, will become the chairman of this "embattled" video game publisher, and a prestigious executive will succeed him as CEO. One of the potential candidates for this CEO is warner Jason Kilar, CEO of Warner Media, is expected to resign after Discovery completes the acquisition of Warner Media next year.
Activision Blizzard may also choose a woman as CEO, partly because of the allegations of "sexual harassment and workplace discrimination" faced by the company. Sarah Bond, vice president of Microsoft Games Group, and Electronic Arts (EA) COO Laura Miele is two potential candidates.
11. Instagram or launch children's app
In September this year, Instagram, a photo sharing platform owned by Meta, announced that it would suspend the development of "Instagram for Children" service. Previously, the plan was strongly opposed by users and legislators, but Instagram did not completely kill the idea.
Since Meta needs younger users to survive (Zuckerberg recently said that serving young people will be the company's "Polaris"), and Meta insists that its Messenger Kids product has been successful. For this reason, Instagram is likely to re launch the "Instagram for Children" service in some form later in 2022.
12. Amazon may raise Prime member price
Amazon will raise the price of Prime members ($119 a year in recent years). To prove its rationality, Amazon may talk about Amazon Fresh, a fresh food service, and launch more movies and sports programs on Prime Video. The big background will be inflation and global supply chain contraction.
13. Uber takeaway platform was investigated by FTC
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) will DoorDash And Uber Eats and other delivery companies to investigate the way they treat restaurants and riders.
In recent years, there has been a wave of integration in this field. The market power of DoorDash and Uber Eats has significantly improved, leading to widespread complaints about high costs and deceptive business practices in restaurants, while workers are also dissatisfied with their wages and benefits.
14. It is expected to establish Amazon Staff Union
Labor organizers may win the first effort to establish Amazon Employee Union in the United States, which also benefits from Amazon's recent national reconciliation agreement with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). In order to overturn this result, Amazon will appeal to NLRB.
In Europe, enterprise office communication software start-ups Slack Such companies have piled up complaints against Microsoft. This is strikingly similar to the antitrust regulation Microsoft faced more than 20 years ago, when Microsoft was accused of using its Windows operating system to usurp the market position of Netscape web browser.
15. Snowflake will conduct US $2 billion M&A
Snowflake, a cloud data warehousing software company, will conduct at least US $2 billion M&A to fill the gap in its product portfolio, that is, software used to build and manage machine learning models. Possible candidates include DataRobot, Dataiku, H2O. ai, etc.
M&A helps further strengthen Snowflake's business. At present, the company has become the fastest growing supplier in the field of data warehousing. Data warehouse is a field specially designed for rapid information retrieval and analysis in the database industry.
Forecast of 10 emerging technologies:
1. Metauniverse
In 1992, Neal Stephenson created the term "meta universe" in his novel Snow Crash, which refers to a persistent virtual world that can be accessed through a special eyepiece. People can meet, flirt, play games, buy and sell things, and do many other things there. In 2022, it refers to the integration of video games, social networks and entertainment to create new immersive experiences, such as inviting you to play in your favorite songs in an online concert. Roblox Games such as Fortnite and so on are paving stones for this emerging media. Facebook has renamed itself Meta to seize this opportunity - and also to divert attention from its other troubles.
2. Virtual online celebrity
Unlike human online celebrities, virtual online celebrities will never be late for taking promotional photos, get drunk at parties, or grow old. This is because virtual online celebrities are computer generated roles. During the "Double 11" this year, "Liu Yexi", a virtual beauty expert, was born, which ignited the Internet. Up to now, "Liu Yexi" has released 5 videos on its Tiaoyin account, with more than 8 million fans. The leading celebrity abroad is Miquela Sousa. People like to call her "Lil Miquela." This fictional 19 year old Brazilian American has 3 million followers on Instagram. Virtual online celebrity has set off an upsurge this year, and capital has been competing for entry, which can be expected to develop in 2022.
3. Brain computer interface
In April, Musk Twitter It was said that a macaque was really playing video games through telepathy with a brain chip ". His company, Neuralink, implanted two sets of tiny electrodes into the monkey's brain. The signals from these electrodes are transmitted wirelessly and decoded by a nearby computer, so that monkeys can play a table tennis game just with their minds Move in The racket on the screen.
Neuralink hopes to test its equipment on humans in 2022, so that paralyzed people can operate computers. Another company, Synchron, has been approved by the US regulatory authorities to conduct human tests on a similar set of equipment. Its minimally invasive nerve prosthesis was inserted into the brain through the cervical blood vessels. In addition to helping paralyzed people, Synchron is also exploring other uses, such as diagnosis and treatment of nervous system diseases, including epilepsy, depression and hypertension.
4. VR fitness
The new year is coming. Many young friends will be full of fighting spirit and make detailed sports plans. They hope they can exercise more, but they lack motivation. Virtual reality (VR) head displays enable people to burn calories while playing games. They can hit or split various shapes coming at them, or twist their bodies to avoid thick obstacles. During the epidemic blockade, gyms were closed one after another, and the powerful low-cost head display Oculus Quest2 was released, making VR fitness more popular. An upgraded model and new fitness functions of this head display will be launched in 2022 Will the killer application of virtual reality be fitness?
5. Wearable health tracker
Telemedical consultation has become commonplace. This may change the future of wearable health trackers such as Fitbit or AppleWatch. At present, they are mainly used as fitness trackers to measure steps, running and swimming speed, heart rate during exercise, etc. But analysts at Gartner, a consultancy, said the line between the consumption of such devices and their medical use was becoming blurred.
Smart watches can already measure oxygen saturation, monitor electrocardiogram and atrial fibrillation. It is expected that the new version of the Apple Watch, which will be launched in 2022, may be equipped with new sensors that can measure glucose and alcohol content in blood, as well as blood pressure and body temperature. Rockley Photonics, which provides this sensor technology, calls its system "wrist clinic". The regulatory approval of such functions may take some time, but at the same time, not only users but also doctors will pay more attention to the data from wearable devices.
6. Quantum computing
An idea that only existed on the blackboard in the 1990s has developed into a priceless competition between local governments, technology giants and start-ups: to build a new type of computer using the anti intuitive characteristics of quantum physics. For some types of mathematics, quantum computers can outperform any non quantum machine that can be built to quickly process operations involved in cryptography, chemistry and finance.
But when will such a machine be available? One way to measure the power of a quantum computer is its quantum bits. In October this year, the Pan Jianwei team of the University of Science and Technology of China successfully developed the 66 bit programmable superconducting quantum computing prototype "Zuchongzhi 2.0", and also successfully developed the "Jiuzhang No.2" quantum computing prototype. IBM We hope to achieve 433 qubits in 2022 and 1000 qubits in 2023. But the existing machines have a fatal defect: the subtle quantum states they rely on can only last for microseconds. It will take years to improve this. However, if existing machines can be made useful at the same time, quantum computing may become a commercial reality faster than expected.
7. Space travel
After an exceptionally bright year, space travel is expected to be held high in 2022. In 2021, a series of efforts funded by billionaires will send civilians into space. In July, Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic Arrive at the edge of space before Jeff Bezos' blue origin. Both billionaires completed a suborbital trip in their own spacecraft. In September, Elon Mask's SpaceX carried four passengers for a multi day orbit around the earth.
All three companies hope to send more tourists into space by 2022. In this year, the number of paying passengers entering space is expected to exceed the number of government employed security for the first time. It is expected that they will not fly again until the second half of 2022, and commercial services will start in the fourth quarter. Blue Origin plans to increase flights, but has not yet explained the time and number. SpaceX has reached an agreement to send tourists to the International Space Station.
8. Express UAV
They took longer than expected to take off. However, the new rules that will come into effect in 2021 will enable UAV delivery to fly higher and higher in 2022. Manna, an Irish startup, has been delivering books, meals and medicines in County Galway, and currently plans to expand its service to other regions of Ireland and the United Kingdom. Google's sister company Wing has been testing delivery in the United States, Australia and Finland. It will expand its shopping center delivery service launched at the end of 2021. The Bulgarian start-up Dronamics will start using winged drones to transport goods between 39 European airports. The question is, will the development of UAV express industry speed up or slow down?
9. Electric "flying"
For a long time, "flying taxi" has been called "electric vertical takeoff and landing (evtol) aircraft" in this emerging industry. In people's eyes, it is like a daydream. Now it is more and more real. Several companies located in many parts of the world will step up test flights in 2022, with the aim of obtaining commercial use certification for their aircraft in the next year or two. JobyAviation, headquartered in California, plans to build more than ten five seater aircraft with a 150 mile range. Germany's Volocopter aims to provide air taxi services for the 2024 Paris Olympic Games. Other competitors include Yihang , Lilium and Vertical Aerospace, etc. Keep an eye on the sky.
10. 3D printing bone transplantation
For many years, researchers have been exploring the use of 3D printed biomaterials to create artificial organs. The ultimate goal is to extract some cells from patients and create a fully functional transplant organ to solve the problem of organ transplantation that requires long queues, matching tests and rejection risks.
There is still a way to go to make fleshy organs. But bones are not that difficult. Two start-ups, Particle3D and ADAM, hope to print bones that can be implanted into human body in 2022. Both companies use calcium based minerals to print and customize bones according to CT scans of patients. The experiment of Particle3D in pigs and mice found that bone marrow and blood vessels began to grow in the implant within eight weeks after the completion of transplantation
ADAM said that its 3D printing implants will stimulate the growth of natural bones, while gradually biodegradable, and eventually replaced by patients' bone tissue. If all goes well, the researchers said that the next step would be 3D printing of blood vessels and heart valves.
Sina Technology is integrated from Vanity Fair The Information、The Economists
