Compilation/Youya
Focus:
1、 Tesla With a trillion dollar market value, it is the top fault of global auto companies, and its market value is about 4 times that of Toyota, VOLKSWAGEN 10 times that of BYD.
2. Tesla's stock is huge and volatile, but it can move forward with its own pace, which is unprecedented. CEO of a consulting company said: "Tesla has changed the way the market priced risk."
3. Tesla has achieved success in the stock market, and various bubbles associated with electric vehicles have also been blown up. Bank of America strategists said that the overall momentum of electric vehicle related products was improved by the popularity of Tesla.
Tesla's market value kept rising, once reaching $1.3 trillion. This year alone, its market value increased by nearly $475 billion, higher than P&G and JPMorgan Chase Market value, equivalent to two McDonald's Market value.
At present, with a market value of more than $1.1 trillion, Tesla is firmly on the top of the global auto companies. Toyota, ranked second, has a market value of more than 250 billion dollars, about a quarter of Tesla's; The third place Volkswagen (more than 120 billion dollars) and the fourth place BYD (more than 110 billion dollars) are only about one tenth of Tesla.
As a "Tesla Financial Complex", its impact on stock market fluctuations has far exceeded the impact of its market value itself. This is due to the complex network of investment vehicles, market imitators (competitors), and the huge related derivatives market.
The force of "Tesla Financial Complex" raided the stock market. Investors in passive index funds, traditional mutual funds, hedge funds and ordinary retail investors had no choice but to face it.
Dean Curnutt, CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, a consulting service company, said: "It is like a wounded thumb, which makes you cannot help paying attention."
Tesla has a special feature, which is the power (options) that drives its market value to soar. Although Tesla shares are popular among many ordinary retail investors, the large scale and excessive activity of Tesla "Options" also surprised many market veterans. Options are a popular derivative contract that allows investors to bet or short a stock to amplify gains or losses.
Goldman Sachs Data shows that in recent weeks, the nominal trading volume of Tesla options has averaged 241 billion dollars per day. In contrast, as the second active single stock option market in the world, Amazon (Amazon) has a daily trading volume of $138 billion, while the daily trading volume of other components of the S&P 500 index (S&P 500) adds up to $112 billion. This makes Tesla's stock more likely to fluctuate, mainly because of the inherent "leverage" effect of the option exchange.
Michael Golding, the US director of Optioner, an options market trading company, said: "Tesla's options trading volume has always been too large, but now it is huge. At the time when options trading began to take off, Tesla represents the innovation of this era."
Tesla's option market is more than 60 times more active than the entire FTSE 100 option market, and almost 7 times more active than the European Stoxx 50 option market. This year, it has helped drive the trading volume of options in the United States to exceed the actual stock trading volume.
This anomaly was largely caused by Tesla. According to Goldman Sachs data, in November this year, in nominal terms, options trading in the United States was 50 percentage points higher than stock trading. Without Tesla and Amazon, this proportion might be 20% lower. In response, Goldman Sachs said in a report: "The combination of high market value and unusual options activities makes Tesla a key driver."
Golding predicted that historically, the total trading volume of American stock options is 10 to 20 times that of the largest single stock option market. However, in recent days, Tesla's option trading activities are five to six times the total of other stock trading activities in the S&P 500 index option ecosystem. "The scale of Tesla's options market is absolutely huge," Golding said
The value of options depends on the performance of the underlying stock options, but analysts said that due to the complex mechanism, if there is enough activity, the "option tail" will also make the "stock dog" unstable, and even penetrate into the broader stock market, increasing its volatility, making it more difficult for many investors to control. (There is a saying in the stock market that stocks are dogs and options are tails, which should be "dogs wagging their tails", but sometimes "tails wagging dogs")
Conat, CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, a consulting service company, pointed out that it is unprecedented to have such a large stock with such volatility, but still move forward with its own pace. For example, he believes that the weight of Tesla's stock and options market is constantly expanding, which is one of the reasons why the "Vix Volatility Index" has recently deviated so much from the actual volatility of the U.S. stock market. "Tesla changed the way the market priced risk," said Conat
Who will short Tesla?
Ordinary retail investors have always been the main force behind Tesla's option boom, but some of them have more resources than others and can make larger leverage bets on Tesla.
Leo Koguan, an IT billionaire, recently said that by the beginning of November, he had accumulated nearly 7.2 million Tesla shares. This was largely accumulated through the active purchase of Tesla call options. Martin Viecha, head of investor relations at Tesla, also confirmed Keguan's statement.
This makes Keguan the third largest individual shareholder of Tesla, holding nearly $8 billion in shares, second only to Musk and Oracle Larry Ellison, co-founder of Oracle. Golding said: "Corona has traded many options, and we can certainly see his footprints in the market. At the same time, he is also encouraging others."
Tesla's reputation and stock volatility have also begun to make it a part of structural investment products such as Autocallables, which further links its stock with the fate of the broader financial ecosystem.
Automatic redemption is a complex savings instrument, which is particularly popular among Asian investors. Bankers sell stock options to build fixed returns similar to bonds. Historically, most of them are options for the S&P 500 index, Hang Seng index or Nikkei index and other overall stock market indexes; However, due to the declining market volatility, some bankers have begun to add options for individual stocks with greater volatility to their structures. Tesla has become one of the popular choices.
Green, chief strategist of Simple Asset Management, an asset management company, said: "Tesla is considered a safe investment because of its large scale and advanced technology, but (for investors) it is very profitable to invest in structural products because of its great volatility."
The fanatical rebound of Tesla's share price has also boosted fund management groups such as Ark Invest and Baillie Gifford under Cathy Wood, which have made heavy investments in Tesla. However, the rise of Tesla's share price has also left a huge and increasingly serious stain on the performance of many other investors, who believe that Tesla's valuation is too high.
American mutual funds, which focus on growth stocks, suffered their worst performance in at least 20 years in October, largely due to the rebound of Tesla's share price. Wells Fargo Bank Analysts from Wells Fargo said that on the whole, Tesla alone reduced the relative performance of American mutual fund managers by 0.46 percentage points in October. This year may have been brilliant, but now it is mediocre.
Drew Dickson, chief investment officer of Albert Bridge Capital, an investment company, said: "Those managers who reduced their holdings of Tesla shares must have been punished. For many people, this is an important reason for poor performance."
Those who are short Tesla are particularly distressed. According to data from S3 Partners, a financial analysis company, hedge funds that short Tesla shares have accumulated losses of more than 60 billion dollars in the past 10 years. This year alone, the loss reached 11 billion US dollars.
The data of S3 Partners also shows that Tesla's "short shares" (the number of short sales, that is, the proportion of shares lent to hedge funds and sold by hedge funds) have dropped from 20% in early 2020 to 3.3% in mid November. According to the analysis of insiders, this shows that fund managers are unwilling to gamble on their career and short a stock that has long ignored the financial laws.
Michael Burry, a hedge fund manager, said last year that Tesla's share price was "absurd" and that he was shorting Tesla. But in October this year, he said that he had ended the transaction and settled his short position.
Electric vehicle foam
Quant Insight, an analysis company, said that Tesla's stock is often not affected by other market and economic trends, but has a certain correlation with Bitcoin, which highlights Tesla's financial characteristics.
At present, the stock price of Tesla seems to be benefiting from some mixed factors, such as rising inflation expectations and tightening dollar conditions And credit Market uncertainty, etc. But Hugh Roberts, director of Quant Insight analysis, said: "Tesla has spent a lot of time getting away from the macro mechanism. Now its stock price is often driven by special factors such as Musk's tweets, which is not surprising." Here, "macro mechanism" refers to the impact of economic environment on stocks or industries.
Tesla has achieved success in the stock market, and various bubbles associated with electric vehicles have also been blown up. Today, the current valuations of Tesla's imitators, electric vehicle start-ups Rivian and Lucid are also close to 100 billion dollars, although the two companies have little revenue and no profits.
Bank of America Benjamin Bowler, a stock derivatives strategist at Bank Of America, said: "With Tesla's popularity, there is obviously a huge halo effect in any product related to electric vehicles."
According to reports, Bank of America said that the global transformation of electric vehicles is driving a three-year IPO boom in the field of electric vehicles (including batteries and charging), and the total amount of financing by the end of 2023 may reach $100 billion.
If Tesla's share price continues to rise, it will further benefit its "believers" and damage its "doubters". However, if it falls sharply, the fluctuation of stock price may be more unpredictable.
In November, Musk sold shares Twitter The voting of "whether to donate" and the denial of signing an agreement with Hertz on Twitter led to a 17.6% drop in Tesla's share price, but then rebounded again without causing any major fluctuations. Because this decline only returns to the level of October, if there is a larger and more sustained decline, the influence will be greater.
Dickson, chief investment officer of Albert Bridge Capital, an investment company, said: "Nowadays, the valuation of many things has the nature of" tail wagging dog "(options affect stocks), but I believe that fundamentals are the most important. But in the past few years, we can see that in the short and medium term, traffic, motivation, expression packs and appetites are more dominant. "
Dickson also quoted the maxim of Ben Graham, a financial analyst, that the stock market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term (a stock that rises in the short term is a stock that many people buy (vote); In the long run, the stocks that really rise are the ones with good performance. "In the current environment, I think we spend more time voting," Dixon said
