Compilation/Xingyun Youya
Focus:
·Since becoming the first private enterprise to put its own rocket into orbit, SpaceX has entered an industry once dominated by the state in only 13 years.
·NASA estimates that the $400 million spent by SpaceX to develop Falcon 9 may be only one tenth of the cost of building rockets under the traditional government contract model.
·Analysts of the Mall said that if Musk became the first trillion dollar millionaire, it would not be because Tesla (but because of SpaceX).
According to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index, as of October 22, Beijing time, Musk's net worth reached $242 billion, becoming the richest man in the world again.
So far this year, Musk's net worth has soared by 72 billion dollars. At present, he and Amazon The wealth gap between founders Bezos has widened to $45 billion. Morgan Stanley Analysts also said that Musk is expected to become the world's first trillion dollar millionaire with SpaceX.
So, what's the magic of SpaceX, the "Centicorn" (with a market value of more than 100 billion dollars)?
On the edge of the Gulf of Mexico, the southernmost tip of Texas, a sparkling rocket is rising from a salt marsh.
The new SpaceX rocket is nearly 400 feet high, and when it is finally developed, it will be more powerful than the one delivered to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Apollo The Saturn V mission to the moon is even higher, and its 33 engines will provide twice the thrust of Saturn V. For Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX, it will play a key role in the future mission of human colonization on Mars.
But this rocket, known as the "Starship", may have a more direct impact on the aerospace industry. Musk fans claim that SpaceX rocket can send 100 tons of cargo into low altitude orbit of the earth. Fans also said that Musk would change the economic situation of SpaceX launch business.
Peter Diamandis, an American space entrepreneur, said: "For the existing rocket launching enterprises, the game is over. At present, any aircraft can compete with SpaceX starship."
SpaceX still has a long way to go to fulfill its commitments, including obtaining the permission of the regulatory authorities, successfully launching a starship from a base in Texas, and proving that it can really reach space, while recycling the two stages of the rocket, which is an important step to reduce the launch cost.
Many experts also questioned whether a large rocket designed to colonize another planet could be used as a multi-purpose transport vehicle to carry out more different ordinary missions near the earth. However, SpaceX successfully turned Falcon 9 into the main tool to reach space, which made friends anxious.
Sierra Nevada Corp, a US private enterprise, has signed a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to deliver goods to the International Space Station. Fatih Ozmen, the co-founder of the company, said: "If you relax a little, SpaceX may become the dominant company." Jeff Bezos' private space company Blue Origin is more straightforward: SpaceX may finally "monopolize" the US deep space exploration field.
Pioneers of commercial space flight
SpaceX Thunder It has dominated the commercial aerospace industry. Since becoming the first private enterprise to put its own rocket into orbit, it has entered an industry once dominated by the state in only 13 years. SpaceX also leapt over Boeing Company and Lockheed Martin (Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company) and other contractors. The joint venture launch alliance of the latter two companies once carried the banner for the US space launch, but they used Russian rocket engines.
In the past six months, SpaceX has achieved many remarkable achievements, and the upward momentum is becoming more and more obvious.
SpaceX has won a contract worth US $2.9 billion from NASA, with the goal of landing on the moon with satellite based astronauts as early as 2024.
NASA initially said that it would choose two suppliers to carry out this task, but finally decided to choose only one, namely SpaceX, which was protested by Blue Origin. NASA officials said that they only signed with SpaceX once, and other suppliers can be selected for subsequent missions. Blue Origin said that NASA would rely on SpaceX for a long time if it wanted to adjust its own system to match the SpaceX Starship.
At the end of last month, Musk embarrassed Bezos again. In July this year, the UK Virgin Galactic Richard Brandson and Bezos, the founders of the company, took their own rockets to the edge of space for personal travel, and spent more than ten minutes in microgravity. But soon after, SpaceX rockets carried four passengers around the earth for a three-day ride, making them the first civilian crew to reach space. The origin of blue and Virgin Galactic were immediately eclipsed.
SpaceX also announced the first 500000 orders for its Starlink broadband network, making it the first enterprise among the new generation broadband communication companies to achieve this achievement. SpaceX operates Internet broadband services through satellite clusters in low orbit, which are about 500 kilometers away from the earth.
NASA recently said that two astronauts originally scheduled to take the Boeing spacecraft will take the SpaceX spacecraft instead. As the definer of the early aerospace industry, Boeing has encountered too many technical obstacles in recent years to allow its first spaceship for commercial development to carry astronauts, which is far behind SpaceX, which is still a start-up.
Why does SpaceX win so many times?
SpaceX has been successful for many times, the core of which is the Falcon 9 rocket. Falcon 9 has reduced the cost of human access to space, becoming a springboard for SpaceX to expand its business scope and for Musk to achieve the ultimate goal of reaching Mars.
Diamandis said: "In terms of performance, cost and reliability, it (Falcon 9) is indeed the most successful rocket in human history."
According to data from space research and consulting company BryceTech, SpaceX's share in the global rocket launch market (excluding China) exceeded 50% for the first time in the first half of 2021. Although the number of rockets launched by China during this period is almost the same as SpaceX, the load weight of the latter launched into space is three times that of China.
In order to make Falcon 9 the most widely used rocket in this era, SapceX has adopted a variety of strategies. Now they are also using these strategies on starships, hoping to dominate the global rocket launch market.
Like Tesla, SpaceX has also made many breakthroughs.
The most prominent is Gwynne Shot, COO of Musk and SpaceX we Ll) Success in pushing disruptive technologies into mainstream production. As far as Falcon 9 rocket is concerned, its most breakthrough technology is to use 3D printing technology to manufacture the most complex part of the rocket, that is, the engine, and reuse the main propeller to recycle it for future launch missions.
In order to master this new technology, SpaceX did everything by itself in all aspects of the self-developed rocket, and almost never missed any detail, not relying on suppliers. Musk himself served as the chief engineer in early times to encourage his team. SpaceX also took all development risks on its own, rather than relying on NASA's guarantee for payment, which forced it to comply with stricter financial discipline.
Therefore, NASA estimates that the $400 million SpaceX spent to develop the Falcon 9 rocket may be only one tenth of the cost of building the rocket under the traditional government contract model.
In addition, both SpaceX and Tesla can obtain cheap capital at any time, which benefits from the overvaluation of their business given by investors. Musk raised more than $6.5 billion for the company in the private market and raised its valuation to $74 billion earlier this year.
It is reported that SpaceX has reached an agreement with new and old investors of the company to sell up to $755 million of shares from insiders at a price of $560 per share, making the company's valuation reach $100.3 billion.
Steve Collar, CEO of SES, a satellite company, said that most competitors have to make money from their existing businesses to support new ones. He added that SpaceX could easily find investors, so it would take more risks.
With strong funds and strong satellite launch capability, SpaceX launched the star chain business, beating potential competitors such as OneWeb and Amazon's Kuiper. SpaceX launched its own Internet broadband service by virtue of the star chain.
While other enterprises are still trying to launch artificial satellites into orbit, SpaceX's star chain project has developed into the third generation technology. Kohler said that although SpaceX had given up billions of dollars worth of satellites in the process of improving the satellite cluster, it did not fail. For enterprises that are difficult to obtain investment easily, it may be difficult to turn over when encountering the same problem.
Competitors complain that SpaceX may crowd out smaller companies with weak financing capacity. Blue Origin has filed a formal complaint about NASA's lunar landing contract. It said that the loss of NASA's contract will make its New Glenn rocket lose an important market. The rocket has spent 2.5 billion dollars in development costs, but it has still not left the launch pad.
Amazon and other industry insiders also warned that SpaceX's vertically integrated manufacturing mode would also deprive other American suppliers of business and weaken the country's extensive industrial base for long-term space exploration.
SpaceX customers, including government customers, do not seem to have such concerns.
Phil McAlister, director of NASA's commercial space flight department, said: "Before SpaceX, we only had the ULA Vulcan rocket, so we are in a better situation than before."
Diamandis further said: "The high efficiency of SpaceX is directly reflected in the space program of the United States. In some markets, SpaceX's competitors seem very willing to use its launch services, although this is considered to support the competitors."
SES is still willing to rely on SpaceX's rocket launch service. Kohler said: "In the satellite launch industry, SpaceX is strong enough to frighten some companies, but I don't think it is necessary."
Demand for commercial space flight soars
The next era of space exploration is coming
Warnings about the vertical integration structure of SpaceX or the weakening of important supply chains have failed to attract attention in many aspects of the emerging commercial aerospace industry. Most new rocket companies have adopted a similar model.
Playground Global is a venture capital company investing in the space industry. Its partner, Jory Bell, also pointed out that the traditional supply chain in the space industry is more for political purposes than commercial purposes. Let suppliers spread all over the country, so that more politicians can claim their success by winning the share of government space contracts.
However, the most risky argument against monopoly risk is that SpaceX has caused the cost of entering space to plummet, resulting in a surge in demand, which is far beyond the strength of other companies. Most of SpaceX's business comes from the new communication network and the government. The former aims to launch constellations composed of thousands of satellites, while the latter is eager to carry out national defense construction or participate in more in-depth space exploration by going into space.
Edison Yu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, said: "This market will be subject to supply constraints for many years in the future." He predicted that by the end of 2030, the size of the space rocket launch market will reach 37.5 billion dollars per year, five times the level of 2021.
Many insiders believe that this scale is large enough that at least one large competitor of SpaceX will survive. Even if some existing launch companies are in trouble due to outdated technology, lack of competitiveness in manufacturing methods or a culture based on government contracts, a new generation of subversive rocket companies will rise rapidly.
In addition to Blue Origin, the emerging rocket launching enterprises in the market also include Relativity Space, a company led by former executives of SpaceX. They have raised 1.3 billion dollars and plan to use 3D printing technology to manufacture the entire rocket, not just the engine.
Playground Global is one of the investors of Relativity, and its partner Bell said: "Our goal is not to defeat SpaceX, but to win over other competitors." He also added that a generation of engineers and space entrepreneurs trained by SpaceX are helping to expand the field of commercial space flight, and SpaceX can be said to be the source of this industry.
The commercial orbital flight of starships will have a profound impact on the aerospace industry. Its huge scale will cut the cost of entering the orbit and set a new pricing benchmark, while other companies will also be subject to the new pricing rules.
Analysts said that previously, SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket had cut the price of customers willing to "go up" with others to one third of the past: $5000 per kg. Analysts predict that once the starship is fully put into use, the ticket price may further plummet to $1000 per kilogram, or even $500 per kilogram.
It has become one of the few "Centicorn" unlisted companies in the world. According to CB Insights, a research company, SpaceX is now the second most valuable private company in the world, second only to Bytedance and surpassing Stripe, a financial technology company.
The adaptability of starships in satellite launch is another question, because satellite launch is the pillar of today's aerospace industry. Analysts said that since the starship could not send its large payload into multiple orbits, the satellites it carried would need its own propulsion system to be deployed, which greatly increased the cost.
Dan Hart, CEO of Virgin Orbit, said: "Some tasks need to put a heavy load into orbit; others require high speed, flexibility and accuracy."
Virgin Orbits launched a rocket from under the wing of a Boeing 747 aircraft this year, and then this rocket entered orbit for the first time.
According to SES's Kohler, this is likely to make the starship "more suitable for reaching Mars than commercial satellites".
Others questioned SpaceX, saying that they might not continue to strive for the market share of conventional satellite launch business in the next few years. However, Falcon 9 has always been the cornerstone of the company, which is used to obtain cash flow and technology to enable the company to enter deeper space for exploration.
Diamandis and other supporters believe that when Musk considers giving up Falcon 9 and turning all efforts of SpaceX to the goal of starship and reaching Mars, he should be taken seriously. He said: "Musk gave up the old product and burned the starship. This is one of the reasons why he has won many victories in opening up new fields."
Judging from the current rocket launch market, it may be too early to write an epitaph for Falcon 9. But when the starship is finally launched, the next era of space exploration will come.
Changed investors' expectations of the space industry
SpaceX is the real ace in Musk's hand?
Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a research report to investors on Monday: "This technological evolution has the potential to change investors' expectations of the space industry."
Jonas also quoted a customer as saying: "Talking about space in front of 'Starship' is like talking about space in front of Google Talk about the Internet in front of you. "
The Mall also pointed out that its latest view on SpaceX was a response to the report of the media that "SpaceX's valuation has reached 100 billion dollars".
In the past few years, SpaceX's valuation has soared because the company has raised billions of dollars to fund two capital intensive projects: Starship and Starlink satellite Internet services.
Jonas said in the report: "What SpaceX has done is challenging any existing knowledge about rockets, launching and supporting infrastructure."
"Starship" is the next generation giant rocket being developed by SpaceX, which is used to launch goods and send humans to the moon and Mars. The "Star Chain" satellite Internet service is SpaceX's Golden Ticket.
In Morgan Stanley's view, SpaceX has created a "double flying wheel" for technological development by using recyclable rockets and "star chain" satellites. Morgan Stanley bet most of SpaceX's valuation on the profit potential of the "Star Chain" satellite Internet network. Musk has previously said that the network may bring up to 30 billion dollars in revenue every year.
Jonas said, "We believe that SpaceX's launch capability is inextricably linked to the 'star chain'. Improvements in launch capability/bandwidth (including frequency and payload per flight) and launch cost have improved the economy and scale of the 'star chain' satellite network. At the same time, the development of the 'Star Chain' business opportunity has provided a thriving 'exclusive customer' for the launch business, thus achieving symbiotic development. "
Morgan Stanley estimates that "Star Chain" will consume about 33 billion dollars in the current decade, and will achieve positive cash flow in 2031. In fact, Morgan Stanley predicted last year that SpaceX would become a company worth 100 billion dollars. At that time, SpaceX was valued at only $44 billion.
Jonas also said in the report: "More than one customer told us that if Musk became the first trillion millionaire, it would not be because of Tesla (implying SpaceX). Others said that SpaceX might eventually become the company with the highest valuation in all industries in the world."
