Source: Securities trader China
With the continuous development of ESG, a public offering fund, and listed companies increasingly cherishing feathers, the exposure of funds' heavy positions on March 15 12 years ago may become less and less.
Since the fund's heavy position 12 years ago became the leading player in the market at the March 15 evening party, March 15 once became the core topic of fund managers and researchers' attention. With the continuous growth of domestic per capita income in the past 10 years, the improvement of consumers' awareness of quality under consumption upgrading, and the continuous attention to consumer companies' health issues in the research of public funds, Make listed companies increasingly cherish their feathers.
3 · 15 Once hit the fund manager
3.15 Once became a short-term factor that fund managers and researchers paid great attention to.
Today, 12 years ago, the sensational Shuanghui clenbuterol event became the focus of CCTV's attention on March 15, 2011, which quickly stirred waves in the A-share market, making the A-share listed companies at that time Shuanghui Development On March 15, the stock price had already been "closed down", and then the announcement was made that the trading had been suspended since March 16. After the resumption of trading, its stock price had significantly dragged down the public offering funds with heavy positions in Shuanghui Development. According to the information disclosed in the periodic report at that time, a total of 56 funds held about 146 million shares of Shuanghui Development, accounting for 24.10% of the outstanding shares of Shuanghui Development at that time.
For public fund managers, this event was a short-term event that affected long-term decisions, not only because the positions on the day of the March 15 limit fall were damaged, but also because the long-term trend of stock prices after the event was low, leading fund managers to reduce positions after the event.
At that time, Xingquan Trend Investment Fund, which was managed by Wang Xiaoming, the top stream fund manager, had the largest position in Shuanghui. It held 14.46 million shares in advance, with a market value of more than 1.2 billion, making it the largest heavy position of the fund. Afterwards, according to the change of position information at that time, the fund reduced its position by 780000 shares in the remaining two weeks of March of that year. In the following years, the fund gradually cleared Shuanghui Development out of the list of heavy positions.
In order to avoid stepping on the thunder, the fund surveys consumer stocks that are mostly involved in "health issues"
Due to the Shuanghui clenbuterol incident, the fund managers and researchers of the consumer track once paid more attention to March 15.
At that time, many fund managers said that in the stage of researcher recommendation, whether they would become a problem company on March 15 was included, which made the main role of inquiring about March 15 once a must answer link for buyer fund managers, researchers and seller research institutions.
However, with the continuous growth of per capita income in the past 10 years, the strong supervision of relevant departments on food safety and the strong safety awareness of consumers, The A-share consumer track listed companies began to cherish their feathers. Fund managers' inquiries about listed companies in fund research also enabled fund managers to establish food safety awareness in advance, making listed companies aware of the strong demand of institutional investors such as public offerings.
In a collective survey of fund managers at the beginning of this year, fund managers asked a listed company whether there was a healthy negative impression of the food additive end of fat and whether there was further popular science education. This problem continued to become a concern of investors on March 14. The company responded to fund managers and investors that the company was positive Fully promote the action plan of zero trans fatty acids, and completely stop selling trans fat containing products in 2022. In the nutrition composition table of relevant product labels, all trans fatty acids have been identified as zero.
The continuous development of ESG investment in the domestic public offering industry has also reduced the possibility of fund managers stepping on the thunder in March 15.
Li Haiwei, the deputy general manager of Jingshun Great Wall Fund, believed in an interview with the Securities Times that in recent years, multiple factors have promoted the rapid development of ESG investment in China. On the one hand, because the consideration of "environment" is highly consistent with carbon emissions, energy conservation and environmental protection, the government and regulators guide listed companies to disclose environmental, social and governance information from the institutional level, and the information disclosure of listed companies in ESG has also changed from voluntary to semi mandatory, which can undoubtedly provide more stable and accurate underlying data for ESG investment. In terms of stock pool and daily management, the negative list is used. The negative list will be adjusted regularly and dynamically according to the concept of ESG. At the same time, the ESG quantitative investment team of Jingshun Great Wall will learn more about the enterprise and further screen and manage it by means of research of the company's research department.
Li Haiwei stressed that the concept of ESG is easier to be recognized by institutions, and it will take some time to be recognized by retail customers. In fact, ESG strategic funds have better stability in their core positions due to their better stock fundamentals. The market has also proved that ESG varieties have better resistance to falls in the past few years when the market fluctuates significantly, reflecting a strong defensive nature.
Consumption may have beta market, and fund managers are optimistic about the main line of recovery
It is worth mentioning that the core track consumption in March 15 has also become the focus of fund managers this year.
Chen Heng, the manager of the dual drive optimal and flexible allocation hybrid fund of Chinese businessmen, believes that the consumption sector is the focus of this year's investment. Since the beginning of the year, with the substantial optimization of relevant national policies and the policy of "stabilizing growth and promoting consumption", the fundamentals of the mass consumption segment track are expected to further improve. The offline consumption scene is facing a strong recovery. The flow of people is recovering, and retaliatory consumption may come. Many retail enterprises that have suffered heavy losses before will probably benefit directly, and their performance expectations will reverse. Looking forward to the future, Chen Heng believes that with the continuous optimization of domestic policies, the consumption and travel sectors may receive renewed attention from the market.
In terms of investment choice, Chen Heng said that although he closely followed the excitement and heat map of the market, the judgment of the long-term value and profitability of listed companies was still the first issue. Throughout the year, the development of new technologies and the judgment of new valuations may provoke the nerves of the market back and forth, but they are still willing to devote more energy and resources to the research of industrial development and the judgment of economic prospects, including how the supply of emerging consumption matches the new demand of the times, and many investment opportunities are brewing.
Shen Li, the fund manager of the fund investment department of Caitong Fund, also stressed that the market opportunity rate of this year's consumer track is more than that of 2022. The economy is expected to recover benign growth, and he is optimistic about the overall situation of the consumer industry. He believes that the consumer sector may have a beta market before differentiation. If economic fundamentals and consumer confidence are further stabilized and restored, and residents' "pocketbooks" gradually become loose, then the market in the consumer sector may be comprehensive. Shen Li also pointed out that the ROE of the food and beverage sector is more stable than that of other consumer goods. The "moat" of this plate mainly focuses on brand, channel and cost, while the core factor affecting the "moat" is management ability, which together constitute the competitive advantage of the plate leader.
A researcher of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes that in the future, with the marginal weakening of the impact of the epidemic on domestic consumption demand, people's production and living order will recover smoothly, downstream consumption scenarios will return, and the domestic economy is expected to enter a weak recovery stage. There is a high degree of certainty in rebuilding consumer confidence. The long-term growth momentum of the food and beverage industry is expected to be gradually restored in 2023. Although there will be twists and turns in the overall recovery process, the overall trend will remain upward.
"The demand of the food sector continues to improve, which is expected to usher in a big year." The researchers of the fund company mentioned above emphasized that with the improvement of the demand side, the accelerated flow of social personnel, the stable decline of the price of oil and other raw materials, the scale effect of related enterprises is expected to highlight, from downstream catering enterprises to midstream food manufacturing enterprises to upstream condiment enterprises, The profitability of the whole industry chain is expected to improve. Take quick freezing enterprises as an example. During the epidemic period, facing the pressure of shrinking downstream consumption scenarios and rising raw materials, many non-standard small enterprises gradually withdrew from the market due to blocked channel development and pressure on capital turnover. In 2021, the number of quick freezing food related enterprises decreased significantly compared with that before the epidemic, which means that the environment for low price competition has improved and the Matthew effect of the industry is prominent, The market share is constantly transferred to leading enterprises.
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