In the early morning of the 25th Beijing time, the US stock market closed higher on Friday, and the NASDAQ index hit a record high. Both the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index rose for the fifth consecutive week. US durable goods orders unexpectedly climbed in April. The market continues to evaluate the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve this year. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the United States is on an unsustainable fiscal path.
The Dow rose 3.94 points, or 0.01%, to 39069.20; The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 184.76 points, or 1.10%, to 16920.79; The S&P 500 index rose 36.87 points, or 0.70%, to 5304.71.
The Nasdaq rose 1.41% this week, the fifth consecutive week of gains. The S&P 500 index rose less than 0.1% this week, also recording its fifth consecutive week of gains. The Dow fell 2.35% this week, ending the previous five consecutive weeks of gains.
Next Monday is Memorial Day in the United States, and the US stock market and other financial markets will be closed.
As the long weekend approaches, investors will avoid making large bets. At the same time, some people worry that the shift to a faster settlement cycle in the United States may lead to some transaction failures after Wall Street returns from Monday's holiday.
Nvidia, the leading AI chip company, closed up about 2.6%, setting a new record, with a market value of more than 2.6 trillion dollars. The company's first fiscal quarter earnings exceeded expectations, and announced a 1 to 10 stock split plan, and announced strong future performance guidance.
Nvidia has become a key wind vane in the US stock market, and it is the de facto leader of the so-called "Big Seven" in the US stock market.
Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group, said: "The market often stops to take a breath at the weekend of the long holiday. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are the most important market catalyst, and even Nvidia cannot completely refocus the market on positive factors."
Christopher Waller, the governor of the Federal Reserve, said on Friday that the decline of the neutral interest rate over time may be due to significant changes in the global demand for safe assets, but he warned that unsustainable fiscal spending may change this trend.
Waller said: "The United States is on an unsustainable fiscal path. If the growth of the supply of US government bonds starts to exceed the demand, it will mean that the price will fall and the yield will rise, putting upward pressure on the neutral interest rate."
According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting released on Wednesday, in fact, at the latest meeting, central bank policymakers expressed concern about the lack of progress in curbing inflation.
The strong economic data released on Thursday and the strong wording of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released earlier this week further weakened investors' bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year.
The data of the service industry and manufacturing industry in May exceeded economists' expectations, while the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ended May 18 was 215000, lower than the average market estimate of 220000, indicating that the labor market is still tense.
At present, the swap trade is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in December rather than November. The market currently expects that the interest rate cut in 2024 will be only 35 basis points, while the expectation at the beginning of this year is 150 basis points.
After the release of strong economic and labor data this week, Goldman Sachs The forecast time for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was postponed from July to September.
David Mericle, an economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote: "By September, the inflation situation in the United States may have improved greatly, but it will not be perfect, and the speed compared with the same period last year will make it an uncertain decision to cut interest rates."
The strategists of Deutsche Bank believe that even if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates this year, the S&P 500 index can continue to soar and hit a record high again.
Binky Chadha, the chief US equity and global strategist of the bank, said in an interview that as long as the economy and corporate profits are growing, the stock market can remain strong even in the face of higher interest rates for a longer time. Chadha last week raised the year-end forecast of S&P 500 to 5500, about 4% higher than Thursday's closing level.
The founder of Double Line Capital, known as the "new bond king", said on Thursday that he expected the US economy to fall into recession as early as this year because of the pressure on US consumers and businesses caused by high interest rates.
Gunrak said that signs such as the rise of credit card delinquency rate and the weakening of retail sales data show that the possibility of the US economy shrinking is more urgent than the risk of inflation rebound.
He said: "There are many signs of recession. It is not so much inflation as the feeling of economic recession." Ganglac said that he is staying away from the most risky parts of the corporate bond market, such as 3C rated corporate bonds and private credit investment, because he expects that corporate debt defaults will surge. In the case of a sharp economic slowdown, investors seeking higher returns in the private credit market than in the public debt market may face the risk of continuing to hold illiquid assets.
On the economic data side on Friday, the US Department of Commerce reported on Friday that the demand for durable goods such as appliances, cars and planes was far stronger than expected in April.
Durable goods orders increased 0.7% in April, slightly lower than the 0.8% increase in March, but much better than Dow Jones A decrease of 1% is widely expected. Excluding transportation projects, orders still grew by 0.4%. However, excluding defense products, new orders were flat.
Focus stocks
Nvidia closed up about 2.6%, its share price hit a new record high, and its market value exceeded 2.6 trillion US dollars. The company's revenue in the first fiscal quarter increased by 262% year on year to $26.044 billion. The revenue of the data center increased by 427% year on year to $22.6 billion, which is expected to be $22.1 billion, a record high. Net profit increased by 628% year-on-year to 14.881 billion US dollars.
At the same time, Nvidia also announced a stock split plan of one to ten.
The company expects revenue of $28 billion in the second fiscal quarter, higher than the average expected value of $26.61 billion according to the survey of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). This indicates that Nvidia does not believe that the strong performance growth momentum has slowed down. The market expects the company to earn $5.95 per share in the second fiscal quarter.
Tesla Recently, it was officially announced that its Shanghai energy storage super factory had broken ground. This major project is not only Tesla's first energy storage super factory overseas, but also marks an important step in Tesla's global energy storage layout.
In addition, Tesla CEO Mask said at the VivaTech conference, the largest scientific and technological innovation event in Europe, on Thursday that AI will eventually replace all human work, but this is not necessarily a bad thing. In Musk's view, the future work will be "optional".
According to the document disclosed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 23, AMD The related party GRASBY PAUL DARREN plans to sell 15000 ordinary shares on May 23, with a total market value of about 2.5279 million dollars.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wadbush Securities, will Apple The company's target stock price was raised from $250 to $275 to reflect the super cycle of the iPhone 16 driven by AI technology, which he thought might increase the stock price by $30 to $40.
Ives also stressed that the upcoming global developer conference will be a critical moment for Apple.
He wrote in a report: "We will raise our target price of Apple from $250 to $275 to reflect the demand for iPhones - the upcoming AI driven iPhone 16 super cycle. We believe that the AI technology built into the Apple ecosystem will add $30 to $40 per share to the stock."
On May 24, Amazon Announced the launch of the "2024 Amazon Export Cross border Logistics Accelerator Program" in Shanghai, and said that it would set up a local support team for Amazon Warehousing Distribution Network (AWD) in China to respond to cross-border first leg logistics and warehousing needs of cross-border sellers.
It is understood that currently, Amazon Global Logistics has added "Guangfo Integrated Picking" to the existing package picking region, which is applicable to cross-border cargo transportation in Guangzhou and Foshan, which also means that Amazon can provide the first pick up function for local Chinese sellers. In addition, with the approaching of Amazon Prime membership day in 2024, Amazon Global Logistics will also add 8 exclusive large goods warehouses in the peak season of Western America.
According to media reports on May 24, Meta Platforms and Google It is providing millions of dollars to Hollywood studios, aiming to reach a license agreement to further improve its AI generated video model. According to the latest media report, the offer made by the two companies has reached "tens of millions of dollars". However, the final outcome of the current negotiations is still unclear.
Lilly The company said on Friday that it would invest another 5.3 billion dollars in a pharmaceutical factory in Lebanon, Boone County, Indiana, to increase the supply of its popular weight-loss drug Zepbound, diabetes drug Mounjaro and other drugs.
In the past year, the market's demand for Lilly's drugs far exceeded its supply, making it short of supply in the United States, and forcing the pharmaceutical giant to invest heavily to expand its production scale.
TSMC Sales are expected to increase by 30% in the second quarter.
Rose Department Store's first fiscal quarter performance exceeded expectations and raised the annual earnings per share guidance.
HR software provider Workday Lower the subscription revenue guidance for fiscal year 2025.
The adjusted earnings per share guidance of Intuit, a US financial and tax software giant, in the fourth fiscal quarter fell short of expectations.
Bo Jian plans to spend US $1.8 billion to acquire HI Bio to strengthen the research and development of rare disease drugs.
Pinduoduo The target price was raised by several major banks after the release of better than expected performance.
In other market scenes, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 0.85 dollars, or 1.11%, to close at 77.72 dollars per barrel.
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