The US stock index futures were mixed before Wednesday's trading, and the market was waiting for possible clues about when the Federal Reserve would begin to cut interest rates. Nvidia will release its financial report after the close of today.
As of press release, Dow futures fell 0.1%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.04%.
Germany's DAX index fell 0.3%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.4%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.6%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.3%.
WTI crude oil fell 0.58% to USD 78.20/barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.53% to 82.44 dollars/barrel.
British CPI ignites the market. Data shows that inflation in the UK slowed down less than expected last month, and a key core indicator almost did not decline, which led to doubts about when the Bank of England began to cut interest rates.
On Tuesday, the market was still betting that the Bank of England might start to cut interest rates next month, in line with the European Central Bank, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice this year. But this argument is disintegrating, especially when the latest data shows signs of continued domestic price pressure.
It is "impossible" to cut interest rates in June. Neil Jones, a foreign exchange salesman at TJM European financial institutions, said, "Frankly speaking, the situation in August will remain unresolved."
The latest data from the UK has heightened people's concern that global inflation pressure is still intractable, preventing central banks from relaxing policies as soon as expected.
Earlier on Wednesday, New Zealand managed to keep interest rates unchanged and hinted that it would maintain its tightening policy for a longer period of time. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that he needed to see more good inflation data before starting to cut interest rates.
Richard McGuire, head of interest rate strategy of Rabobank, said in a report: "The inflation data of the Federal Reserve of New Zealand and the United Kingdom highlight the worrying nature of the current situation, and it is difficult for investors to judge the timing and extent of the long-awaited central bank easing cycle."
The minutes of the Federal Reserve came.
Traders have lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Currently, they expect to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points in 2024, while last week they expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, which are scheduled to be released later on Wednesday, may provide more clues to understand the thoughts of interest rate makers.
The minutes of the meeting should confirm that the next interest rate action of the Federal Reserve is still likely to be lowered, but policy makers need to have more confidence in the recovery of downward trend of inflation.
Federal fund futures suggested that the possibility of interest rate cut by September was about 66%, and the rate cut this year was 43 basis points.
El Erian, Allianz's chief economic adviser, believes that the Federal Reserve officials, whether traditionally regarded as "hawks" or "doves", have recently shown a clear convergence when they sent signals to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time. This consistency cannot guarantee that the economy and the market will be smooth from now on, because this is a period when confidence in the judgment and effectiveness of the Federal Reserve has been shaken.
El Erian said that, in fact, there are three outstanding risks. The first risk is related to the Federal Reserve's policy of "relying on data". In a world full of so many uncertainties, this passive approach is problematic. The second risk is that more and more companies are worried about weak consumer demand. The third risk is that the policy signal of the Federal Reserve is calibrated with the outdated inflation target of 2%. The current target of 2% may be too low.
Nvidia's financial report is absolutely heavy.
The stock index futures in the United States have not changed much. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index hit a new record high, and Nvidia, the leader of artificial intelligence, will release its financial report after the close of today. According to Wall Street estimates, the company's revenue is expected to grow by 243%, but the stock price has risen by 90% so far this year, which means that the company may be difficult to meet high expectations.
With the growing influence of Nvidia on the broader market, Nvidia's earnings will provide the latest test for the rebound of the US stock market. Since this year, the US stock market has pushed all indexes to record highs.
As Nvidia's chips are the gold standard in the field of artificial intelligence, its performance is widely regarded as a barometer of the emerging artificial intelligence industry. The development of this industry has stimulated the enthusiasm of investors and helped promote the bull market of the U.S. stock market.
The market turbulence may follow, and the option pricing is up and down 8.7% of the stock price, worth 200 billion dollars.
"This is a key event," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. "It seems strange for the market to focus on a company's performance, but in recent quarters, the company's performance release has become one of the most important events on the macroeconomic calendar."
Federal Reserve officials reiterated that more evidence of lower inflation is needed before cutting interest rates.
Two Fed officials reiterated that interest rates would remain high for a longer period of time, stressing the need to be patient as the Fed waited for more evidence that inflation was falling.
Loretta Mester, chairman of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, said at the symposium hosted by Raphael Bostic, chairman of the Atlanta Federal Reserve on Tuesday that she hoped to see "the inflation data of several months seems to be declining" before cutting interest rates.
Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Susan Collins also attended the Atlanta Federal Reserve's financial market meeting.
She said that she would like to see more evidence that the price pressure is moving towards the Federal Reserve's goal of 2%. "I think this is a time for patience. I think the data is very complicated."
Collins. "This will take longer than I thought before." Collins has no vote on monetary policy this year.
Wall Street's bullish view of US stocks has become the mainstream! The big motorcycle "idles a lot", and the small motorcycle becomes "the remaining short".
One of the famous short sellers on Wall Street Morgan Stanley After Michael Wilson, the stock strategist, "conceded", his colleague Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager of Morgan Stanley, believed that the US stock market would break the historical high, because the large amount of cash still not entering the market showed that investors were "afraid" of part of the cycle, and then the "FOMO" sentiment would promote the influx of hot money.
Wilson raised the target level of the S&P 500 index for the next 12 months - the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 2% by June 2025, while it was previously thought that the index would fall by 15%.
For other investment banks, the mainstream view is still bullish on US stocks.
For example, Bank of America and Wells Fargo Bank The S&P 500 index is expected to rise further to 5400 and 5535 points by the end of the year, respectively, according to their peers.
Focus stocks
Tesla It fell 1.3% before the session, and sales in Europe fell to a 15 month low.
novo nordisk It fell more than 2% before the session, and a fire broke out in the building in Baxville, Denmark.
Lululemon fell more than 4% in the first session, and reorganized the product and brand team.
Nikola rose nearly 4% before the session, and received orders for 100 hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles.
Hims&Hers Health fell more than 2% in the early trading, and Boughton Soleil sold 4915 shares.
MGO Global soared by more than 80% in front of the market, and Q1's total revenue increased by 1385% year on year.
Ericsson It rose 2.4% before the session, expanding smart factories in Texas.
Carbon Doctor Holdings fell 13% in front of the market, received NASDAQ Notice of violation.
Urban dress It rose nearly 7% before the session, and Q1 performance exceeded expectations.
The stock market of Zhonggai PV strengthened in front of the market, Daquan New Energy Up more than 6%, CSI Solar and Jinko Energy Up more than 4%.
TSMC Up 1.8% before the session, Tesla Dojo AI training module was mass produced using InFO_SoW technology.
Pinduoduo The increase before the session expanded to 6%, and Q1 revenue and adjusted net profit exceeded market expectations.
Vipshop It fell nearly 6% before the session, and Q1 net revenue was lower than expected.
Xiaopeng Auto rose another 2% before the session, H-share rose sharply by 13% today, and Q1 revenue was higher than expected.
Netease It is down nearly 4%, and the results will be announced tomorrow.
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