Topic: Can the hype of "dragon flying and phoenix dancing" be continued due to the intensification of short-term differences?
In the early morning of Beijing time on the 9th, the US stock market closed up and down on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose for 9 consecutive times and the S&P 500 Index rose for 8 consecutive times, both recording the longest consecutive rise in two years. US Treasury yields and WTI crude oil further declined. The market pays attention to the financial report and the speeches made by Fed Chairman Powell and other officials.
The Dow fell 40.33 points, or 0.12%, to 34112.27; The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 10.56 points, or 0.08%, to 13650.41; The S&P 500 index rose 4.40 points, or 0.10%, to 4382.78.
Mainly driven by the rise of large technology stocks, the S&P 500 index has risen for the eighth consecutive trading day, and the Nasdaq has risen for nine consecutive trading days, both of which have set the longest consecutive rise record since November 2021.
Anthony Saglimbene, the chief market strategist of Ameriprise, said: "The market is beginning to prepare for the Federal Reserve's inaction, and we may achieve a soft landing. In the past few months, the stock market has really oversold, and now we finally see a rebound."
The yield of US treasury bonds continued to decline on Wednesday, continuing the downward trend for several days. The yield of 10-year US treasury bonds fell 6 basis points to 4.511%, the lowest intraday decline to 4.503%.
Crude oil futures prices also fell for the second consecutive trading day. WTI crude oil in the United States closed 2.6% lower on Wednesday, the lowest closing price since mid July.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said that after the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes last week, the implied borrowing costs fell sharply, driving this round of US stock market gains. The weak employment data strengthened the market's optimistic expectation that interest rate cuts might soon come.
However, Nathan added: "As investors assess the hope of interest rate reduction and the financial pressure accumulating in the economy, the stock market may stop to take a breath. Moreover, in the current interest rate increase cycle, the market is not the first time to incorrectly estimate the timing of the Federal Reserve's policy shift."
The market continued to focus on the US stock earnings. Roblox The revenue of the third fiscal quarter was 713 million US dollars, and the expected revenue was 830 million US dollars.
Rivian announced that the performance exceeded expectations and issued better than expected performance guidance.
The annual profit and revenue guidance released by Array Technologies is weak.
Boeing The share price of Spirit AeroSystems, a supplier, plummeted. The company plans to raise capital by issuing shares and bonds.
warner Brother Discovery Channel Under Armour , Walter Disney , Take Two Interactive, AMC Cinema and Twilio will release their financial reports on Wednesday.
So far, 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings exceeding expectations, but only 59% of the company's revenue exceeded expectations due to slow demand growth. According to LSEG data, the last time there was such a big gap between the two was in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management Company, said: "All large technology companies have announced their financial statements, and we probably know the basic situation now. So there is nothing surprising."
Several Federal Reserve officials delivered speeches on Wednesday, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and New York Fed President Williams Barr, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, etc.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said Wednesday that the central bank must be willing to jump out of the complex mathematical simulation traditionally used to predict the economy.
He delivered an opening speech at the meeting to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Federal Reserve Research and Statistics Department. He said, "Even if the most advanced models are used, even in a relatively calm period, the economic performance is often unexpected. Our economy is flexible and dynamic, and sometimes it will be impacted unpredictably, such as the global financial crisis or pandemic. At this time, forecasters must think outside the model. " In his speech, he did not comment on monetary policy or economic prospects.
New York Fed President Williams said that recently the macroeconomic model used by the Federal Reserve and other central banks was criticized because it failed to predict the rapid and continuous rise of inflation since 2021, but the model is not responsible for making economic forecasts or policy decisions made by employees.
Williams said: "This is not the purpose of using them. Any defect in the model reflects the lack of our collective understanding, rather than the reason for our wrong understanding. The task of researchers is to learn from experience when modifying existing models and building new models."
Powell will continue to deliver more focused speeches on Thursday.
Prior to this, Federal Reserve Governor Waller said on Tuesday that after the "blowout" GDP data of the third quarter came out, the economy deserved attention, while Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that she still expected the need to raise interest rates. Powell will speak on Wednesday and Thursday.
"The spokesman of the Federal Reserve will try to pressure and cool down the market expectation of interest rate cut," said Todd Schubert, senior fixed income strategist of Bank of Singapore in Dubai
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said yesterday that policymakers have not yet won the battle against inflation, and they will consider further tightening policies if necessary. His Chicago counterpart, Goolsbee, said officials did not want to "pre commit" to interest rate decisions.
Focus stocks
According to insiders, Amazon It will invest millions of dollars to train the Large Language Model (LLM), hoping that it can compete with the top artificial models of OpenAI and Alphabet.
The source said that the internal code of Amazon AI model is "Olympius". The model has 2 trillion parameters, which may make it one of the largest models being trained in the world. OpenAI GPT-4 is one of the best models in the world at present. It is said that the model has 1 trillion parameters.
general motors The autonomous driving department and the US auto regulatory agency said on Wednesday that Cruise, an autonomous driving subsidiary of GM, was recalling 950 driverless cars in the US, and may recall more driverless cars. According to the notice released on the website of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on Wednesday, this recall is because the collision detection subsystem of the cruise automatic driving system (ADS) software may react improperly after a collision. Previously, the company's driverless car escaped after a hit and run accident.
On Wednesday local time, OpenAI's ChatGPT and API services were severely interrupted, which has led to the inability of users and developers to use ChatGPT and API services for more than one hour. OpenAI said that it has found a problem, resulting in a high error rate of API and ChatGPT, and is working hard to solve it.
Rivian raised the annual profit and electric vehicle production guidance.
The third fiscal quarter performance of Robin Hood, the cryptocurrency trading platform, was lower than expected, and the cryptocurrency trading volume fell 55%.
Upstart's revenue in the third fiscal quarter fell 14% year on year.
ANDMA Earnings per share in the second fiscal quarter exceeded expectations.
Spain Telecom The company expects that the profit before tax, interest, depreciation and amortization will increase by about 2% annually by 2026.
shell The revenue and net profit of the third fiscal quarter exceeded expectations.
In other markets, the price of gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.8% to close at $1957.8 per ounce on Wednesday.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.04, or 2.64%, to close at $75.33 per barrel. In December, natural gas futures closed 1.08% lower at US $3.106 per million British thermal units.
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