Headline of the external market: the survey said that the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes are the number one threat in the current market

Headline of the external market: the survey said that the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes are the number one threat in the current market
05:39, March 31, 2022 Market information

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   Global financial media last night and this morning Headlines of common concern mainly include:

   1、 Biden is ready to use the "Cold War era" defense production method to accelerate the exploitation of battery raw materials

   2、 The survey shows that the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes have become the number one threat in the current market

   3、 Richmond Fed President: Opening up to a 50 basis point interest rate hike in May depends on economic conditions

   4、 Germany's inflation rate jumped to the highest level since the early 1990s

   5、 The vacancy rate of office buildings in New York is close to 20%, the highest since 2000

   6、 Apple reportedly launched an ambitious "breakthrough" plan to internalize a wide range of financial services

   Biden is ready to use the "Cold War era" defense production method to accelerate the exploitation of battery raw materials

According to insiders, Biden plans to launch the Cold War era bill as early as this week to encourage the United States to mine key raw materials for electric vehicles and other types of batteries.

It is reported that the White House is discussing adding battery materials to the list of items covered by the 1950 National Defense Production Law. Truman and Trump governments used the bill.

Insiders said that adding lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt, manganese and other minerals to the list could help mining companies obtain US $750 million from the third fund of the US National Defense Production Act. A person familiar with the matter said the move would also help recycle battery materials.

The insider said that these funds are not used as loans or for direct purchase of raw materials. They will be invested in current production activities, productivity and safety upgrades, and feasibility study activities. In addition to electric vehicle batteries, the new order will also apply to large capacity batteries.

   The survey shows that the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes have become the number one threat in the current market

According to the latest media investor survey, most Wall Street investors believe that the biggest threat facing the market at present is the policy error of the Federal Reserve, because the Federal Reserve is trying to control what has not been seen in decades high pass Distension.

The survey conducted this week surveyed about 400 chief investment officers, stock strategists, portfolio managers and media writers in charge of managing funds to understand their views on the market in the rest of 2022.

46% of the respondents said that the failure of the Federal Reserve might destroy the bull market, and 33% said that the soaring inflation in the United States posed a major threat. 11% listed further actions after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict as the biggest threat to the market.

With regard to the market outlook, most of the investors surveyed (58%) believe that the return rate of the S&P 500 index will be flat in 2022, and 36% believe that the benchmark stock index may rise by about 8% to close at more than 5000 points at the end of the year. Another 6% believed that the S&P 500 index would fall below 4000 points by the end of the year.

   Richmond Fed President: Opening up to a 50 basis point interest rate hike in May depends on economic conditions

Thomas Barkin, governor of the Richmond Federal Reserve, said that he was open to raising interest rates by 0.5% at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in May, which would depend on how strong the U.S. economy was then.

"I'm open to that," Barkin said. "I think the question - we will make this decision at the meeting in May - is how strong the economy can bear to raise interest rates and how high inflation is. I am paying attention to these two aspects, and we will make a decision in May."

Barkin said that in order to reduce the inflation rate, interest rates may need to be higher than the neutral level. The neutral interest rate will neither stimulate nor drag down the economy, and the Federal Reserve policymakers estimate that the level is about 2.4%.

"I think it's really possible," he said. "As we approach neutrality, we can make judgments."

   Germany's inflation rate jumped to the highest level since the early 1990s

Germany's inflation rate jumped to the highest level since the reunification of the two countries in the early 1990s. Before the government launched the emergency plan to manage the limited supply, the soaring energy costs had already caused a heavy burden on residents and enterprises.

In March, consumer prices soared 7.6% year on year, exceeding the median estimate of 6.8% according to media surveys. All but one of the 27 economists surveyed predicted CPI growth less than the above actual data.

Spain's inflation data released earlier Wednesday was higher than expected, reaching nearly 10%. These data highlight that it is difficult to predict the price trend in Europe at a time when the Russian Ukrainian conflict has led to increased uncertainty.

These data may strengthen the expectation of the European Central Bank's interest rate hike. After the Spanish data, investors have already moved forward the expected interest rate hike.

   The vacancy rate of office buildings in New York is close to 20%, the highest since 2000

According to a report released by Savills Research on Wednesday, the vacancy rate of office buildings in New York reached 19% in the first quarter, the highest level since data were available in 2000.

In Manhattan's financial district, more than a quarter of office buildings are available for lease, up from 17% a year ago.

Savills said that this was mainly due to the redevelopment of two large buildings, including the former Deutsche Bank headquarters located at 60 Wall Street.

Sarah Dreyer, senior vice president of research and data services of Savills, said that the vacancy rate will continue to rise in the short term, and the market may recover from next year.

   Apple reportedly launched an ambitious "breakthrough" plan to internalize a wide range of financial services

According to insiders, Apple The company is developing its own payment processing technology and infrastructure for future financial products as part of its ambition to reduce its dependence on external partners in the future.

According to people familiar with the matter, Apple A multi-year plan will internalize a wide range of financial work, including payment processing, loan risk assessment, fraud analysis, credit check and other customer service functions, including dispute resolution.

This will make Apple a more powerful force in the field of financial services. At present, the company's financial services include Apple brand credit card, peer-to-peer payment, Wallet application, and the mechanism for merchants to accept credit card payment with iPhone. Bloomberg News reported earlier that Apple is also developing a hardware subscription service and a "buy before pay" function for Apple Pay.

People familiar with the matter said that part of the work of the project was coded "Breakout", highlighting the idea of breaking away from the existing financial system. An Apple representative declined to comment.

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Editor in charge: Zhang Yujie SF107

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