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If you want to list the hot spots in the recent market, you must have a combination of real estate policies last Friday. Various policies such as building guarantee, destocking, down payment reduction and interest rate reduction have followed, and many real estate enterprises have increased their limit.
Is the policy of exceeding expectations a signal of doing more? Or, has the real estate stock entered the hitting point?
Before answering this question, we might as well explain two basic backgrounds: first, the current valuation of many listed real estate companies is between 0.3-0.7 times PB. use Cinda Securities What is implied in the report is the greater concern about the cash flow risk of real estate enterprises. In the future, if the real estate industry is normalized, there is a large space for strategic valuation repair; However, investors are puzzled by the high odds, but the winning rate is difficult to determine and the timing is difficult.
Second, it is also true that institutions have low allocation of real estate stocks. reference resources Dongxing Securities According to the statistics, among the fund's heavy positions in the first quarter of 2024, the market value of the real estate stock position further declined, the proportion of the real estate stock position continued to decline, and the fund continued to allocate the real estate industry at a low level (the proportion of the real estate sector position was 0.95%, ranking 22nd among the 30 sectors).
The report of Huachuang Securities suggests that the appropriate allocation time for real estate stocks is in the range where the sales price of commercial housing stops falling but does not rise sharply. If the excess return is about 20% and the duration can reach half a year, the opportunities worth investing in the real estate sector are mainly from Q2 2012 to Q2 2013, and from Q2 2015 to the beginning of 2016. The comfortable hitting point in these two periods of time is just when the market's pessimistic expectations of real estate have been fully reversed and expectations of future house price rises have begun to form. Because what determines the stock price is the value of the company, and the ability of the company to create profits and free cash flow. The rise of house prices is the basis for the expected improvement of ROE of real estate enterprises. When the real house price rises sharply, the fear of regulation actually makes the real estate sector go down. From the fundamental point of view, the market is worried about the real estate enterprises' land acquisition at high prices, but the final house price may fall.
Answer the question about the time point of intervention, The strategy report of Cinda Securities suggests that investors should pay attention to the cash flow data of real estate enterprises and not sell ——The bottom of real estate stocks often corresponds to the gradual stabilization of the total cash flow of enterprises. This report takes two rounds of domestic and foreign market quotations as an example: in 2014-2015, during the period of domestic real estate policy easing, the policy of destocking was proposed. From the stock price performance, the excess return of the real estate industry began in 2014, but the year-on-year return of real estate sales was Q1 in 2015, and the stock price performance was more ahead of sales. One of the important reasons behind this is that after the policy change, the total cash flow of real estate enterprises has ended declining and stabilized. The experience after the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States also has a similar phenomenon. The excess earnings of real estate stocks also appeared in the period of shock at the bottom of sales. After house prices began to rise, the excess earnings of real estate stocks ended instead.
Of course, some people think that the successive introduction of favorable policies has brought about the opportunity for intervention. Everbright Securities (Rights protection) As mentioned in the report, the current favorable policies for real estate are frequent, and the market's attention to the real estate sector has significantly increased. With the introduction of policies in succession, the market's expectation of the stability and recovery of the real estate fundamentals is expected to continue to rise. In addition to the current performance growth of some real estate chain industries is improving step by step, it is expected that the real estate and the real estate chain industry repair market is expected to continue.
There is also a risk reminder that we have to mention. The report of Huachuang Securities mentioned that it is difficult to obtain excess returns in the real estate industry by participating in the policy game market, and the risk is high. For example, with the resumption of the CSI 300 as the benchmark, the gradual easing of the allocation of real estate stocks based on policies in 201 can obtain excess returns, but during this period, it faces two rounds of large withdrawals; However, if we take Vandequan A as the benchmark, there is basically no opportunity to obtain excess returns based on policy games.
In other words, there may be many reasons to intervene in real estate stocks, but it is better not to just think about game policy.
Reference report
Where is the hitting point of real estate stocks? Huachuang Securities, May 2024
"Four Arrows Shoot Together, How to View the Sustainability of Real Estate Market Restoration?", Everbright Securities, May 2024
"Whether the real estate stock is reversed? What are the decisive factors?", Cinda Securities, May 2024
Fund Positions in the Real Estate Industry 2024Q1: The proportion of real estate stock positions continues to decrease, and funds continue to allocate less to the real estate industry, Dongxing Securities, April 2024
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