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The national team suddenly shot! The 300 billion insurance giant will be reduced by the social security fund, and the financing limit of small securities dealers is also urgent! The market needs to cool down? Keep an eye on the three steering wheel signals
Shi Qian, Zhang Tingting
The market is too hot! Today, the turnover broke 1.7 trillion yuan again!
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed up 1.39%, up for 8 consecutive days; The GEM index closed up nearly 4%. The secondary new shares set off a trading limit, with virus prevention, military industry, photoresist, domestic chips and gold concept leading the way. The turnover of the two markets exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan again. According to statistics, in the seven trading days of July, the turnover of the two markets has exceeded 900 million yuan, which is almost equal to the average trading volume in a month under normal market conditions. The capital from the north continued to flow in, and the net inflow in July exceeded 62.9 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the monthly net inflow level in June.
It can be said that the market is extremely hot. Even Bloomberg News reported that Chinese investors thought they were invincible. In fact, from historical experience, the market with trading volume continuously exceeding one trillion yuan is not very sustainable. According to the investigation by the Chinese reporter of securities companies, the financing quota of some small securities companies has been in urgent need. And just after the close of the market today, the national team also made a sudden move. PICC According to the announcement, the Social Security Foundation plans to reduce the number of A-shares held by the Company without restrictions on sales to no more than 884 million shares within six months, that is, no more than 2% of the total number of shares issued by the Company at present.
What do these phenomena mean for a bull market? Analysts believe that, from the current situation, the continuous excessive trading volume is obviously not conducive to the further expansion of the overall market. In the future, we need to pay close attention to the three major steering signals.
The national team played!
On July 9, the PICC announced after the market that, according to the needs of asset allocation and investment business of the National Social Security Fund, the Social Security Fund planned to reduce the Company's unlimited A shares accumulatively to no more than 884479811 shares within six months after 15 trading days from the date of this announcement through centralized bidding or block trading, That is, no more than 2% of the current total number of issued shares of the Company, which came from the strategic investment in June 2011. The reduction price shall be determined according to the secondary market price. According to the reporter's rough statistics, according to today's closing price, the social security fund will cash out about 7.3 billion yuan.
In fact, in addition to PICC, chip stocks Taiji Industry It also suffered from the reduction of the national team. According to the company's announcement today, Big Fund plans to reduce its total shares of Taiji Industry by centralized bidding, which does not exceed 31592852 shares and 1.5% of the total capital stock of Taiji Industry; During the share reduction period, the number of shares held by the large fund in centralized bidding within any 90 consecutive days shall not exceed 1% of the total share capital of Taiji Industry, which shall be implemented within 6 months after 15 trading days from the date of this announcement. If the company has any share change such as share bonus, capital reserve conversion to share capital, the number of shares reduced will be adjusted accordingly; The reduction price is determined according to the market price when the reduction is implemented.
In 2019, when the market was booming, the social security fund also reduced its holdings of blue chips Bank of Communications 。 On the evening of April 2 last year, Bank of Communications announced that it had received a letter from the third largest shareholder, the Social Security Foundation, which would reduce its A-share holdings in Bank of Communications through centralized bidding or block trading within six months after 15 trading days from the date of announcement. At that time, the shareholding reduction plan was that the cumulative shareholding reduction within three months would not exceed 743 million shares, that is, not more than 1% of the total capital stock of Bank of Communications; The cumulative reduction of shares within six months shall not exceed 1.49 billion shares, or 2% of the total share capital of Bank of Communications. Based on a rough estimate of the closing price (6.28 yuan) on the day of the announcement, the market value of the reduced shares was about 9.3 billion yuan. After that, the market fluctuated upward and reached its highest point on April 8.
Small securities firms are in urgent need of financing quota
In addition to the national team, according to the Chinese reporter of securities companies, some small and medium-sized securities companies also have insufficient financing lines. In the morning trading today, some investors reported that the financing quota of a securities firm in southwest China has been exhausted. Later, the reporter asked about a small brokerage in Shenzhen. According to a person in charge of the brokerage's Shenzhen business department, there is no financing line.
This is not an individual case. A person in charge of credit business of medium-sized securities companies in the north told reporters that recently it was really heard that some securities companies' financing lines were not enough. The so-called "limit exhausted" covers two aspects. On the one hand, the liquidity of funds is insufficient and financing is needed in the short term; On the other hand, the financing scale exceeds the regulatory requirements of risk control indicators. The person in charge said that the market has risen rapidly recently, and customer demand has surged in a short period of time, which has suddenly exceeded the funding capacity of the two financing departments, which is a normal phenomenon in the industry.
Generally speaking, the problem of insufficient liquidity of funds is relatively easy to solve. Ensuring the capital demand of customers is the primary task of securities companies. Securities companies can raise funds between internal departments. This problem is not difficult to solve. However, the problem of risk control indicators is relatively difficult to solve. According to the Measures for the Administration of Securities Companies' Margin Trading, the amount of securities companies' margin trading shall not exceed 4 times of their net capital. If the requirements of risk control indicators are exceeded, only by increasing capital and shares can securities companies continue to expand the scale of financing and financing.
Some medium and large securities companies are far from the upper limit of risk control indicators due to their relatively high capital, and their financing capacity is also relatively strong. "As far as the current market situation is concerned, we are already making preparations for raising funds, but it has not yet reached the point of capital shortage." A person from the brokerage business department said that they still have financing lines at present, and the financing interest rate can be lowered.
According to wind data, the Chinese reporter from the securities firm, since June this year, the balance of financing in the two cities has increased from 1062 billion yuan day by day to 1260.7 billion yuan on July 8, an increase of nearly 200 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 20%. Among them, the financing balance increased by 129.3 billion yuan in seven trading days from June 30 to July 8. However, in terms of absolute scale, the financing balance of the two cities is now higher than the peak in 2015 (Analyst Jin Qilin) It is worth 2.2 trillion yuan, which is still a gap.
Pay close attention to the three major signals
Generally speaking, after a period of market rise, it will not end easily. But the excessive market is also easily limited by funds and supervision. Reasonably, do not place too high hopes on the current wave of 2014-2015 market. After all, the possibility of the leverage boom is very low. For the current market, we can focus on three signals.
The first is to go north. This signal was weakened yesterday, but in today's market, the buying power of foreign capital has increased again. The net inflow in July has exceeded 62.9 billion yuan, and the net inflow in seven trading days exceeded that in June.
Judging from the trend of RMB, it also shows that Chinese assets are indeed popular. The US dollar rose above 7 yuan against offshore people.
The second is the overall trading volume of the market. According to statistics, in the seven trading days of July, the turnover of the two markets has exceeded 900 million yuan, which is almost equal to the average trading volume in a month under normal market conditions.
Based on past experience, we can conclude that the trading volume at this level will not suddenly shrink significantly, and it may be deduced for some time later. If the transaction suddenly converges to less than 1 trillion, or significantly increases to more than 2 trillion, you need to be alert to the risk of market volatility.
Third, what signals will be released by the mid year high-level meeting. On April 19, 2019, the high-level meeting suddenly proposed structural deleveraging, and the market began to adjust due to this impact. At the end of each quarter and in the middle of each year, there will be a heavy top meeting, and the signals released at the meeting will determine the market trend to a large extent.
Sina statement: This message is reproduced from Sina's cooperative media. The purpose of posting this article on Sina.com is to convey more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm its description. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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