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On April 24, Tongwei Shares (SH600438) closed at 21.88 yuan per share, down 4.41%, and its market value fell below 100 billion yuan.
Tongwei Shares For silicon material Battery Double tap. Recently, the price of silicon material continues to decline, Battery The film industry is also making provision for P-type impairment and transforming to N-type impairment.
in recent years, Tongwei Shares Actively transform to an integrated manufacturer, from sticking to silicon materials Battery The two main businesses of silicon wafer are to enter into silicon wafer (including rod drawing and slicing) and components, and even into the upstream industrial silicon field of silicon materials.
Predicament of P-type battery chip
According to InfoLink data, Tongwei will remain the leader of battery chips in 2023. Tongwei entered the component link last year, and the self use volume of components deducted still ranks first.
Tongwei has been the "big brother" of the industry for many years in terms of battery chips, but in the era of rapid transformation from P type to N type, Tongwei may face challenges. In the N-type field, on the one hand Jinko Energy (688223.SH, share price 7.54 yuan, market value 75.44 billion yuan) Jing'ao Technology (002459.SZ, share price of 13.92 yuan, market value of 46.071 billion yuan) and other leading manufacturers have built large-scale capacity of N-type TOPCon (tunneling oxide passivation contact) battery chips; on the other hand, Junda Shares It also has advantages in the field of N-type TOPCon. In terms of heterostructure, (cell chip) manufacturers are mainly for their own use.
according to Jinko Energy According to relevant research reports, the company's N-type products are market leaders. Among the 90GW battery chip capacity, the N-type high-efficiency TOPCon capacity exceeds 70GW, accounting for 78%. As can be seen, Jinko Energy TOPCon production capacity is the top five manufacturers TOPCon battery Double the cumulative shipment of tablets in 2023.
In addition, although Tongwei is still the leader of battery chips TOPCon battery The film field seems to lag behind Junda Shares (002865.SZ, share price 50.53 yuan, market value 11.549 billion yuan) Shangrao Jietai new energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Jietai Technology).
According to the official WeChat of Jietai Technology, TOPCon battery The top five manufacturers shipped about 35GW accumulatively, while Jettech N-type TOPCon battery chips shipped 20.58GW, accounting for 58% of the total shipments of the top five manufacturers of TOPCon battery chips. Jettech ranked first in the global TOPCon battery chip shipments in 2023.
When TOPCon battery chips are discharged, The demand for PERC (passive emitter and back contact battery) battery chips is shrinking. InfoLink said that in the second half of 2023, with the expansion of TOPCon, The demand for PERC battery chips shrank rapidly, and the price plunged. At the end of the year, the manufacturers faced serious losses, and the gross profit rate reached - 11%. Enterprises closed their production lines in succession to reduce losses.
It should be noted that Type P will still dominate in 2023, and Type N will dominate in 2024. According to InfoLink, in 2023, The market share of P type and N type is 71% and 27% respectively. In 2024, Type N is expected to completely replace Type P, with a market share of nearly 79%.
InfoLink said that in the process of technology iteration this year, those manufacturers who cast off the burden of old production capacity and continue to innovate and develop will gain a better market share.
The price of silicon material is in a rapid collapse cycle
Similar to the battery chip, the silicon material field is also facing the challenge of transformation from P-type silicon material to N-type silicon material. According to the semi annual report of Tongwei Shares in 2023, during the reporting period (the first half of 2023), all production bases of the company have been operating at full capacity, and the sales volume of high-purity crystalline silicon has reached 177700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 64%. The domestic market share has reached about 30%. At present, the production cost has dropped to less than 40000 yuan/ton.
On April 18, new power of silicon materials Hesheng Silicon Industry (603260.SH, stock price 45.87 yuan, market value 54.228 billion yuan) once told the reporter of the Daily Economic News: "At present, the supply of P-type silicon material is oversupply, while the supply of N-type silicon material is still tight. In the future, with the implementation of N-type battery capacity, The demand for N-type silicon material will also increase rapidly. In other words, the current overcapacity in the polysilicon industry is mainly reflected in the excess of backward capacity. "
Silicon material giant Daquan Energy (688303.SH, share price 23.94 yuan, market value 51.35 billion yuan) also said in the 2023 annual report that with the widespread application of the new generation of downstream battery technologies based on N-type silicon chips (such as Topcon batteries and heterojunction batteries), the upstream N-type silicon materials have seen explosive growth. As one of the main manufacturers of high-purity N-type silicon materials, the company is keenly aware of market changes and makes early layout, which enables the company to achieve rapid mass production of N-type silicon materials in this round of product iteration. In 2023, the company will sell 53200 tons of N-type silicon materials, of which the sales proportion of N-type silicon materials in December will reach 59.11%.
According to the semi annual report of Tongwei in 2023, as the downstream N-type technical capacity is gradually put into production, The price difference of N/P silicon material is further widened, and the company quickly improves the market supply of N type material in line with the changes in market demand, The sales volume of N-type products increased by 447% year on year.
As for the proportion of N-type silicon material, Liu Hanyuan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Tongwei Group, said in an interview with CCTV reporters that in 2023, the sales proportion of N-type silicon material of Tongwei Group will be about 25-30%; By December last year, the proportion had risen to 60% - 80%. It is expected that in March this year, Tongwei will complete the transformation of nearly 90% of its P-type products to N-type products.
The silicon material industry is not only facing the challenge of changing from P type to N type, but also the price of products continues to decline. April 17, China Non ferrous metals The Silicon Industry Branch of the Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the Silicon Industry Branch) said: "At present, the price of silicon material has fallen below the production cost of enterprises, reaching the cash cost of some enterprises."
According to the data of Silicon Industry Branch on April 17, The transaction price range of N-type rod silicon is 50000 yuan/ton~54000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 52500 yuan/ton, down 10.41% month on month. The transaction price range of P-type dense material is 43000 yuan/ton to 49000 yuan/ton, with the average transaction price of 45900 yuan/ton, down 5.75% month on month. Considering that the production cost of Tongwei has dropped to less than 40000 yuan/ton, the silicon material price has not yet fallen below the production cost of Tongwei.
On April 11, InfoLink said that as of the beginning of the month, the inventory level of the silicon material supply side had exceeded the 22 day level, and the inventory scale and proportion of different enterprises were slightly different. However, from the beginning of the second quarter, the stock lag of the silicon material side will become more and more obvious, and the trend of inventory normalization, including first-line enterprises, may start. On April 17, InfoLink also said that the overall price of (silicon material) is in a rapid collapse cycle, and the final prices of many orders are still uncertain.
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