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Since this year, steel, mining, nonferrous metals and chemical industry indexes have occupied the top four positions in the industry's growth, and the steel index has steadily ranked first with an increase of 86.03%.
On September 13, the turnover of the two markets continued to exceed trillion yuan for 39 trading days, which was close to breaking the record for the longest trading day of trillion yuan. The turnover of chemical industry and nonferrous metals in the two major cycle sectors ranked first, both exceeding 170 billion yuan; The chemical industry index reached a record high, and the nonferrous metals index reached a new high in the past 13 years. COSCO Marine Control The turnover of 11.38 billion yuan ranked first, TBEA 、 Northern Rare Earth The turnover of new energy related leading stocks followed closely.
In the trading list, cyclical stocks account for the majority. For example, in the coal industry Yanzhou Coal Industry 、 Jizhong Energy 、 Haohua Energy , chemical industry Hongbaoli 、 Batian Shares 、 Chuanfa dragon python , non-ferrous industry Silver coloured 、 Shenhuo Shares 、 yunnan copper Etc. As of the closing, excluding the secondary new shares listed in the past month, there are 26 cycle shares that have reached a record high, leading the coal industry with a market value of 100 billion yuan Shaanxi Coal Industry Rare earth leader North rare earth, chemical fiber leader Dongfang Shenghong All of them.
The market value of the chemical industry soared by 3 trillion yuan this year
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the global supply capacity has been limited, and the lack of smooth shipping has led to the tension of international logistics. In addition to the stimulation of the global quantitative easing policy and other factors, the international commodity prices have continued to rise. From steam coal, electrolytic aluminum, steel, metal silicon, to small metals such as nickel, magnesium, tin and zinc, as well as chemical products such as PVC, tetrachloroethylene, PVDF, etc., the waves of price rises keep rising.
Affected by the continuous rise in the prices of coal, chemicals, steel and other products, eight PPI (factory price index of industrial producers) increased in September, hitting a new high since September 2008. Industry insiders pointed out that this wave of commodity price rise is an international problem, based on the stagger supply and demand dislocation and the overall abundance of monetary liquidity, In the short term, individual commodity prices will continue to be strong for a period of time, but the momentum for overall and sustained growth is limited.
Stimulated by rising prices, Chemical industry, nonferrous metals, steel, mining The secondary market of the four major cycle sectors has been shining brilliantly. Data shows that since this year, steel, mining, nonferrous metals and chemical industry indexes have occupied the top four positions in the industry's growth, The steel index ranked first with an increase of 86.03%.
The biggest increase last year was Leisure services, electrical equipment, food and beverage Among them, the performance of food and beverage industry has been flat since 2021, with the decline ranking the second in the industry. With the counter attack of the cyclical plate this year, the market value position of the A-share industry has also changed.
Market cap champion in 2020 Food and beverage Fell to the fifth place, Chemical industry The anti super team rose from the sixth place at the end of last year to the third place. Non ferrous metals The market value of the industry rose from 13th to 9th. Compared with the end of last year, The market value of A-share in the chemical industry has grown most significantly, with a cumulative increase of 3 trillion yuan since this year 。 Non ferrous, mining The market value of industry A shares has also increased by trillions.
Beishang Capital increased its holdings of 6 undervalued cyclical stocks
Guosheng Securities Research Newspaper pointed out that with the arrival of winter, the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to lead to the simultaneous increase of quantity and price in related industries, and the rise of price center in cyclical industries is an inevitable trend, It is suggested to focus on coal, steel, aluminum and other resource industries with rising prosperity, improved resource supply and demand, and partial consumption.
According to the analysis of market participants, the valuation of most cycle leading stocks has risen significantly after the rise of nearly 9 months. However, since the second half of the year, the prices of many cyclical varieties have continued to rise, and the profits of listed companies may accelerate. In light of this, there is still room for upward valuation of many cyclical stocks by the end of the year.
Through the 2021 annual net profit data predicted by more than 5 institutions, the converted P/E ratio of cycle shares is calculated. Statistics of Securities Times · Databao, A total of 33 shares have a converted P/E ratio of less than 20 times, and compared with the latest rolling P/E ratio, they are underestimated by more than 20%.
Of the 33 shares, the calculation is based on the consensus forecast of net profit of institutions, Xingang 、 Tongkun Shares 、 Lu'an Huanneng 、 China Coal Energy 、 Hengyi Petrochemical 、 Kailuan Shares The converted P/E ratio of such 6 shares is less than 10 times.
Beishang Capital has quietly added some undervalued cyclical stocks recently. According to the data, according to the average transaction price, there have been more than 100 million yuan of capital increase in Beishang since September Tongkun Shares, Lu'an Huaneng Hualu Hengsheng 、 Rongsheng Petrochemical , Hengyi Petrochemical Donghua Energy 6 shares, among which, Tongkun Shares The increase of 431 million yuan ranked first.
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