Stock speculation depends Jin Qilin analyst research report , authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities!
On this Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.03%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 2.38%, and the GEM Index fell 4.13%. How to go after the A-share market? See what the organization says.
CITIC Securities: The three major signals will be clear, and the market inflection point will appear
citic securities According to the research report, the current market has basically completed the adjustment caused by the expected correction, and the trend of survival of the fittest continues. Looking forward to the third quarter, the policy signals, price signals and external signals are expected to be clear. It is expected that market liquidity will improve significantly after the Third Plenary Session. Investors will gradually shift from the PEG framework to the free cash flow framework, and capital will gather in the leading industries. After the three major signals are clear in the third quarter, the market inflection point will appear, and the current allocation will continue to have a low wave of dividends, After the inflection point appears, it gradually turns to excellent growth.
Changjiang Securities: cycle bottoming waiting for inflection point
Changjiang Securities The research paper pointed out that the callback of this round of securities dealers was on the one hand that the reform of the capital market system had a certain impact on the business lines dominated by investment banks, and on the other hand, the profitability declined due to the base and market reasons. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we believe that this round of reform is conducive to the healthy development of the market in the medium and long term, and the revision of the core system is nearing the end in the short term. In addition, the operating base has declined in the second half of last year. At the bottom of the current valuation, it is recommended to increase the allocation at the bottom of the cycle, waiting for the inflection point of policies and performance.
Galaxy strategy: patiently wait for the driving signal (attached with the top ten gold stocks in July)
In July, the market is expected to shake and sort out new opportunities. The current market style changes and capital preference changes. It is expected that market sentiment will still be the main factor affecting the market in July. Further increase of market risk appetite needs to wait for a new catalyst. The key point that mainly affects sentiment is the change of policy strength and rhythm, focusing on the upcoming Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. On the basis of the continuous shock and adjustment of the market in June, the overall market environment in July will be relatively better. It is expected that the market will still be dominated by shock, and the market will enter a more obscure period with increasing differentiation between sectors. In this process, it is expected to form new investment opportunities. It is suggested to focus on leading blue chip stocks. The investment strategy allocated in July should focus on the undervalued value stocks+growth value stocks in the sector with favorable policy expectations. In July, we proposed to strategically arrange the value stocks in science and technology, power, military industry, nonferrous metals and other sectors.
Zhongtai Securities: A rebound is imminent: an analysis of the recent market chip structure
One of the reasons for the recent market weakness is that the market sentiment worsens due to the failure of strong policy expectations; On the other hand, due to the expectation of fiscal reform, the market is overly worried. We believe that there is no need to panic at the current time point, and we are still firmly optimistic about the possible rebound in the market before and after the Third Plenary Session. In terms of structure, the technology sector may still remain strong. On the other hand, brokers and leading state-owned enterprises in the upper and middle reaches may form strong support for the index.
CSC Securities: The whole army focuses on preparing for war and closely follows the centennial goal of building the army
On the 27th of this month, the spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense answered questions from reporters about the characteristics and highlights of military training in the first half of the year. The spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense said that since this year, the whole army has closely followed the centennial goal of building the army, focused on preparing for war, vigorously promoted systematic training, scientific and technological training, and military competition training, and steadily improved the level of combat training and combat capability of the army. In combination with the actual needs of China's current surrounding areas and the requirements of the centennial goal of building the military, China's military construction in the future may take multiple scenarios, high difficulties, new equipment, new forces, and deepening international military cooperation as the program to actually promote the demand for arms consumption and new weapons and equipment, and provide new growth impetus for the overall military industry.
Guolian Securities: looking for theme investment opportunities in the second half of the year
Guolian Securities It is believed that theme investment has its own suitable macro environment. Historically, in the macro environment of weak fundamentals, abundant liquidity and upward risk appetite, thematic investment is relatively easier to perform. Themes with high freshness, great influence and rapid development rate may continue to be popular, mainly including AI related themes and figures robot , low altitude economy, synthetic biology, etc.
Galaxy Securities: patiently waiting for the driving signal
In July, the market is expected to shake and sort out new opportunities. The current market style changes and capital preference changes. It is expected that market sentiment will still be the main factor affecting the market in July. Further rise of market risk appetite needs to wait for a new catalyst. The key point that mainly affects sentiment is the change of policy strength and rhythm, focusing on the upcoming Third Plenary Session of the Twentieth Central Committee. On the basis of the continuous shock and adjustment of the market in June, the overall market environment in July will be relatively better. It is expected that the market will still be dominated by shock, and the market will enter a more obscure period with increasing differentiation between sectors. In this process, it is expected to form new investment opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to leading blue chip stocks.
Soochow Securities: The rhythm and structure of ETF inflow since the beginning of the year and its impact on pricing power
The main reason for the increase in the proportion of passive investment is the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market. Encouraging medium - and long-term funds to enter the market is an important focus of "activating the capital market and boosting investor confidence", while the advantages of passive investment funds such as low cost, low risk, large scale and decentralized investment can better meet the investment needs of patient funds. As insurance funds, social security funds and other institutions increase the proportion of equity investment with policy support, passive investment funds will also gradually expand.
Huatai Securities: the allocation idea under the US election portfolio
Huatai Securities The research paper pointed out that the US general election may affect the Greater China equity market from two dimensions: first, the "general election effect" brought about by policy uncertainty. A/Hong Kong shares, Chinese shares and China concept shares are expected to stabilize and recover during the white hot period of the general election or after the periodic disturbance and dust settles, and high-end manufacturing/TMT and other sectors are more sensitive. The second is the "policy effect" brought about by the candidate's policy stance, which may be more far-reaching: 1) If Trump wins the election+unifies the Congress (the current leading combination), the allocation ideas may be guided from the three dimensions of trade tariffs/energy independence/tax reduction to strengthen the US dollar; 2) If Biden is re elected+unified Congress, configuration clues may be provided from the perspective of weak dollar/high-tech precise control. The policy path under the split parliament is blocked, or provides a "cushion" for the general election.
Bohai Securities: Where will US policy go when the tide of science and technology rises again
Although the development of AI still has some limitations in areas requiring deep understanding and creative thinking, it has exceeded human performance in some basic tasks. As the most important general technology in this era, it will certainly have a significant impact on economic growth. On the one hand, AI can change the demand and combination of production factors through the innovation of products and services; On the other hand, the adoption of AI will also have an external impact on the extensive economic environment. It is estimated that from 2023-2030, the development of artificial intelligence will increase the global GDP by about 1.2% every year.
Open source securities: comprehensive upgrading of algorithms, computing power and data to help end to end self driving landing
The algorithm, computing power and data are comprehensively upgraded to promote self driving landing. On the algorithm side, the traditional modular algorithm and end-to-end algorithm in the early stage are expected to run in parallel and smoothly transition to end-to-end; Long term big language model is expected to be combined with end-to-end to form "System I" and "System II" of automatic driving; Finally, powerful general artificial intelligence is expected to completely realize automatic driving. At the data end, the demand for "quantity" and "quality" of data from end-to-end algorithms has soared. Real vehicle collection and synthetic data together provide "nourishment" for the algorithm. The demand for computing power on the computing power side and the cloud side has been further improved, promoting rapid iteration of models.
At present, leading players in China, such as Huawei, Xiaopeng, Weilai, Yuanrong Qixing, Horizon, Shangtang, etc., have launched their own end-to-end algorithms and plans, and have made rapid progress in data and computing power. Functional experience has been continuously optimized, and industry development is expected to speed up comprehensively.
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