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[Two months ago The thing I worried about happened again. In recent days, small and medium-sized stocks have continued to fall in panic, and some people even describe it as a river of blood. Many people criticized this as an artificial stock disaster caused by regulation. In this article written on April 17, I pointed out that in the current period of economic weakness, the first thing we need is to restore people's confidence and hope, and the stock market is an important part of it. Undeniable? It is true that China's stock market has suffered many disadvantages for a long time, but it should be after the recovery of the entire economy to cure the disease. But recently, It has become a trend to solve problems with ruthlessness. Say tough words and do tough things without regard to the effect. The same is true of the stock market, which creates a general panic 】
In the past two days, I have received several friends' WeChat messages in succession: I can't stand this anymore. I know they are talking about the current stock market problem. In recent days, after the New National Ninth Rule came out, the stock market, especially the small and micro businesses, fell sharply, and small and medium-sized investors can be said to be a river of blood.
At first, I tried to help explain something, such as short-term pain, Long term good, In the long run, it can promote the healthy development of the stock market. But my friend asked me in a word: Now is the time when China's economy is very fragile. If this continues, what will we do with consumption? What about confidence? How can the economy rise without consumption and confidence?
Yes, I can understand the worries of these friends very well. It can be said that now is a time when China's economy is very fragile and people's confidence is very fragile. Any wind or grass may cause great fluctuations. In this case, The introduction of a policy should not only consider the legitimacy of the policy itself, but also consider the possible impact on the overall economic situation.
The weakness of economy and confidence is highlighted in consumption.
The two most direct factors affecting confidence and wealth are income and wealth. From the perspective of income, in recent years, a number of small and medium-sized enterprises have gone bankrupt, and a considerable number of enterprises have difficulties in operation, which has led to Pay cuts, layoffs and unemployment are serious. This has a direct impact on people's income. According to the Ministry of Finance, the first two months of this year individual income tax The year-on-year decrease is 15.9%, which can show the change of personal income from one aspect.
From the perspective of wealth, a considerable number of funds and trusts have exploded in recent years, and the wealth of some investors has disappeared overnight; It is estimated that the decline in house prices has reduced the wealth carried by houses by 20-30%; The continuous decline of the stock market has also caused a strong negative wealth effect. All these factors have, to a considerable extent, severely dampened people's confidence and expectations. The result is that consumption is now depressed.
It can be said that without the warming of consumption and the recovery of confidence, it is difficult to restore the economic momentum. Therefore, No matter what policies are introduced, we cannot ignore this fundamental aspect and its impact.
Some time ago, people were talking about saving the economy, the housing market and the stock market. I had an idea at that time, There is a problem of order. It should save the stock market first and then the housing market 。 Half of the articles have been written. What do you mean? As we all know, in terms of reality, the biggest problem now is real estate. In this regard, Governments at all levels have also made great determination, and in some places they even use the expression of "dead order". and One way to save the housing market is to save the stock market first. because If the stock market can be stabilized first, the impact on people's psychological expectations will undoubtedly be huge. This is not just for real estate.
Indeed, for a period of time, the stock market seemed to have a ray of life, and the performance of small and medium-sized stocks and low price stocks was also good. Because these small and medium-sized low price stocks ordinary people Is closer. Because of this, I didn't continue to write that article. But now, we have to consider this problem.
pretty good, China's stock market has suffered from a long history of shortcomings. Now, the new nine rules are undoubtedly aimed at these accumulated disadvantages, so the idea is correct. But the problem is that even if it is the right move, the timing is also very important. As far as the current situation is concerned, What China needs to do most now Is to recuperate, stabilize the stock market, restore confidence, Instead of taking strong medicine to cure diseases.
It should be after the whole economy recovers its vitality to cure the disease with strong medicine.
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