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CITIC Securities: After the reality is gradually verified, the steady upward trend will continue
The market has entered the stock state, the global capital rebalancing impulse has cooled down, and the market based on the expected repair has ended. After the reality has been gradually verified, the steady upward trend will continue. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of excellent growth, low wave dividends and active themes in terms of configuration, and reduce the rotation game. On the one hand, the liquidity situation of the market no longer supports the market driven by purely expected repair. There is limited space for active private placement to further increase positions. ETFs continue to flow out slightly, overseas risk assets are being repaired, and the impulse of global capital rebalancing has cooled. On the other hand, the market turn is a steady upward trend driven by the gradual improvement of policies, fundamentals and risk appetite. Four factors are crucial to verify: first, the effect of the real estate policy turn and the subsequent further policy response need to be verified; second, the industrial policy aimed at optimizing the supply side needs time to gradually take effect, Third, the introduction of various reform policies at the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee is worth looking forward to. Fourth, the impact of complex geographical environment on market risk appetite needs to be digested.
Haitong strategy: short term market or staged rest; mid term high-end manufacturing representatives may become the main line
Since the market rebounded from the bottom on February 5, the industry has been moving rapidly, and the high-end manufacturing has shown a more obvious performance in this round of rebound. After this round of rise, how about the attention of the current high-end manufacturing industry? This paper analyzes the current market attention of the high-end manufacturing industry from the perspective of valuation, institutional positions, excess returns and other dimensions, and discusses how to interpret the market of related sectors in the future. In several previous reports, we pointed out that the current white horse shares are generally undervalued and underpriced. In the medium term, with the improvement of market capital and fundamentals, white horse shares are expected to become the main line of the stock market. Inside Baima, medium and high-end manufacturing with better fundamentals may become the most eye-catching direction. Since 2/5, the market has paid high attention to medium and high-end manufacturing. So where does the attention of the current medium and high-end manufacturing sector run? This will be analyzed below.
People's livelihood strategy: return to the main line
The overall situation has been decided this year, and the main line has always been there. When the transaction based on the "big reversal" of the environment gradually fades away, the return to reality pricing will return to the stage, and the convergence of early excess returns has created space for the future market of the annual main line assets. Resource products are still our preferred directions: oil, copper, coal, and resource transportation (oil transportation, dry bulk, etc.), aluminum, precious metals. The financial sector is in the "de financialization" In the world of China, if the tail risk has been resolved, the combination of rising profits and killing valuations in the past decade will turn into an opportunity of profit bottoming+valuation repair. It is recommended to focus on banks and insurance; In an environment where the domestic economic flow is repaired but the enterprises are faced with no incremental profit, dividend assets are worth allocating: railway, power, highway and gas.
Huajin strategy: TMT may still have configuration opportunities if the rebound is not completed
At present, TMT may still have configuration opportunities in the short term. In comparison with the re examination, at present, (1) the development of new quality productivity and overseas industry catalysis, and the maintenance of loose domestic liquidity make it possible for TMT to still have allocation opportunities from May to June. First, in terms of policy and industrial catalysis, June may continue to appear: first, in terms of domestic policy, before the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee in July, scientific and technological innovation and other related policies may continue to be introduced and implemented; Secondly, in terms of industry catalysis, the average profit growth of the seven overseas technology giants in the first quarter reached 78.2%, and the iterative update of overseas AI models, AI mobile phones, AI PCs and other new products may accelerate their landing. The second is to maintain loose liquidity. (2) The expectation of economic recovery, the possible recovery of TMT's mid report performance, and the catalysis of scientific and technological innovation policies also provided TMT with certain allocation opportunities in July. First, on the economic and profit fundamentals, the economy may continue to repair in July, and the TMT mid report performance may pick up. Second, in terms of policy, the Political Bureau meeting and the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee in July may further highlight policies such as scientific and technological innovation.
Central Plains strategy: the defense industry leads the rise, suggesting investors pay short-term attention to investment opportunities in power and other industries
On Friday, the A-share market experienced resistance and slight shocks. After opening low in the morning, the stock index fluctuated and fell back. The Shanghai Stock Index encountered resistance around 3130 in the middle of the day. In the afternoon, the stock index fluctuated and fell back. The electricity, power grid equipment, agriculture, animal husbandry, fishery, petroleum and coal industries in the middle of the day performed well; The performance of real estate, military industry, semiconductor, computer equipment and other industries was weak, and the Shanghai Stock Index basically showed a small fluctuation throughout the day. Current Shanghai Composite Index and GEM Index The average P/E ratio of is 13.30 times and 30.51 times respectively, which is below the median level in the past three years. The market valuation is still in a low region, suitable for medium and long-term layout. The turnover of the two markets on Friday was 769.2 billion yuan, which was below the median daily turnover in the past three years. The release of the New National Nine Rules promotes the maturity of the market and boosts the long-term confidence of the market. The export data exceeded expectations, indicating that overseas demand is resilient and China's product competitiveness is strong. With the decrease in food prices narrowing, prices also recovered to a certain extent. The management introduced a combination of real estate policies, which is expected to stabilize real estate investment and boost domestic demand, and promote economic stability. Inflation in the United States fell back, and interest rate cuts were expected ahead of schedule. With the implementation of favorable policies in China, market risk appetite is expected to increase. The current internal and external environment is conducive to the market's continued stability and improvement. In the future, the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward pattern. At the same time, we still need to pay close attention to the changes in policy, capital and external factors. We suggest that investors pay short-term attention to investment opportunities in power, grid equipment, oil and coal, utilities and other industries.
Shen Wan Hongyuan: short term lack of new offensive direction, bargain hunting, broad sense and high dividend distribution
After the correction, the direction that is more worthy of bargain hunting is still broad and high dividends, and continue to recommend electricity, household appliances and liquor, coal, oil and nonferrous metals. Overseas catalysis has played a limited role in boosting A-share technology stocks, and reiterated that the condition for an effective rebound in technology is domestic industry catalysis. There is a high probability that the real estate policy will be adopted later, and the real estate stocks will be allocated after the short-term price performance ratio is improved.
Soochow Strategy: How about the sustainability of the round of commodity and resource equity
The logic of supply is more to drive the strong price in the past, and demand is the key to the next round of market. The recovery of global demand in the first quarter has been reflected in this round of price increase, and a new round of market is expected to improve after the restart of the global credit cycle. However, the tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve in the second quarter will make the boom margin of the global manufacturing industry fall back. In April, the global manufacturing PMI has also fallen back to the contraction range. However, China is currently at a critical point in the relaxation of the real estate chain. Whether the real estate industry can be improved is the key to the recovery of demand in China, and the effect of policy implementation still needs to be observed later. Therefore, the continuous improvement of demand needs to wait for new signals, and the performance of commodities may be differentiated. Looking into the future, the rising price of non-ferrous commodities awaits more clues of demand, such as the sustained boom of global manufacturing industry; Promote the consumption of household appliances and new energy vehicles with the old for new policy; The development of emerging technologies has a demand driven effect on energy, metal and other resources; China's real estate improvement, etc. If the demand expectation is difficult to improve continuously, nonferrous metals represented by copper may face certain callback risks.
BOC strategy: grasp the second quarter long window
The market is still in the second quarter long window period. This week, the General Secretary hosted a symposium of enterprises and experts in Jinan, Shandong Province, and delivered an important speech. This is the third entrepreneur symposium hosted by the General Secretary after 2018 and 2020. After the first two symposiums, domestic economic policies have seen a relatively clear shift, whether in the real estate market, capital market or policy attitude towards private enterprises, Both of them completed the phased bottoming before and after the symposium, so this entrepreneur symposium may have a certain directional effect on market expectations on the eve of the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. We believe that the current market is still in the long window period, and the profit end mid report performance growth rate has significantly improved. Export is expected to maintain a high boom under the support of external demand. At the valuation end, policy attitudes support the gradual repair of domestic demand. The market is still in the long window period on the eve of the Third Plenary Session in the short term. In terms of style, it is expected to usher in diffusion from both ends of barbell, and domestic demand related sectors are expected to usher in phased valuation repair.
Everbright strategy: how to view the current market transaction congestion?
The market is expected to fluctuate upwards, and high dividends and procyclicality deserve long-term attention. Recently, favorable policies on real estate have occurred frequently, and the A-share market is expected to rise in shock. Since May, weak fundamentals have caused the overall market to fluctuate, and real estate is one of the drag items of weak economic fundamentals. The introduction of favorable policies for real estate is conducive to promoting high-quality development of the real estate market, boosting market confidence, and promoting the recovery of market sentiment. The A-share market is expected to continue its strong performance. In the direction of allocation, high dividends and pro cyclicality deserve long-term attention. In the current market environment, the high dividend sector is worth long-term allocation. The policy is also actively guiding dividend distribution, which will boost the situation of high dividend sectors. The transaction congestion of the dividend sector is currently high, and it can be configured after the stock price or transaction congestion falls back. In addition, the domestic economy is expected to continue to repair in the future, and the pro cyclical plate also deserves attention.
Guojun Strategy: Declining Uncertainty is the Key Driving Force for the Rise of China's Stock Market
China's stock market strategy: after winter, spring is still here. The apparent reason for this week's stock market adjustment is that the market is increasingly worried about geographical risks. We believe that although the external geography is still severe, the market has not given too much expectation in the past two to three years. More importantly, we should see that the internal uncertainty of the economy and society is declining, which is the core factor driving this round of market quotations. Unlike most prudent consensus, we believe that expectations will not be revised down and uncertainty will decline, which is the key driving force for China's stock market to rise. Different from the situation of high expectations and high positions in the stock market in 23 years, but the optimistic expectations continue to fall short, after years of adjustment and stock market volatility in early 24 years, the stock market presents the characteristics of low expectations, low expectations and low positions. The consensus with low consensus implies that there may be unexpected return space and a more positive response to marginal profits. The central finance has shifted to expansion, the real estate policy points to the crux, and the domestic demand policy is more active; A new round of system reform and innovation path is imminent. In spite of the huge uncertainty in the past, there is still behavior and thinking inertia, which is manifested by weak data and repeated stock market. However, the marginal combination of stable RMB value+domestic demand policy force+rising reform expectations makes China's asset logic smooth. In the middle of the year, investment opportunities dared to reverse layout, and the stock market fluctuated and rose.
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