1. Before the US stock market on May 22 (Wednesday), the three largest US stocks Stock index futures There were ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures fell 0.12%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.09%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.04%.
2. As of press release, Germany's DAX index fell 0.29%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.40%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.63%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.28%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.58% to USD 78.20/barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.53% to 82.44 dollars/barrel.
Market News
Wall Street's bullish view of US stocks has become the mainstream! The big motorcycle "idles a lot", and the small motorcycle becomes "the remaining short". After Michael Wilson, one of the well-known short sellers on Wall Street and Morgan Stanley equity strategist, "conceded", his colleague Andrew Slimmon, a senior portfolio manager of Morgan Stanley, believed that the US stock market would break the historical high, because a large amount of cash had not yet entered the market, indicating that investors were "afraid" of part of the cycle, and then the "FOMO" sentiment would promote the influx of hot money. Wilson raised the target level of the S&P 500 index for the next 12 months - the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 2% by June 2025, while it was previously thought that the index would fall by 15%. For other investment banks, the mainstream view is still bullish on US stocks. For example, peers of Bank of America and Wells Fargo predicted that the S&P 500 index would further rise to 5400 and 5535 points by the end of the year, respectively.
Federal Reserve Officials reiterated that more evidence of lower inflation is needed before cutting interest rates. Two Fed officials reiterated interest rate It will remain high for a longer time, emphasizing the need to be patient while the Federal Reserve waits for more evidence that inflation is declining. Loretta Mester, chairman of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, said at the symposium hosted by Raphael Bostic, chairman of the Atlanta Federal Reserve on Tuesday that she hoped to see "the inflation data of several months seems to be declining" before cutting interest rates. Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Susan Collins also attended the Atlanta Federal Reserve's financial market meeting. She said that she would like to see more evidence that the price pressure is moving towards the Federal Reserve's goal of 2%. "I think this is a time for patience. I think the data is very complicated," Collins said. "This will take longer than I thought before." Collins said this year monetary policy No voting rights.
Goldman Sachs: The dollar will be stronger in the fight against inflation, or remain strong for a longer time. Goldman Sachs believes that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates stable and other countries choose to cut interest rates, the dollar may remain strong for a longer time. The strategy team led by Kamakhya Trivedi and Joseph Briggs wrote in a report to the client: "If the Federal Reserve remains stable, but more other jurisdictions decide to implement easing policies at home, rather than waiting for the Federal Reserve, this policy difference may lead to the U.S. dollar to remain strong for a longer time." These analysts believe that Canada, the UK and the euro area will cut interest rates in June. Since this year, the US dollar has traded against all G10 countries exchange rate Both rose, and Bloomberg's index tracking the strength of the US dollar rose nearly 3%.
Bond traders cut the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut bet, and the short position of US bonds rose again. After the US April CPI data released last Wednesday was better than expected, the market bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by nearly 50 basis points this year. However, bond traders once again doubted whether the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates twice as expected by the market. The swap market currently suggests that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by about 40 basis points by the end of this year, and the first cut will be in November. The position situation shows that with the bond yield rising in recent days, new short bets have been re established. At the same time, the long position in US treasury bonds has been partially cleared. Traders remained cautious, waiting for more data to confirm that inflation is moving in the right direction, and waiting for the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May to be released on Wednesday to provide new clues about the policy path of the Federal Reserve.
Biden plans to release 1 million barrels of gasoline before the US Independence Day to reduce oil prices. The Biden government will release 1 million barrels of gasoline from the northeastern reserves of the United States to reduce the fuel prices at gas stations before the July 4 Independence Day holiday and the summer driving season. Energy Minister Jennifer Granholm said in a statement on Tuesday: "By strategically releasing this reserve between Memorial Day and July 4, we will ensure that there is sufficient supply to flow to the three states (regions) and the northeast when people need it most." As the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut production, As well as the fear that the Israel Hamas war will lead to a broader conflict in the Middle East, leading to supply disruption and rising oil prices, gasoline futures have risen by 19% this year. The rise in energy prices sparked speculation in April that the Biden administration might use the strategic oil reserves of Texas and Louisiana before the November presidential election.
Individual stock news
Vipshop (VIPS. US) Q1 Net profit The year-on-year growth rate was 24.6%, and the year-on-year growth rate of GMV was 8.0%. Vipshop Q1's total net revenue was 27.6 billion yuan, up 0.4% year on year, which was lower than the market expectation; Net profit attributable to shareholders of the Company was 2.3 billion yuan, up 24.6% year on year; After dilution, the income per ADS was 4.18 yuan, compared with 3.16 yuan in the same period last year. Non GAAP's net profit attributable to shareholders of the company was 2.6 billion yuan, up 24.8% year on year. After dilution, the income per ADS was 4.66 yuan, compared with 3.52 yuan in the same period last year, which exceeded the expected market. In the first quarter, GMV increased by 8.0% year on year, from 48.5 billion yuan in the same period of last year to 52.4 billion yuan. Gross profit increased by 10.9% year on year, from 5.9 billion yuan in the same period of last year to 6.5 billion yuan. The number of active customers was 43.1 million, compared with 43.7 million in the same period last year. The total order volume was 178.5 million, compared with 184.4 million in the same period last year. Looking forward to the second quarter, Vipshop expects its total net revenue to be between 26.5 billion yuan and 27.9 billion yuan, down about 5% to 0% year on year.
YSG. US released its first quarterly report: revenue of 773 million yuan, achieving double growth in cosmetics and skin care. Yixian E-Commerce's revenue increased to 773 million yuan in the first quarter, which was in line with the previous company's revenue guidance and continued its growth trajectory. Among them, the skin care business has maintained a healthy and sustainable growth. In the first quarter of 2024, the revenue will reach 245 million yuan, accounting for 31.7% of the total revenue. Up to now, the skin care business has achieved a revenue ratio of more than 30% for eight consecutive quarters, and the revenue structure has been continuously optimized. In addition, the cosmetics business continued to enrich the product layout, with a 3.2% year-on-year increase in revenue, returning to the track of value growth. Benefiting from the deepening of strategic transformation, the company's hematopoietic capacity continued to improve. The gross profit rate in the first quarter reached 77.7%, up 3.4 percentage points year on year. During the reporting period, Yixian E-commerce continued to increase its R&D investment and consolidate its R&D innovation.
New quarterly financial report of Pinduoduo (PDD. US): The business is still in a growth period, and will invest more in deepening high-quality development. Pinduoduo Group achieved revenue of 86.8 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 131% year on year. 2024 is an important year for Pinduoduo Group to continue to deepen its high-quality development strategy, and also a "consumption promotion year" determined by the Ministry of Commerce. Pinduoduo responded positively. In the first quarter, a series of measures were launched to help businesses, benefit the people, and make profits during festivals such as the Spring Festival. While guiding high-quality consumption, it cooperated with quality merchants to focus on the theme of "national fashion brand" to enrich high-quality supply, improve high-quality ecology, and drive steady growth of performance through policies and activities.
The first quarter profit of TGT. US failed to meet expectations, and its share price fell. Target shares fell 7.7% in pre market trading on Wednesday, hitting a three-month low. This decline was due to the fact that the first quarter financial report of this well-known discount retailer showed that the profit did not meet market expectations, mainly due to weak sales of non essential goods. According to the financial report, Target's net income in the first quarter fell slightly to $942 million, equivalent to $2.03 per share, from $950 million or $2.05 per share in the same period last year. This number failed to reach the FactSet pair Earnings per share $2.06. In addition, the company's total revenue decreased by 3.1% year-on-year to $24.53 billion, although slightly higher than the $24.52 billion consensus of FactSet. Same store sales also fell by 3.7%, in line with expectations. Despite the challenges, Target's gross margin actually increased from 26.3% to 27.7%.
NVDA. US performance is not only about the trend of technology stocks! This year's "crazy" power stocks are also at stake. Nvidia, the AI chip overlord who was awarded the title of "the most important stock in the earth" by Gao Sheng, a big bank on Wall Street, will release the company's performance data for the first fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2025 and its performance outlook for the next fiscal quarter in the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time, and hold a performance teleconference at about 5 a.m. This financial report of Nvidia is undoubtedly related to the belief of global technology stock investors in AI. Its financial report data and the approximate rate of its performance outlook for the next fiscal quarter directly determine the stock price momentum of global technology stocks in the short and medium term at least. However, it is worth noting that this time, investors behind the soaring electricity and renewable energy stocks this year also focused on Nvidia's financial report. Analysts generally expect Nvidia's total revenue in the first fiscal quarter to be about $24.6 billion, an increase of more than 240% year on year; Earnings per share increased 418% year on year to $5.60.
Important economic data and event forecast
22:00 Beijing time: the annual total number of existing housing sales in the United States in April (10000 households).
22:30 Beijing time: the US EIA natural gas inventory changes (100 million cubic feet) as of the week of May 17, and the US EIA crude oil inventory changes (10000 barrels) as of the week of May 17.
At 21:40 Beijing time, in 2025, the FOMC Voting Committee and the Chairman of the Chicago Federal Reserve, Gusby, delivered an opening speech at an event.
At 02:00 a.m. Beijing time the next day, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.
Performance forecast
Thursday morning: NVDA. US, SNPS. US, Snowflake (SNOW US)、 Sound Network (API.US)
Before Thursday's market: Netease (NTES. US), Youdao, BEKE. US, BILI. US, Weibo (WB. US), Yiyao (YI. US)
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