The price of copper futures in the United States, which shocked the international market, is still continuing. Last week, the price of copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) soared to a record high. The main July contract closed at $11200 per ton last Friday, up more than 9% in a single week.
Citigroup According to the research report, copper futures of COMEX and London Metal Exchange (LME) have attracted up to 25 billion dollars (about 180 billion yuan) of speculative long funds.
With COMEX copper prices soaring, short funds are under great pressure. Last week, market rumors said that commodity traders including Trafigura and IXM were actively looking for spot delivery, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry On May 17, it clarified the rumors of its company IXM, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry The share price stabilized after two consecutive days of sharp decline.
Copper futures staged a forced market
On May 17, US time, the closing price of COMEX copper's main July contract reached US $5.0825 per pound, equivalent to US $11200 per ton, an increase of 4.22%, 9.01% in a single week and 30.60% in the year.
The increase of margin by the Exchange ignited a fire for the further rise of the market. The increase of margin raised the cost of the long short confrontation and aggravated the departure of some short positions. On May 16, the operating agency of COMEX Exchange—— Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised the margin requirement for copper futures trading, directly requiring the margin to be raised by 500 dollars to 5000 dollars per hand, and took effect after the close of the day.
From the closing data, the contract position in July was still at a high level, only falling from 188800 on May 14 to 159100 on May 17, equivalent to about 1.81 million tons of refined copper.
Compared with the market position size, the stock receipt size of the exchange is relatively small. according to CICC According to the analysis of research data, COMEX copper inventory has dropped from nearly 30000 tons in early April to 20000 tons on May 17, and the inventory is at a low level. At the same time, COMEX copper delivery brands are relatively limited and the risk of closing positions is high. Compared with the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the London Metal Exchange (LME), COMEX does not accept the delivery of Chinese brand copper, and Russian copper cannot be used for delivery, resulting in the inability to rapidly increase inventory warehouse receipts. At present, 25 Chinese copper enterprises have registered among LME's delivery brands.
"The market contradiction will continue. Unless the short sellers voluntarily admit defeat and leave the market or trade all policy interventions, COMEX copper prices will continue to be strong." Liu Peiyang, head of the Industrial Products Group of Zhongyuan Futures Research Institute, said.
Last week, the market spread that commodity traders including Trafigura and IXM were affected by short selling pressure and were seeking to buy copper in the spot market to register for delivery of warehouse receipts. The price of copper in the spot market of the United States has exceeded 12000 dollars per ton, even higher than the price of copper futures in New York. According to the research of Woodmac, a research organization, due to the tight supply of copper concentrate, the Red Sea incident this year and the collapse of the Baltimore Bridge in the United States affected logistics, the US spot premium in the first four months of this year rose slightly from 8 cents/pound to 8.5 cents/pound.
In view of the market rumors about the short order of IXM in COMEX copper market, A-share listed companies Luoyang Molybdenum Industry Urgently clarify that the wholly-owned subsidiary IXM, as an important global commodity trader, implements 100% hedging operations for all metal trade and strictly manages price risk.
Previously, influenced by rumors, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry The share price fell 3.49% on May 15, 5.04% on May 16 and 0.23% on May 17. Since this year, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry The increase reached 67.12%. The market tracking of CSI Non ferrous metals The most active Non ferrous metals ETF (159871) also rose by 15.82% this year.
Speculative long capital scale
Increase to $25 billion
Citigroup Analyst Max Leiden said in a research report, "We expect that the premium of COMEX copper to LME will narrow as arbitrageurs ship physical copper to the United States, but this will take time."
With COMEX copper futures in the air, Shanghai Copper Copper and LME copper are also rising, but the range is small. Last week, COMEX copper futures rose 9.26% in a single week, while LME copper rose 6.72%, while Shanghai copper's main July contract rose only 3.77%. The price difference between US copper and London copper once widened to 1100 US dollars/ton, a record.
However, bullish positions in the LME market are also rising rapidly. Citigroup According to the above report, since February, COMEX and LME copper futures have attracted up to 25 billion dollars (about 180 billion yuan) of speculative long funds. Moreover, the long positions of investment funds in LME copper contracts have recently reached 99215, equivalent to nearly 2.4 million tons, which is the highest bullish position since LME began to release data in 2018.
Bulls' confidence was further strengthened from mid April. On April 13, the United States and the United Kingdom announced the implementation of new trade restrictions on aluminum, copper and nickel produced in Russia. According to the new regulations, LME and CME futures exchanges are not allowed to use aluminum, copper and nickel produced in Russia on or after April 13.
This ban made speculative long positions targeted at the US copper futures market, and built positions on a large scale before the ban was issued. According to the data of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of April 2, COMEX copper speculative net long positions were only 15362, while as of the week of April 9, COMEX copper speculators' net long positions increased by 35325 to 50687, which was a big position building several days before the ban was issued on April 13. By the week of April 16, COMEX copper net long position reached 52950 contracts, a new high in more than two years. As of the week ended May 14, COMEX copper speculators increased net long positions by 6819 to 72785.
"The short funds of the contract in July will either be delivered in cash or the contract will be extended to the far month contract." A senior person in the domestic futures industry said that the extension of the US copper contract is also a surrender. Because the far month contract with better liquidity is the September contract, and the price of the July contract was once nearly 30 cents/pound higher than that of the September contract. This price difference is the price that bears have to pay.
Industrial metals
and noble metal Continuous rise
Stimulated by the rising price of copper, industrial metals rose as a whole last Friday, and LME nickel hit a new nine month high, Zinc valence Georgia set a new 15 month high. COMEX silver Futures prices rose 6.36% on a single day, hitting an 11 year high. COMEX gold The futures settlement price reached 2417 US dollars/ounce, a new record high.
"After the short-term speculative sentiment falls back, the copper price may have a callback risk. But in the long run, the upward trend of copper price remains unchanged." CICC Guo Chaohui's team believes that, from the perspective of fundamentals, the contradiction that the tight supply of copper ore forces smelters to reduce production passively is still being interpreted. Until this contradiction is resolved, as long as the global manufacturing industry and new energy The industry demand is expected to be better, and the upward trend of copper price remains unchanged. In the medium and long term, copper mine and global trade may be in three long-term trends: first, resource protectionism and environmentalism are on the rise; Secondly, geography affects the decline of supply efficiency and the rise of cost; Third, capital expenditure support continued to be low. The above three medium - and long-term supply problems are irreversible and difficult to solve in the short term. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to the possible impact of supply risk differentiation between regions on pricing in different regions, and the cross market price difference hub may widen.
carlyle group Jeff Currie, chief strategic officer of the Energy Path Team, said in an interview with the media that the wave of electrification is driving the growth of copper demand, whether it is electric vehicles or support artificial intelligence Of Data Center , or the expansion of power grid facilities to meet the surging demand for electricity, are accelerating worldwide. This is the most attractive deal he has seen in his career for many years.
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