High Priest of Alpha Workshop
After the IPO of the U.S. stock market of Maverick Electric (NIU), it did not stir up too many waves. After all, the number of IPOs of new Internet car makers this year has been large, and many VC firms are looking for exit paths for their own projects, while American stocks and H shares with low barriers have become very good places.
A new force company in car manufacturing, no matter how Internet genes are superimposed, car manufacturing is still manufacturing in the final analysis.
The first characteristic of manufacturing industry is heavy capital expenditure, which requires factories to provide manufacturing processes, technical output, and extremely troublesome supply chain management processes;
Secondly, the manufacturing industry needs to meet the scale effect. If the scale is not large enough, the cost of each product will be very high, resulting in extremely low profit margins;
Finally, a company needs to expand channels and invest in R&D for its products, so its products need to maintain a good competitive advantage and broaden its monopoly; Because products are easy to imitate, it is difficult for the manufacturing industry to achieve absolute monopoly. Generally speaking, in the long run, most manufacturing companies are difficult to maintain high profit margins.
When we use the above three standards to see: production of 32 million electric vehicles, according to the sales volume of Xiaoniu electric vehicles, the current total market share is less than 1%; When the share is very small, the unavoidable cost will be very high.
As a response strategy to the new force of Internet car making, Mavericks chose to improve the pricing of product portfolio, take the high-end route, and then choose the Tesla route. Through product differentiation, gradually expand sales, reduce costs, and finally become an industry monopoly.
At present, Mavericks also involves supply chain management, sales network management, and R&D investment. These three expenses inevitably point to the final loss.
The high pricing did not lead to the high gross profit rate of Mavericks, on the contrary, its gross profit rate has been unsatisfactory. Even with growth, 14% of gross profit is not enough to support a manufacturing company in the whole industry chain.
There are many imitators of Tesla, but none of them have made Tesla.
According to the prospectus, Xiaoniu Electric's net revenue in the first half of 2018 was 557 million yuan, higher than 285 million yuan in the same period of 2017, 769 million yuan in 2017, 557 million yuan in 2016, while its gross profit in the first half of 2018 was 79.894 million yuan, higher than 57.314 million yuan in the same period, and 54.698 million yuan in 2017, higher than 67.475 million yuan in the same period
At least, after IPO financing, it at least first alleviated the capital thirst of Xiaoniu Electric Vehicle for stock incentive; The free cash flow of Xiaoniu Electric Vehicle, which is not included in stock compensation, has become positive for six consecutive quarters; It can be seen from the cash flow statement that although the profit situation is negative after the stock compensation, the Mavericks realized the initial positive cash flow by occupying the supplier's cash flow.
Mavericks are now valued at about $600 million, and free cash flow is only about 60 million yuan. P/CF free cash flow multiple is close to 70 times. I'm afraid the same part can only be supported by stories. However, the valuation of entrepreneurial companies before the formation of a closed loop should not be taken too seriously. According to the practice, the stock after IPO is mainly used to pay for the stock incentive of the founding team.
There is no manufacturing gene. Infiltrating in the red sea of manufacturing, there is still a long way to go for Xiaoniu Electric Vehicle to form a closed-loop business.
Compared with the bland electric two wheeled vehicle manufacturing industry, the most remarkable thing about the Xiaoniu electric vehicle is Li Yinan, the genius of the former founder of Huawei. Li Yinan, the last entrepreneur in 2015, created Xiaoniu Electric.
However, he started his business in April of that year and was detained by the Shenzhen Public Security Bureau in June on suspicion of insider trading. This news was not made public at that time. On June 15, Jingdong even completed the 72 million crowdfunding myth.
It was only after he was released from prison last year that Li Yinan resigned from his position in the company, became a shareholder of the company, and appointed a new CEO, Li Yan. At the time of bell ringing, Li Yinan stood behind him and watched Li Yan ring the bell. At that moment, I looked lonely.
Maybe, from a talented vice president of Huawei to the IPO of the founding company NASDAQ, Li Yinan guessed the beginning and the end. He just didn't think of the scale of the middle jail and the Mavericks today.
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