Ten strategies of securities dealers: the spring of such assets is coming! A-share is expected to go out of a round of "slow bull"

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[Strategies of Top Ten Securities Firms: Spring of such assets is coming! A-share is expected to go out of a round of "slow bull"] citic securities : The real estate policy boosted expectations and continued the steady upward trend; CICC : The policy increase drives the expected repair continuation; Huatai Securities : Properly reduce the dividend position and find the intersection of policy driven and performance improvement; industrial securities : After the implementation of the real estate policy, it is the spring of core assets.

　　 citic securities : The real estate policy boosted expectations, and the steady upward trend continued

With the disclosure of economic data in April, the bottom of the fundamentals has been clear, and the real estate policy has been launched in multiple lines to support the bottom of the real estate chain, boosting economic expectations in the second half of the year, further promoting market risk appetite, and the budding optimism continues to accumulate, The A-share market is expected to continue its steady upward trend. It is suggested to continue to focus on the three main lines of growth, low wave dividends and active themes, reduce the round trading game, and focus on the varieties that intersect with the real estate chain in the short term.

First of all, the real estate policy has been launched in multiple lines, and the policy objective has changed from investment oriented to price stabilizing. With the release of demand from financial support and purchase restriction liberalization, it is expected that the housing prices in core cities are expected to stabilize in the middle of the year, and with the continuation of the housing stock digestion policy, the industrial dilemma of the real estate industry is expected to gradually improve. Secondly, the domestic economy is operating steadily as a whole, and the real estate policy underpins the real estate chain. Together with the acceleration of government financing, it will improve the pressure on the investment side and boost economic expectations in the second half of the year. Finally, the real estate policy was launched in multiple lines to boost expectations. Behind the foreign capital return, China's assets were more optimistic. The implementation of the "National Nine Rules" gradually improved the market ecology. All kinds of investors' optimism will continue to accumulate, and the A-share market is expected to continue its steady upward trend.

　　 CICC : Policy increase drives expected repair continuation

Recently, there have been positive changes in policies related to real estate. The central bank has adjusted the down payment ratio for house purchase, the lower limit of loan interest rate and the interest rate for provident fund loans; On May 17, the nationwide video conference on housing guarantee and delivery was held. Some provinces and cities carried out the purchase of commercial housing by local governments as public rental housing, which helped alleviate the current problems of poor sales and declining turnover rate of housing enterprises. The positive signal released by the policy is conducive to improving investors' risk appetite. The improvement of external demand is an important highlight in the economic data, and the strong export has a positive impact on industrial added value and manufacturing investment. At the end of April, the Political Bureau held a meeting to express its position of "sticking to the momentum" and "avoiding tightening before loosening". The implementation of early macro policies is conducive to improving investors' expectations of economic fundamentals.

Judging from the main types of A-share investors, the current position of private equity investors is still at a historical low. Foreign capital has recently returned, but the allocation of Chinese assets is still low, which may still have potential financial support for the market.

In terms of configuration, the real estate chain benefited from the recent event catalysis to usher in the phased performance, and the related industrial chains are generally expected to be low and are expected to be repaired in the phase, but the sustainability depends on the strength and pace of policy implementation. The TMT field, driven by the expectation of scientific and technological progress and catalyzed by policies related to new quality productivity, is expected to perform relatively in the medium term; new energy Such green sectors focus on the marginal changes of recent industrial policies, which helps to reverse investors' expectations.

　　 Huatai Securities : Properly reduce dividend position and find the intersection of policy driven and performance improvement

In the first four trading days of last week, the market fluctuated and fell back. On Friday, the land lost was recovered under the property policy that exceeded expectations. Structurally, the industry rotation was accelerated and policy transactions were heated up. We summarize the following observations: in April, the economic data structure continued to differentiate, the scissors gap between industry/export and consumption widened, and the resilience of mass consumption was stronger than high-end consumption; 2. The strength of the real estate policy exceeded expectations, and the effect was to be tested, from the end of the policy to the end of the sales of real estate/ Insurance Dominant, but the difference between this round and the previous real estate market may lie in that the prosperity of some varieties in the later cycle is the first to recover after the renewal cycle and external demand pull; 3. From both macro and micro perspectives, the export chain boom has a certain sustainability, and the chips are not crowded yet, but short-term super rising varieties may have callback pressure.

In terms of allocation, appropriately reduce the dividend position, and increase the allocation of light industry/chemical fiber with the intersection of policy driven and performance improvement/ Chemical raw materials / Insurance /Public consumption in Hong Kong stocks. Since the beginning of February, the A-share risk premium has fallen back to near the rolling 1-year average, which may fluctuate or increase. The current main upward risk comes from the "pendulum regression" of the Fed's interest rate reduction expectations under the real estate policy exceeding expectations and the US inflation cooling. From the institutional perspective, it is difficult to participate in the policy game, and it is necessary to take into account both odds and wins, In terms of allocation: 1. Multiple internal and external advantages or boosting short-term risk appetite, appropriately reducing dividend positions, and continuing to make high and low cut and AH cut in combination with transaction congestion and AH premium; 2. The intersection of policy driven allocation and performance improvement, including ① policy+export driven light industry; ② Policy driven and capacity reduced chemical fiber Chemical raw materials ；③ Benefiting from the improvement of asset side and liability side Insurance ；④ Public consumption in Hong Kong stocks with strong pro cyclical attribute and rising trend of landscape style.

　　 Haitong Securities : Short term policies may catalyze the periodic repair of the real estate chain. In the medium term, high-end manufacturing or the main line of the stock market

After the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 30, the supply and demand policies of real estate were put into full force, and the data repair of real estate fundamentals may be promoted in the short term. Since February 5, the stock market has rebounded for the first time after the bottom, but the fundamentals are not yet stable, so we need to pay attention to policy strength and data repair in the future. Short term policies may catalyze the periodic repair of the property chain. In the medium term, high-end manufacturing with better fundamentals or the main line of the stock market.

　　 CSC negotiable securities : Give priority to stability, and stop when it is good

The real estate purchase and storage policy was implemented, and the down payment and interest rate were cut more than expected to meet the demand. The bond market responded calmly, and the stock market responded positively. Recently, the domestic production end has been repaired, but the domestic demand is weak as a whole. There are uncertainties in the US China relations in the US election year, and the supply and demand relationship in the A-share market has changed marginally in the near future. From a comprehensive perspective, we believe that the strategic attitude towards A-share is still optimistic, the tactical attitude should not be too radical in the short term, and the focus should be on stability. In terms of trading, we can take the attitude of taking a good turn.

Structurally, we continue to focus on the improvement of export orders and the incremental effect of shipping, such as construction machinery , leading household appliances, etc. Pay attention to dividend and nonferrous metals on bargain hunting.

　　 China Merchants Securities : Focus on high ROE and high FCF leaders

Since this year, the speed of industry and mainline rotation has significantly accelerated, and the range of excess returns of industry and mainline has significantly narrowed. It is related to the current lack of high prosperity direction, increased policy strength and efficiency, investor sentiment and risk preference, and the capital environment of stock game. However, there is a hidden line behind the industry's main line of rotation: excess returns are steadily increasing. High ROE and high FCF leaders can become the current style strategy of stable dominance in the context of stable economic profits, accelerated improvement of free cash flow of enterprises, and intensified asset shortage.

　　 industrial securities : After the implementation of the real estate policy, it is the spring of core assets

After the implementation of the real estate policy, it is the spring of core assets. First, with the implementation of policies, the real estate sector is expected to gradually stabilize. This round of economic recovery may be more moderate, rather than a "V-shaped" reversal. In this context, core assets, as a benchmark leader with competitive advantages in various industries, will show significant excess returns. Secondly, with the improvement of economic expectations, core assets have both current certainty and certain growth, and are expected to become the direction of consensus building.

Core assets of the new era: "15+3" (about 15% growth rate+3% dividend yield). First, in the era of high quality, "15% growth rate" has become the leader, and high prosperity needs to find stability downward. Second, in the era of high dividends, "3% dividend yield" will no longer be scarce, and high dividends need to find flexibility. Third, in the era of high win rate investment, "15+3" assets imply a high ROE level and a certain return.

　　 Huaan Securities : The upward direction of market shocks remains unchanged, and configuration concerns Seesaw Capital return after board effect

It is expected that the market will still maintain a volatile upward trend. On the one hand, despite the weak economic and financial data in April, the overall recovery channel is still in progress, and high-frequency data has been expected before, with limited marginal impact on the market. On the other hand, after the overall positive policy setting of the Politburo meeting, the recent property policy is more intensive than expected and loose, and the central bank's adjustment of housing loan policy is not weak, which is expected to further boost the market's confidence in the speed and strength of follow-up policies.

In terms of future market allocation, the four main lines still have allocation value, namely, the first main line is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, which has a good performance at present and is still a good medium and long-term allocation opportunity; The second main line is that there are boom or performance supporting varieties, and the funds are expected to fall back after the end of the seesaw effect of real estate. Including industrial metals, electricity, etc., these sectors are still in high prosperity; The third main line is high elastic growth. military project Greater flexibility when market sentiment improves; Pan TMT plate is waiting for the further boost of market risk appetite or the arrival of heavy catalyst; Article 4 The theme is "new quality productivity" semiconductor Equipment special equipment , environmental protection equipment Industrial machine 、 robot Equal direction.

　　 People's livelihood negotiable securities : We should be more optimistic about resources and increase opportunities in the big financial sector

In the process of "getting rid of emptiness and moving into reality", China and the United States have made common changes: in order to maintain financial stability, they have made room for the rise of the price of physical assets. After a short loss in relative returns, the logic of resource stocks has been strengthened: copper, coal, aluminum and noble metal , oil and resource transportation (oil transportation, dry bulk transportation, etc.).

In the financial sector in the "de financialization" world, if the tail risk has been resolved, the combination of rising profits and killing valuations in the past decade will turn into opportunities for profit bottoming and valuation repair: bank , insurance and real estate; The aggregate economy continued to recover, and opportunities were found in the stabilizing demand and clearing structure: aviation construction machinery , chemical industry leader, etc; China's physical workload will continue to be repaired, but I'm afraid the interest rate will not rise significantly, and the corresponding dividend assets are still worthy of allocation: railways, roads, hydropower and Gas 。

　　 West China Securities : Under the background of credit extension, A-share is expected to go out of a round of "slow"

Since May, A-share Hong Kong shares have continued to strengthen, mainly reflecting the optimistic expectations of domestic and foreign investors on "promoting reform and expanding demand". After the introduction of the "May 17" real estate package of new policies, the space for policy making in different cities has been opened again. The new policies are not only conducive to releasing some demand, but more importantly, they have clearly defined the policy signal of "resolving risks in the real estate field". The subsequent supporting policies for the property market in various regions are expected to continue to be implemented, and there is room for reducing the reserve ratio and interest rate, which is conducive to supporting investors' risk appetite and driving the domestic equity market up in shock.

In terms of industry allocation: some pro cyclical sectors that benefit from the expected improvement of real estate and have less chip pressure have room for valuation repair; At the thematic level, pay attention to the Low altitude economy Etc.

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Editor in charge: Wang Han