"Mao Wu Lu" rare trading, cycle stocks suddenly collapsed! Has the wind changed? Urgent interpretation of 12 public funds

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Reporter Zhang Yanbei

The king returns.

On September 27, liquor stocks, which had been silent for a long time, rebounded sharply. The sector index once soared by more than 9%, and the overall market value of the sector increased by about 400 billion yuan. Cyclic stocks fell across the board. The chemical industry was the hardest hit area, and nonferrous metals, steel and coal also suffered heavy losses.

The reporter interviewed more than ten fund companies and public offering investment researchers after hours in view of the soaring of liquor plate and the continuous adjustment of cyclical stocks. The interviewed public offerings generally believe that the liquor sector is mostly oversold and rebounded, in addition, it is also affected by the capital position adjustment behavior. Cyclical stocks are under pressure from falling demand, and the risk of falling prices of some products is increased. At the same time, power and production restrictions and other related policy arrangements have also impacted relevant resource-based enterprises and manufacturing industries.

Looking ahead to the future, fund managers are optimistic about the investment value of liquor for a long time. In the fourth quarter, the valuation of high-quality consumer goods has fallen back to a reasonable or even undervalued region, and more and more companies have shown good cost performance.

For pro cyclical industries, investors are more cautious. Except for some subdivisions driven by strong growth of new energy demand or with long-term supply constraints, it is expected that the state of large excess returns may have ended.

　　 Multi factor resonance such as valuation, capital and news

　　 Drive the rare rise of liquor

On Monday, the liquor sector saw a rare surge. In the view of many public offering investment researchers, valuation, fundamentals and emotional catalysis are all the reasons for the strong performance of the liquor sector.

Specifically, the liquor sector on September 27 Wuliangye 、 Luzhou Laojiao Wait for 7 stocks to go up and down, Guizhou Moutai It was the first time since 2016 that the trading volume exceeded 23.2 billion. As a matter of fact, the CITIC liquor index soared by more than 8%. If we count last Friday, the index has soared by more than 10% in two days, showing the trend of plucking onions from dry land.

Yang Jianhua, deputy general manager and investment director of Great Wall Fund, said that today's strong return of liquor was supported by multi-level logic. First of all, liquor has been adjusted for a long time since February this year, and its valuation has had a high cost performance ratio; In addition to the fact that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has not yet been implemented, there are still some uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment. With its good business model and reasonable valuation level, Baijiu has a strong attraction for funds with risk aversion.

"Second, as the current epidemic prevention and control measures are appropriate, the risk of diffusion is gradually receding, and the dynamic sales data of liquor in the mid autumn consumption boom is better than expected, the market is also optimistic about the dynamic sales of liquor during the National Day holiday. Third, the industry also welcomed some good news. The news of the arrival of core managers of some leading liquor enterprises and the implementation of equity incentive plans made the market more optimistic about the improvement of the internal governance structure and external communication of related companies. " He said.

In terms of valuation, Xie Yi, the fund manager of Nord Fund, also believes that liquor and other consumer sectors have undergone significant correction in valuation, and the current valuation is close to reasonable.

Chen Jianjun, the consumption theme fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin, also said that today's rebound of liquor was more of an oversold rebound. The market was overly pessimistic about liquor in the early stage, which led to an irrational decline. In fact, the mid report of mainstream liquor showed that the performance was almost not lower than expected, but was more than expected. Now it is the repair of pessimism.

Li Wenbin of Wanjia Fund said frankly, "The sharp rise of liquor shares has something to do with the large decline of food and beverage stocks since this year, especially since the second quarter, so there has been a relatively obvious rebound in the trading days in recent years. From the fundamental point of view, food and beverage stocks, especially liquor, are better than the pessimistic expectations of the market, so there is a certain need for valuation repair."

Tongtai Fund also said that in addition to the stable performance of liquor in the mid autumn peak season, there is still strong demand for high-end and secondary high-end products, and the performance completion rate of leading enterprises is high. As the National Day approaches, the attention of the industry has increased. Against the background of the early oversold, the wine industry is facing a short-term valuation repair.

Zou Yun, fund manager of Cinda Bank of Australia, believes that "from the perspective of quarterly sales and performance, high-end liquors and some secondary high-end liquors are growing fast, and the performance is also supported. The statements of the three giants of high-end liquors and equity incentives ignited the enthusiasm of the market."

In addition, the seesaw effect of funds was also an important factor in the strong performance of the liquor sector on Monday. Zhang Yuxiang, Penghua Fund, said that looking back on the early trend of A-share, resources, manufacturing and other sectors were concerned by many market funds. Recently, many places across the country have introduced relevant policy arrangements such as power and production restrictions, which have affected relevant resource-based enterprises and manufacturing industries to some extent, and some funds have returned to consumption and other stable growth sectors.

"For the wine sector, whether it is the disclosure of the Chinese report or the performance expectations of the institutions for the third quarter report, it can basically maintain a stable growth, and some second and third tier wine companies even outperformed expectations. In the early decline process, the selling pressure of the wine sector gradually faded. Therefore, the influx of market funds today has formed a strong driving force for the plate market. " Zhang Yuxiang said.

From the perspective of funds, Tongtai Fund also believes that some theme funds have style drift, and there is a strong demand for changing positions before the announcement of positions at the end of the quarter; At the same time, in the cyclical sector, which has seen a high recent increase, under the background of dual control of energy consumption, provinces have introduced measures to limit production. The uncertainty of production reduction of cyclical companies is large, and the seesaw effect of funds has also brought about a surge in defensive liquor stocks today.

In addition, Tongtai Fund also said that the driving effect of leading stocks also boosted today's market sentiment.

Zou Yun, the fund manager of Cinda Australia Bank, introduced that, first, on September 24, an extraordinary shareholders' meeting was held in Maotai, Guizhou. Ding Xiongjun became the new chairman of the board. Chairman Ding had clear reform ideas for the future strategic planning, marketing system, price system and market-oriented development of Maotai, which greatly improved investor confidence.

Second, Wuliangye has also received investors' research recently. The company's leaders have frankly communicated with investors from the aspects of terminal dynamic marketing, classic Wuliangye strategic planning, recent policy supervision, and the company's development ideas, with good results. According to the feedback from dealers around the country, the demand in some regions was flat, and the expected decline was relatively low, but the actual result was better than expected.

"Third, on September 27, Luzhou Laojiao issued equity incentive. The equity incentive was launched earlier than expected, and the incentive plan has a wide coverage, which has greatly mobilized the enthusiasm of employees and laid a good foundation for the growth of the next three years." Zou Yun said in detail.

It is worth noting that the latest investment attraction with a scale of more than 65.8 billion yuan is aimed at the soaring liquor shares Chinese liquor index Hou Hao, the fund manager, issued a paper in the middle of the session that the leading liquor producers released positive signals, and some concerns about the industry could be more optimistic in the short term. The liquor sector still needs to track the changes in dynamic sales and price system, as well as the changes in high-end liquor terminal prices.

He suggested that the expectation of this year should be lowered moderately, waiting for the air outlet, and the time should be extended to see that the liquor sector still has good configuration value under the trend of consumption upgrading and concentration improvement.

　　 Whether the market style can be switched remains to be confirmed

　　 Short term fluctuations may remain

"Cycle or consumption?" In this year's A-share market, this issue has always been a topic of discussion for investors. With the "return of the king" of liquor companies, this topic once again came to the forefront on Monday. In the opinion of many interviewees, whether the market style can be switched remains to be confirmed. They also believe that the so-called switching is driven by the medium and long term fundamentals of the sector and expectations that are not reflected in the stock price. It is not important to switch styles, but it is important to stick to your own style and seize investment opportunities in the structural market.

Huafu Fund said that recently, there has been a relatively obvious "style switch" in the market, and the strong cyclical sector in the early period has seen a significant callback, while the pharmaceutical, food and beverage sectors that have made more adjustments in the early period have rebounded, with significant relative returns, the overall market has fluctuated, and the sector differentiation has intensified. At present, the market still has no obvious consistency with the future style, and is still in the stage of looking for the future main line, and short-term fluctuations may be maintained.

Turning to the switch of market style, Wu Yue, the director of Harvest Fund's big consumption, analyzed that the overall market is now focused on high-end manufacturing, such as new energy, photovoltaic, semiconductor, etc. These industries have industrial trends and national policy orientation. At the same time, this year is a very typical stock market with insufficient loose capital. In this context, once a very extreme direction appears, the capital stock in the market will begin to move comprehensively. There is no doubt that at this time, both domestic and foreign investors regard consumption as a replacement machine and put most of their positions in these new directions. This is the general situation deduced from the past month.

"The extreme differentiation may lead to the extreme return. The decline of the liquor sector in 2021 is more due to the transformation of investors' investment style after a substantial increase last year. The fundamentals of liquor companies have not changed significantly. The market has always changed a lot. It is still worth observing whether it will be the return of the king of consumer stocks represented by liquor in the future. However, in the future, liquor segment circuits will face different competition patterns, and high-end and super high-end circuits will have more advantages. The consumer sector is still a long-term and eternal track. " Wu Yue further expressed.

Zhang Yuxiang of Penghua Fund judged that in the short and medium term, whether the market style can be switched remains to be confirmed; The effective recovery of social zero consumption data remains to be observed; The data of double section dynamic sales also need to be released after the festival, which also potentially constitutes the uncertainty of investment in the wine sector.

Tongtai Fund also said that liquor stocks rose sharply today, and it is hard to say that the switching of market style may be more due to the demand for capital position adjustment at the end of the quarter and the release of short-term sentiment.

As for whether the market style is switched, Li Wenbin of Wanjia Fund believes that the key is to judge the change direction of future earnings expectations of current cycle stocks and consumer stocks. "We believe that from the perspective of the current year to the end of the year, although the downward pressure on the economy is indeed increasing and the domestic liquidity is expected to widen marginally, there has not been a significant reversal from the perspective of the profit trend, so we judge that the sharp rise of liquor stocks does not mean the switch of market style, which needs a certain period of time to complete. The approximate rate of the next quarter is cycle and Consumption has a stage of mutual performance, and the cycle may be relatively stronger. " He said.

Some public investors also said that there was no need to pay too much attention to the problem of style switching, which was not the cause of the plate market trend. Chen Jianjun, consumption theme fund manager of Chuangjin Hexin, "Market style is the result of stock price performance rather than the cause. The so-called switching we see is actually driven by the medium and long term fundamentals of the plate and expectations not reflected in the stock price, so the cycle and consumption are not antagonistic. I personally do not agree with the statement of style switching, so next, the cycle and consumption with good fundamentals have opportunities."

Zou Yun of Cinda Bank of Australia Fund also expressed a similar view. In Zou Yun's opinion, "We should calm down when making investment. We don't pay attention to the sharp waves and hot topics. If the logic of the big rise is to speculate on the concept and theme, and speculate on the price, then the probability cannot be sustained; if the background of the big rise is that the valuation has entered a reasonable range, and the terminal dynamic sales and performance growth are good, then it has a cost performance ratio. It is not important to change the style. What is important is to know what kind of money you earn, what fields you are good at, and what kind of companies you travel with. Repeated horizontal leaps and half heartedness cannot obtain long-term sustainable returns. "

Of course, many fund managers tend to think that the market style is in the process of rebalancing. Yang Jianhua, deputy general manager and investment director of Great Wall Fund, said that the current round of consumer stock market is related to the valuation level and policy support of the sector. In short, on the one hand, the overall valuation of big consumption has been adjusted to a cost-effective position; On the other hand, a series of consumption promotion measures taken by the Ministry of Commerce before the festival also played a direct role in boosting consumption.

In terms of the cycle, Yang Jianhua believes that the relevant departments have pointed out that the implementation of measures such as dual control of energy consumption and power rationing should not be "one size fits all". The market expects that the policy margin may be relaxed to a certain extent in the future, and the subsequent upward momentum of the relevant cyclical products that used to go out of the market by price rising logic may be weakened.

　　 Current or better layout time of liquor

　　 The fourth quarter is expected to enjoy valuation switching

Since February this year, the liquor industry has shown a downward trend in the capital market, which has raised doubts among many investors, and many institutions have successively reduced their holdings of liquor. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, public fundraisers said that the liquor sector has ushered in a better layout opportunity.

Chen Jianjun said frankly, "Although the stock price of individual stocks in the liquor industry has dropped a lot this year, I am optimistic about the investment opportunities of liquor for a long time, because the liquor business model is excellent, and the terminal demand and company performance are excellent at present. At the same time, the valuation has been excessively worried by the market, which has killed a lot. The current is a better layout time point, and the fourth quarter is expected to enjoy valuation switching. ”

Looking forward to the future, Zhang Yuxiang will still maintain a neutral and optimistic attitude towards the wine sector, and is still optimistic about the investment opportunities of the long slope and thick snow on the track for a long time. On the whole, it is suggested that investors seek bargains and continue to pay attention to the long-term investment value of the wine sector in the form of fixed investment.

Essence Fund said that the valuation risk of the liquor sector has been released after a sharp correction. Since September, the margin of emotional repression has narrowed, and the bottoming period has gradually passed. At the early stage, the market had heavy negative expectations for liquor. At present, it can be seen that the negative expectations of the policy have gradually weakened. It is expected that liquor in the Q3 quarterly report will still be the most deterministic sub sector in the food and beverage sector. At present, it has entered the time point of valuation switching, and the valuation of liquor sector has entered a reasonable range, with a certain allocation value.

Li Wenbin, manager of Wanjia Fund, also said, "Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we think that the valuation of many liquors has begun to be in a reasonable range after a relatively large decline in the early period. We are not pessimistic about the fourth quarter as we are about the third quarter, and we can look for certain investment opportunities."

Nord Fund believes that with the gradual stabilization and recovery of the subsequent economy, it is expected that the liquor and large consumption fields will see a rise in profits and drive the repair of stock prices. At the same time, the industry is expected to start a steady growth mode in the future after experiencing substantial fluctuations in the early stage, and the next half year will be a better layout opportunity.

However, many fund managers are firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities of the baijiu race track when the time cycle is extended to the next 1 to 2 years or even longer.

Wu Yue, the director of Harvest Fund's big consumption, said that in the medium and long term, liquor is still an excellent asset in the food and beverage, consumer sector and even the A-share equity market. From the perspective of measuring the long-term demand space for high-end liquor, it is expected that the growth center of high-end liquor demand will be 10-15%, and the price increase will be strengthened under the pricing power. This price range may be a revenue growth center with a dimension of more than 10% in 5-10 years.

Wu Yue further said that it is worth mentioning that this field is not affected by technological changes, costs, policies and other factors, and the brand is the biggest barrier. With the growing competitive advantage of enterprises over the years, the time value of the brand is positive. The second reason is that the industry demand is stable, the risk of per capita consumption decline is low, and the medium and low speed performance growth period is sustainable for a long time, and the sustainable growth is relatively high.

"From the beginning of this year to the next few years, if there is no risk of extreme downturn in the economy, high-end soy sauce wine will still be the growth direction that needs close attention in the liquor industry, and it is also the direction most likely to have sharp performance returns. Liquor may not be able to win, but it is still a very good track, and there are still many opportunities, but it may be more difficult to find these opportunities than before, and we must spend more time, resources and energy to examine them. " Wu Yue said.

Zou Yun, the fund manager of Cinda Australia Bank, is also a firm believer in the liquor sector. Zou Yun said, "Many people think that most retail investors are reverse indicators. In fact, most institutions are also reverse indicators. In the fourth quarter of 2018, from liquor dealers to institutional investors, they were extremely pessimistic. Then we ushered in the bull market of 19-20 years. If we share the same knowledge and sentiment as most people, it is a very dangerous situation."

Looking forward to 1-2 years, Zou Yun is confident in the development of China's high-end liquor and a few secondary high-end brands. The reasons are as follows: First, the awareness of drinking less and drinking good wine is increasingly popular, and the trend of consumption upgrading will not change due to the policy and macro cycle; Second, the growth of China's high net worth group/middle class family is still stable. With the rise of China, the rich class in China is still expanding, which is a solid foundation for high-end liquor demand.

"Third, from the perspective of supply, although China consumes more than 7 million tons of liquor every year, the production capacity of high-end liquor is less than 100000 tons, and it is difficult for other brands to rapidly improve the supply of high-quality liquor in the future; fourth, the scene and culture of Chinese people drinking liquor will not change easily, which also leads to a stable pattern, and the threat of substitutes is relatively small. In general, high-end liquor is still one of the best business models to enjoy China's long-term national strength rising dividends. " Zou Yun said.

However, some fund companies said that after the initial decline and valuation digestion, the subsequent trend rate of liquor shares remained volatile.

Tongtai Fund believes that, from the perspective of fundamentals, the third quarter report will be released soon. Compared with the high performance elasticity of the cycle and other sectors, the industry comparison shows that the performance of liquor shares is expected to remain stable, and the industry comparison shows that the attraction is slightly insufficient.

From the perspective of industrial development trend, the policy of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, carbon neutral concept has been constantly favorable, and the performance has been improved, while the regulatory policy of people's livelihood consumption has been continuous, and the liquor consumption tax boots have not yet been implemented, which is expected to still suppress the industry's valuation. From the perspective of capital, the hedging demand for long-term assets exists for a long time, but it is also necessary to be alert to the downward impact of rising US bond yields on the valuation of such assets.

　　 Favor tax exemption, medical beauty, CXO and other consumer segments

　　 Be alert to the risk of liquidity tightening beyond expectations

For the whole consumption sector, including liquor stocks, the interviewees also said that they were not pessimistic, and those with indicators in multiple sub sectors already had good cost performance.

Wu Yue's analysis said that from the perspective of industry comparison, the chain comparison trend of performance, the potential profit elasticity next year, the degree of valuation fragmentation that still exists in optional/mandatory consumption, institutional positions and other dimensions, we believe that the mandatory consumption dimension is still the core provider of excess returns from half a year to one year.

From the perspective of industry segmentation, Wu Yue said that first of all, food and beverage is still the best track of A-share. According to overseas experience, about 50% of the 20 best performing targets in the United States in the past 50 years came from the food and beverage industry, and similar conclusions were reached in mature markets such as Japan and Europe. And A-share has also created many benchmark enterprises in liquor, dairy, condiments, meat products, beverages and other fields; Medium - and long-term high-quality individual stocks can also be added in industries such as home appliances and furniture real estate chain, tax exemption, hotels, and gambling. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the investment opportunities in the consumer sector in the fourth quarter. After the initial decline and valuation digestion of some leading consumers in the consumer sector, the bottom characteristics may be relatively obvious, and the possibility of phased strengthening in the fourth quarter is high. What should be noted is the potential risk of liquidity tightening beyond expectations.

Chen Jianjun also said optimistically, "There is room for growth in the consumption sector in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. After a period of adjustment, the risk of the current consumer industry is low. In terms of the short-term fourth quarter, the whole big consumption is a sector opportunity, and the target opportunity of excessive short-term decline is greater."

In the medium and long term, Chen Jianjun believes that the sectors and individual stocks with good fundamentals and competitive pattern have better opportunities. At present, he is optimistic about the individual stocks with fast growth in performance in high-end liquor, tax-free, medical beauty, condiments and other segments.

Yang Jianhua said that the weakening of consumption this year was affected by both valuation and fundamental factors. At present, from the perspective of valuation, the consumption sector has been adjusted for a considerable period of time and range, which is now at a reasonable level. Fundamentals are more affected by the epidemic this year, and the plate has suffered some pressure in the short term.

From the perspective of a year, Zou Yun said that the valuation of high-quality consumer goods has fallen back to a reasonable or even undervalued area, and more and more companies have shown a good cost performance ratio. The main risk of vigilance is that the credit cycle falls back faster than expected, leading to weak demand. "I think the phased credit contraction has come to an end, so I am not pessimistic. The segmentation opportunities include high-end/sub high-end liquor, beer, condiments, medical services, tax-free, stationery and other high-quality business models."

"For the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, we believe that if the epidemic is properly prevented and controlled, the domestic consumption rate will gradually recover, and next year is expected to achieve rapid growth on the basis of this year's low base. At the same time, we are also optimistic about the policy's role in boosting consumption," he said.

Li Wenbin also said that after a period of correction, from the perspective of valuation, some of the consumer sectors have now retreated to a relatively reasonable range. For example, the food and beverage PE-TTM has fallen to around the 70% quantile in the past five years, and medicine has fallen to around the 30% quantile. Many leading stocks actually have medium - and long-term allocation value. Considering the downward pressure of the future economy, superimposed liquidity may be moderately marginal loose. We expect that some long-term funds in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year will increase the allocation of the consumer sector due to the allocation, and the sector may also have a certain absolute return value.

"However, it should be noted that consumption is the sector of heavy foreign investment allocation in the past. After the Federal Reserve Taper in the fourth quarter, the upward trend of US bond interest rates and the expectation of interest rate hikes may exacerbate the volatility of foreign capital flows, and the consumer sector may also fluctuate significantly. At the same time, the consumer sector segments are also pro cyclical (such as home appliances) In the process of economic downturn, profits may also decline and fail to meet expectations. It is suggested to focus on mandatory consumption and medicine with less profit fluctuation. " Li Wenbin warned.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, Tongtai Fund believes that the general trend of consumption upgrading remains unchanged. At present, the valuation level of the consumer sector has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and the allocation value is still high. With the switch of valuation in the fourth quarter, it can gradually become optimistic in the short term. Still relatively optimistic about high-end liquor, emerging household appliances, tax exemption, CXO, medical beauty, medical services and other segments.

　　 Emotional factors lead to cyclical stock adjustment

On September 27, while the liquor sector rose sharply, the resource sector remained weak last week, and many stocks fell by the limit. Fund insiders believe that the stock price adjustment is more due to emotional factors.

Tongtai Fund believes that the stock price adjustment of the resource sector is more due to emotional factors, and the impact of fundamentals is not significant; Such stocks will have greater differentiation in the later period. The upstream resource plate related to new energy and the chemical plate with good supply and demand situation will still have room for growth, while the cyclical stocks lacking the logic of demand growth will be difficult to rebound effectively.

Tongtai Fund said that the cyclical sector has risen sharply in recent months and accumulated a large number of profit taking positions. Once there is emotional influence, the stock price fluctuates greatly. However, the expectation of power failure in many places across the country on whether enterprises will be cut off at the weekend is unclear, and there are obvious negative expectations on supply and demand.

Some recent important changes have led to the improvement of Sino US relations, and then the expected growth of the market for the strengthening of global division of labor may have unnecessarily negative associations with China's industrial chain; At the same time, as the National Day holiday is approaching, the overseas uncertainty has the greatest impact on the cycle plate, and everyone is willing to avoid risks temporarily.

Gong Chao, manager of Chuangjin Hexin New Materials and New Energy Fund, said that since September, the stock prices of cyclical industries such as steel, coal, nonferrous metals and chemical industry have fluctuated greatly. From the perspective of industry prosperity, the prices of some industrial products continued to rise in September, which was mainly driven by the supply side: power shortage and production restriction led to the limited commencement of high energy consuming enterprises, some high energy consuming industrial products were in short supply in the market, and the relevant stock prices rose significantly.

Since late September, the market began to worry about the weakening of the macro-economy and the downward trend of future demand. At the same time, the policy level began to regulate and correct the deviation. The risk of price decline of some products increased, and investors chose to sell quickly, leading to the rapid decline of relevant stock prices.

Winwin Fund said that in the near future, the cyclical stocks have been adjusted significantly, mainly because profits have concentrated upstream of the industrial chain in the past period, which is not conducive to the steady growth and the continuous growth of residents' income. In addition, as the "double control" and "double limit" policies are further strengthened, the power failure and production stoppage have caused inconvenience to residents' lives, and the related public opinion has also increased significantly.

Therefore, the expectation of policy correction is heating up, but the time, form and intensity of correction are highly uncertain, which is the most suppressed stage of cyclical stock valuation. In the future, if the final implementation of policy correction rather than correction, there is still room to adjust the cycle stocks that have been cashed in.

　　 Substantial excess return status of pro cyclical industry or has ended

　　 Be optimistic about new energy upstream materials

In the face of the continuous adjustment of cyclical stocks in the recent period, the fund manager believes that the prices of some industrial products with large increases are expected to return to normal, and the substantial excess return status of pro cyclical industries may have ended. However, the short-term, medium-term and long-term logic of the upstream resource plate related to new energy is still solid, and the subsequent market is still expected.

Fan Fei, a researcher of Nord Fund, said that from three perspectives, the state of short-term large excess returns of cyclical varieties may have ended.

Fan Fei analyzed that from the financial perspective, since bulk commodities are priced globally, one of the important influencing variables is the US dollar index and the US monetary policy. At present, although the US treasury bond yield is still near the historical low, the US monetary growth has begun to slow down. The M2 growth rate has dropped from the highest 27% to around 13%, gradually entering the normal range. With the improvement of the epidemic and the constraint of rising inflation, the US CPI in July reached 5.4%, close to a 30-year high.

From the perspective of fundamentals, Fan Fei further said that the downstream real estate, automobiles and household appliances driving the cycle change are expected to become worse, and the upstream bulk commodity price rise is expected to be difficult to transmit. From the price level, the commodity price index represented by CRB has gradually dropped from the high point of 52% year-on-year growth. If there is no other unexpected impact and disturbance factors, the time for the fastest year-on-year growth should have passed.

From the perspective of valuation, the current pro cyclical PB valuation of nonferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and mining is relatively high. The corresponding pharmaceutical industry is in the historical median after adjustment, highlighting the cost performance ratio.

Looking forward to the future, Gong Chao judged that "with the gradual normalization of industrial enterprises, the prices of some industrial products with large increases are expected to return to normal, and relevant stocks are facing adjustment pressure."

However, many investment researchers are optimistic about the upstream resource sector related to new energy. Tongtai Fund believes that the short-term, medium-term and long-term logic of the upstream resource sector related to new energy is still solid, and power outages will not occur on a large scale in the new energy industry chain (such as wind power, photovoltaic, electric vehicles, etc.); There is still a process of double clicking on valuation and performance in relevant sectors, such as phosphorus, lithium, rare earth, etc., which are mainly concentrated in chemical industry, nonferrous metals and other industries.

After the National Day holiday, the new energy upstream materials related plates will show obvious comparative advantages in the industry; After the disclosure of the third quarter report, the performance of some related enterprises grew rapidly. After the short-term stock price plummeted, the valuation performance price ratio was high, and the industry fundamentals had a strong trend, which will be fully recognized by the market.

Fan Fei concluded, "In the pro cyclical industry, except for some subdivisions driven by strong growth of new energy demand or with long-term supply constraints, the state of large excess returns is expected to have ended."

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