The National Day is coming. Food and beverage rebounded at a low level. Many fund managers began to increase their positions. Tianhong Food and Beverage Index (001631) One click purchase link>>
Liquor entering the area with medium and low value can be gradually distributed in advance, and the CSI Liquor Index (012414) one click purchase link>>
On Monday, the three major A-share indexes were divided after opening high. As of closing, Shanghai Stock Exchange Index At 3582.83, down 0.84%; Shenzhen Stock Index At 14344.29, down 0.09%; GEM It was up 0.74% at 3231.58. The total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges reached 1.37 trillion yuan, breaking through trillion yuan for 47 consecutive trading days, breaking the historical record again.
On the market, the return of the king of big consumer stocks represented by liquor has become the biggest hot spot on the market, Gujing Gong wine 、 Luzhou Laojiao And other multi share trading limits, Guizhou Moutai Up 9.50%. But at the same time, coal, chemical Non ferrous metals The upstream resource products represented by steel did not stop the downward trend, becoming an important factor that dragged down the market.
Kweichow Moutai touched the limit in the session
The front-line liquor stocks that have been preparing for nearly two months broke out yesterday. Luzhou Laojiao rose rapidly after its opening yesterday, taking the lead in closing the price limit, and its market value jumped to more than 300 billion yuan.
Guizhou Moutai, the leading liquor company, hit the intraday limit and closed at 1855 yuan, up 9.5%, with a total market value of 2.33 trillion yuan. Choice Data It shows that this is the first trading limit of Moutai in Guizhou since 2016. The previous trading limit of Moutai in Guizhou was twice in 2015, and the historical trading limit was 14 times. As of closing, Wuliangye Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao closed the trading limit, Food and beverage The overall growth rate of the sector was 6.41%, significantly ahead of the performance of all Shenyi class industries.
After hours data showed that northward funds bought liquor stocks in large quantities. On September 27, Beixiang Capital bought a net 1.477 billion yuan throughout the day, and Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye respectively received a net purchase of 1.145 billion yuan and 894 million yuan. China Merchants Securities It is believed that the valuation risk of the liquor sector has been released after a sharp correction. Since September, the margin of emotional repression has narrowed, and the bottoming period has gradually passed. The event catalysis represented by the positive communication signal released by the new commander in Maotai, Guizhou, is gradually coming.
Cyclic plate continued to decline
On the market yesterday, the traditional big consumption sector recovered, but the cyclical sectors such as chemical industry, nonferrous metals, coal, shipping and so on saw a decline in individual stocks.
Marine leader COSCO Marine Control Yesterday, it closed at 19.34 yuan. Northern Rare Earth 、 Chinalco 、 Tongling Nonferrous And other early strong shares were significantly withdrawn.
It is worth noting that yesterday's intraday PetroChina It rose again, rising 4.02% throughout the day, hitting a new stage high of 6.36 yuan in the session. If calculated from the end of August, the cumulative increase of PetroChina has reached 44.28% in the past month.
For the fourth quarter outlook of some bulk commodities, Ping An Securities believes that the production capacity of iron and steel is strictly limited in the year. In the fourth quarter, it may be "strong in finished products and weak in raw materials", and the pattern will switch to "weak in finished products and strong in raw materials" at the beginning of next year; The margin of coal supply and demand tension eased, and the roof was built in shock; Copper and nickel in nonferrous metals experienced short-term correction, and the aluminum industry had the best sustainability in its upward boom; The short-term probability of crude oil will be better, and the chemical industry as a whole will usher in the top building market.
Balanced configuration recommended by the mechanism
citic securities The strategy team said that the A-share style rotates rapidly with weekly or even daily frequency, and the daily turnover of more than one trillion seems to be hot, but the earning effect represented by the composite index is ordinary, which is undoubtedly a rapid consumption of active funds in the market, and it is expected that the marginal pricing ability of short-term funds on the market will gradually weaken.
CITIC Securities suggests that investors should play down short-term games, stay away from high volatility varieties, strengthen the allocation of value sectors, and find the positive expectation difference of subdivision tracks in combination with prosperity and valuation.
CICC He believes that the market is still in a "tangle period": after the growth plate continues to rise, it may be necessary to control the pace; The consumption related sector is in a stable period after an early decline, but the consumption data is weak or suppresses the overall performance; The early surge in the raw material sector, supported by the production restriction factor, also overspent more expectations, and the recent large-scale decline also occurred due to regulatory expectations and other factors.
CICC suggested that until the policy direction is clear, "controlling the pace and stabilizing the income" is the key point, and "more balanced allocation" is still applicable, especially in the rebalancing between leading and lagging sectors.
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