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Source financial investment report
Reporter Lin Ke
After 77 months, Guizhou Moutai Reaching the limit again, the last limit was on April 21, 2015. Moutai The long lost rally stimulated the collective rally of liquor plate. Not only that, but also the consumer sector is agitated collectively, pork And other sectors. In the view of insiders, the consumer sector may rise in a short term under the stimulus of news and policy, but in the medium and long term, fundamentals are still the key to determining the trend of the sector.
The market value of Moutai has soared by 200 billion a day
Previously, the liquor sector continued to consolidate at a low level, and the sudden start of Moutai provided strong support for the rebound of the sector. Guizhou Maotai hit a record high of 2627.88 yuan on February 18, and then fell back all the way. On August 20, it hit a low of 1525.5 yuan, and the adjusted market value in six months evaporated nearly 1.4 trillion yuan. In the subsequent bottoming process, although it bounced for many times, it finally failed.
On September 24, Guizhou Moutai announced that the board of directors of the company elected Ding Xiongjun as the chairman of the company. On September 27, Guizhou Moutai jumped into the sky and opened high, and then made a strong upward attack driven by funds. It repeatedly touched the ceiling during the session, and finally rose by 9.5% to close at 1855 yuan, with a market value of more than 200 billion yuan per day.
citic securities It is pointed out that the new leader of Moutai has shown the market a clear development idea and a clear development goal of "building a world-class listed enterprise". The brand value of Moutai and the certainty of long-term growth are expected to be further supported, and the company's long-term investment value is optimistic.
Driven by the long lost rise in Moutai, Guizhou, liquor shares broke out collectively, Wuliangye 、 Luzhou Laojiao 、 Golden Seed Wine 、 Gujing Gong wine And so on. In addition to the leading effect, the outstanding performance price ratio of industry valuation is also the reason for the pursuit of funds. Guojin Securities Analyst Liu Chenqian pointed out that in the third quarter, the dynamic sales of key leading liquor products increased steadily, product prices and inventories remained healthy, and the fundamentals of leading enterprises remained strong. In the mid autumn peak season, the channel payment is active, and it is certain that the leader will complete the annual payment collection goal by the end of September. At present, the valuations of Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, etc. have a strong cost performance ratio, and focus on the opportunities of the adjusted layout.
Good news boosts pork stocks to rise against the trend
With the sharp rise of liquor shares on Monday, the differentiation between sectors has significantly intensified, and the overall performance of the consumer sector is stronger than Market 。 In the big consumer industry, pork stocks have performed well, becoming one of the few sectors to rise against the trend.
It can be seen that after a long cycle of decline in pork, there have been signs of stabilization. At the same time, under the promotion of policies, the price of live pigs may enter the recovery channel. Recently, the concept of price rise in the secondary market has gained fund attention. If the recovery of pork price is confirmed, the sector may gain more fund attention.
On the news side, the National Development and Reform Commission said on September 16 that the second round of the first batch of pig purchase and storage work was about to start. As the effect of the purchase and storage gradually appeared, the pig price might gradually rise. Stimulated by the news, pork stocks rose sharply on the same day. safety negotiable securities Analyst Zhang Jinyi pointed out that since 2009, China Coexistence After 12 times of purchase and storage, the scale of single purchase and storage varies from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of tons. According to the average monthly consumption of 3.5-4 million tons in China, the proportion of purchase and storage in consumption is low. Considering the constraints of factors such as the storage capacity of frozen products of slaughter enterprises, the storage capacity is not enough to reverse the cyclical supply and demand pattern, but it will boost short-term demand and boost market confidence.
On September 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a notice on the issuance of the Implementation Plan for the Regulation of Pig Production Capacity (Provisional). Dongxing Securities The analysis points out that the Implementation Plan emphasizes "stability" as a whole, and the government hopes to ensure the overall stability of China's pig supply through the regulation of source capacity, so as to weaken the sharp rise and fall of pig product prices in the terminal market. The policy guidance can play a guiding role in the expected management of farmers, but the effect on the specific implementation level remains to be observed. At the enterprise level, policy support in the low ebb period is conducive to helping enterprises pass through the cycle, while the core competitiveness of enterprises is still cost advantage. Cost leading enterprises can obtain excess returns in price fluctuations, and continue to improve the competitiveness of the industry.
Valuation repair is the main driving force of the pork sector at present. the pacific ocean negotiable securities It is expected that the pig price will stabilize and rise again with the effect of storage and capacity regulation, plus the impact of autumn and winter and double section pork consumption peak season. In terms of valuation, the market value of most pig enterprises is at the historical bottom, with obvious upward space. It is suggested to focus on the investment opportunities of pig price rebound and valuation repair.
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