Looking at the future market of seven major institutions: growth is better than the small and medium-sized enterprises added by value institutions

　　 Haitong Xunyugen: Is it unhealthy for small cap stocks to lead the rise? How to see investors' concerns

The essence of the rise of small and medium-sized stocks stems from the deep decline in the early period and benefits from favorable policies. From the perspective of market characteristics, since the market rebounded on October 19, small and medium-sized stocks have risen far more than large cap stocks. We believe that this is mainly because of the deep decline of small and medium-sized stocks in the early period and the intensive introduction of private enterprise rescue policies. First, by analyzing the stock price performance from 3587 points of the Shanghai Composite Index on January 29, 2018 to 2449 points of October 19, 2018, and from 2449 points of October 19, 2018 to the rebound period, we can find that the recent trend of small and medium-sized stocks is strongly due to the previous oversold.

　　 CITIC Securities: The style of A-share is still that growth is better than value

　　 citic securities According to the latest research report, the current style of A-share is still that growth is better than value, but there will not be such an extreme market in 2013, because many growth sectors do not have the basis for rapid extension expansion in that year: on the one hand, the valuation is too low, and it is difficult to make profits outside of the company through incremental purchase, and many industries even have upside down valuations at the first and second levels; On the other hand, the goodwill problem left by the last round of extension growth and performance commitment has not been completely solved. The rebound style of growth over value is more based on the logic of relative valuation repair. A shares are still in the policy catalyzed rebound channel, and there is still room for short-term homeopathy.

　　 Jiang Chao of Haitong Securities: A new round of stock bull market is brewing in the future

When we compare the listed companies in China and the United States, we find that one of the biggest differences is that the R&D expenditure of American companies is very large. In 2017, the average R&D expenditure per company was more than 200 million dollars, while the R&D expenditure per A-share listed company was only more than 100 million yuan, nearly 10 times the difference between the two, which shows that the R&D expenditure of Chinese companies has great room for improvement.

　　 Investment promotion strategy: style conversion has been confirmed, and small and medium-sized enterprises have increased their positions

Last week, the small market index was significantly stronger than the large market index. We believe that the benefit policy will relax expectations and liquidity will improve, and A-shares are likely to return to the dominant style of small and medium-sized stocks. It is suggested to focus on TMT and secondary innovation. In addition, stable growth sectors such as real estate and infrastructure deserve attention. Institutions began to add positions, small businesses and start-ups last week. The CSRC further relaxed the disclosure requirements for mergers and acquisitions, and required to increase the disclosure of goodwill.

　　 Guojin's strategy: what to guard against in the future

Since the middle of October, A shares have experienced a round of rebound of emotional recovery. With the increase of trading volume, the trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets climbed to 475.8 billion on November 16, returning to the level of trading volume at the beginning of this year. On October 20, the CSRC released information that it supported high-quality enterprises to participate in the merger and reorganization of listed companies, and shortened the interval between enterprises whose IPOs were not approved to plan for reorganization and listing from three years to six months, which indicates that the CSRC has relaxed the A-share merger and reorganization. On November 9, the CSRC revised and released the "Questions and Answers on Issuance Supervision - Regulatory Requirements on Guiding and Regulating the Financing Behavior of Listed Companies", liberalized the restrictions on the use of raised funds, and adjusted the restrictions on the time interval of refinancing to make it more flexible, highlighting the importance that regulators attach to the stable development of the stock market in the context of significant fluctuations in the stock market. The subsequent restriction on the rebound height of A-shares is still the "downward trend of corporate profits", and the United States is in the period of shrinking its balance sheet this year, which has a negative impact on the capital flow of emerging market countries.

　　 Guangfa strategy: "seasonal law" of style switching in four seasons

For two consecutive weeks in 11.4 and 11.11, we suggested that the market style would be switched to growth stocks in the short term. Policy marginal catalysis+capital marginal increment are the main forces for this round of style switching. Historical experience tells us that the fourth quarter has always been a window period with less resistance to market style switching. Since 2010, in addition to the 13 year old style being smaller and the 17 year old style being larger, the remaining seven years have seen significant style switching in the fourth quarter (78% probability), most of which started from October to November, and 18 years also conform to the "seasonal law" of A-shares.

　　 Strategy for securities promotion: The structural rebound of A-shares, dominated by growth stocks, will continue

From a firm rebound - selecting "big innovation and small giants" - the rebound has gradually become a prairie fire - the rebound is still in its infancy. The returns of hybrid and equity fund products are also gradually improving. As of November 16, the median of mixed products was - 5%, and the median of stock products was - 15%. Looking ahead to the future, maintaining this round of rebound is a rare window period for long making this year. The structural rebound, mainly in growth stocks, will continue and remains positive. For transactional and short-term players, the risk appetite has been improved, and some hot topics can be selected, such as high transmission, M&A and restructuring expectations. At the same time, under the pressure of equity pledge, those who are concentrated in private enterprises, whose growth direction is not high, can still continue to play games. For fundamental players, the current position focuses on high growth areas, stable performance, low valuation, healthy fundamentals, the direction of "big innovation and small giant", long-term layout, medium - and long-term holding, and growing together with enterprises, will be rewarded handsomely.

Editor in charge: Wang Han